地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 1991-1997.doi: 10.11821/yj2012110007

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市水资源与水量平衡研究

张士锋1,3, 孟秀敬1,2, 廖强1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049;
    3. 中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-18 修回日期:2012-06-10 出版日期:2012-11-10 发布日期:2012-11-10
  • 作者简介:张士锋(1965-),男,湖北江陵人,副研究员,博士,主要从事水文与水资源研究。E-mail:zhangsf@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171032);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955304)

Research on water resources and water balance in Beijing

ZHANG Shi-feng1,3, MENG Xiu-jing1,2, LAO Qiang1,2   

  1. 1. Key Lab of Water Cycle and Related Surface Processes, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2012-03-18 Revised:2012-06-10 Online:2012-11-10 Published:2012-11-10

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摘要： 以降雨-径流-蒸散发平衡和水资源供需平衡模式为基础进行研究,得到以下结论:北京市2001～2009年系列的水资源量与多年平均系列相比,水资源产量减少了约40.1%,减少的原因既有气候因素,也有人类活动导致土地覆被变化的原因,其中气候因素占30.1%,下垫面变化导致产流减少的比重为69.9%;同时由于人口的增长,北京市人均水资源占有量从270 m3下降到114 m3.在北京市水平衡分析中,采用不同下垫面蒸散发模式,计算得到2001～2009年北京市蒸散发为494 mm,河川径流量为46 mm,入境水量为4.34 亿m3,出境水量为8.03 亿m3,超采地下水、水库净补给以及外流域引水量为6.19 亿m3.在不考虑河道内生态需水条件下,北京市的现状缺水量为4.73～5.86 亿m3.到2014年南水北调中线水到达北京以后,北京将可以在75%来水年份下保障10～15年的水资源的基本供需平衡。但是如果遭遇95%来水频率的特枯年份,北京仍然将会面临较为严重的水资源短缺问题。

关键词: 北京市, 蒸散发, 水量平衡

Abstract: According to the rainfall-runoff-evapotranspiration and the balance model of water resources supply and demand, some results are obtained as follows.(1) The annual mean amount of water resources in Beijing declined from 37.39×108 m3 to 22.33×108 m3 in 2009, a decrease of about 40.1%, which is due to climate factors (contribution rate of 30.1%) and land cover changesd induced by human activities (69.9%).(2) In recent years, the precipitation in Beijing was 485.5 mm.The evapotranspiration(during the period 2001-2009)calculated by models based on different underlying surface types was 494 mm.The amount of runoff in rivers was 46 mm.The inflow was 4.34×108 m3 and the outflow was 8.03×108 m3.The volume of groundwater overdraft, net reservoir supplies and intake water resources were totally 6.19×108 m3.(3) Without regard to the eco-water demand, the present water shortage in Beijing reaches 4.73～5.85 million m3.By 2014, with the water of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project arriving in Beijing, the water supply and demand balance will be ensured for 10～15 years on the condition of 75% inflowing water frequency.But if Beijing encounters 95% inflowing water frequency of extremely dry years, it will still face serious water shortages.

Key words: Beijing, water balance, evapotranspiration, South-to-North Water Transfer Project, water shortage