地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 2283-2291.doi: 10.11821/yj2012120015

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国降水未来情景的降尺度模拟

范泽孟1, 岳天祥1, 陈传法2, 孙晓芳3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京100101;
    2. 山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院, 青岛266510;
    3. 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院, 日照276826
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-15 修回日期:2012-07-24 出版日期:2012-12-10 发布日期:2012-12-10
  • 作者简介:范泽孟(1977-),男,云南镇雄人,副研,硕导,研究方向为气候变化与生态系统响应、生态模型与系统模拟。E-mail:fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271406,40801150);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(40825003); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2009CB421105,2010CB950904);资源与环境信息系统国家 重点实验室青年人才培养基金项目

Downscaling simulation for the scenarios of precipitation in China

FAN Ze-meng1, YUE Tian-xiang1, CHEN Chuan-fa2, SUN Xiao-Fang3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Geomatics College, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266510, Shandong China;
    3. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
  • Received:2012-04-15 Revised:2012-07-24 Online:2012-12-10 Published:2012-12-10

摘要: 基于长时间序列(1964~2007年)的全国降水观测数据, 结合经纬度数据以及DEM、 坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据, 利用空间统计方法, 在构建年平均降水降尺度模型的基础 上, 运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法对经过降尺度分析的HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a 三种情景T1~T4时段的全国未来平均降水进行高精度曲面模拟。模拟结果显示, 在T1~T4 时段内, A1Fi、A2a和B2a三种情景的全国平均降水均呈持续增加趋势。其中, 平均降水在 A1Fi情景中增加速度最快, B2a情景中增加速度最慢;A1Fi和A2a两种情景的平均降水均呈 加速增加趋势, 而B2a情景的平均降水则呈减速增加趋势。模拟结果表明, 本文构建的降尺 度模拟方法可以有效地实现IPCC GCM 的低分辨率的降水情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率的 降水数据。

关键词: 降水, 情景, 降尺度模拟, HASM 方法, 中国

Abstract: Because of most GCM simulated data with a coarse resolution (about 200-500 km),it is difficult to use these data to assess impacts of precipitation change on various ecosystems on regional and local scales,although the data can be used to effectively predict the future precipitation change on a global scale.To address the above issue,the downscaling models of precipitation are developed with the spatial statistical method in this paper, combined with series data of DEM,latitude and longitude,slope and aspect index. For validating the downscaling models,the annual precipitation is simulated under the three scenarios of HadCM3A1Fi,A2aand B2aduring the periods T1(from 1961to1990), T2(from 2010to 2039),T3(from 2040to 2069),and T4(from 2070to 2099).In the simulation process,the data resolution is downscaled from 3.75°×0.125°to 1km×1km by High Accuracy Modeling(HASM).Simulation results show that annual precipitation would continue to increase in the future 100years under the three scenarios of HadCM3 the A1Fi,A2a and B2a.During the periods from T1to T4,the rising rates of annual precipitation is the greatest under scenario A1Fi,the average levels under scenario A2a,and the lowest under scenario B2a,which might increase per decade by 14.48mm,10.92mm, and 7.21 mm,respectively.Furthermore,annual precipitation would have a changing trend of accelerated increase under scenarios A1Fi and A2a,but the increasing trend would be slowing under scenario B2ain the next 100years.The results show,which the precipitation data with a coarse resolution of IPCC GCM can be effectively downscaled to a highresolution precipitation data that could be used to assess the ecosystems and their services on the regional and local scales.

Key words: annual precipitation, scenarios analysis, downscaling simulation, HASM method, China