地理研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 2343-2354.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201512012

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1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征

邓辉(), 王洪波   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京,100871
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-23 修回日期:2015-11-12 出版日期:2015-12-24 发布日期:2015-12-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:邓辉(1964- ),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事历史地理学研究。E-mail: denghui@urban.pku.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230634,41330748)

Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 1368 to 1911

Hui DENG(), Hongbo WANG   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2015-06-23 Revised:2015-11-12 Online:2015-12-24 Published:2015-12-31

摘要:

搜集到1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮记录2119条,以此为基础,重建区域历史风暴潮发生的时间序列与空间分布。从年内分布情况看,苏沪浙地区历史风暴潮主要发生在6-10月,其中7-9月占80%,8月为全年最高值,占37%。68.56%的历史风暴潮发生在农历朔望日前后,其中发生在朔日前后(农历二十七至次月初四)的占35.57%,发生在望日前后(农历十三至十九)的占32.99%。小波分析结果显示:风暴潮年际变化时间序列存在54 a、30 a、17 a周期。历史风暴潮引起的海侵多发生在沿海地区,苏北地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达4 m高程,长三角地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达5 m高程,杭州湾沿岸、浙东沿海地区则分别达5 m和6 m高程。

关键词: 1368-1911年, 风暴潮, 时空分布, 海侵界线, 苏沪浙地区

Abstract:

Through 483 chorographies of the Ming and Qing dynasties and other related historical books, supplemented with contemporary extraction, 3789 notes that recorded storm disaster occurring in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 1368 to 1911 were collected. Through a careful scrutiny, 2119 notes of storm surges were sorted out. Based on these historical notes, temporal and spatial distributions of the storm surges from 1368 to 1911 were reconstructed and analyzed.

Analysis of the temporal distribution of the storm surges shows that 80% of the storm surges occurred from July to September. Nearly 68.56% of storm surges occurred monthly, in Chinese Lunar Calendar, either from 13th to 19th, or from 27th to 4th of the next month. Nearly 28.16% of storm surges occurred, either from 5th to 12th, or from 20th to 26th. The facts reflect the lunar influence. The wavelet analysis shows that there are periodic oscillations of 17 years, 30 years, and 54 years.

Most of historical notes recorded the submerged places by transgressions caused by storm surges. With analysis of historical notes and corresponding DEM of the study area, the maximum transgressive extending lines caused by serious storm surges were observed. In Northern Jiangsu Plain, the eastern area of the Fangong Dike was frequently submerged by sea water during storm surges, whose boundary line is almost identical with the 4-m contour above sea level. Along the Yellow River's old watercourse, the transgression caused by storm surges could impact Andong County, and the corresponding sea tide could reach as far as Liuhe.

In the Yangtze River Delta, to the north of Fushan, Meili, Liuhe, Yuepu, east of Qingong Dike, and south of Lihu Dike, the area is almost below the 4-m contour above sea level, which was at a high risk level to transgression. Chongming, Changxing, and Hengsha could be submerged by sea water while serious storm surges happened. Along rivers' watercourses, the sea tide caused by storm surges could reach the eastern bank of Taihu Lake.

In the northern Hangzhou Bay area, to the south of Tangzhen, Haining, Huangwan, Haiyan, Zhapu, Dushan, the area was at a high risk level to transgression. Along rivers' watercourses, sea tide caused by storm surges could reach Tongxiang, Shimen, Jiaxing, Xiushui, Jiashan. In the southern Hangzhou Bay area, to the north of Wenyan, Xiaoshan, Kanshan, Lihaisuo, Xiagaishan, Linshanwei, Sitang, Niniutang, Shitangshan, Zhenhai, the area was at a high risk level to transgression. Along rivers' watercourses, transgression could reach Shaoxing, Shangyu, Ningbo. Along the Qiantang River, the sea tide caused by storm surges could reach as far as Fuyang.

For the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang, the high risk areas threatened by transgressions caused by storm surges were limited to the narrow coastal plain, which was below the 6-m contour above sea level.

Key words: 1368-1911, storm surges, spatial and temporal patterns, maximum transgressive extending, Jiangsu and Zhejiang