地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 506-517.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201703009

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀城市群多情景空间演化模拟

黄金川1,2(), 林浩曦1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-13 修回日期:2017-01-06 出版日期:2017-03-20 发布日期:2017-03-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:黄金川(1973- ),男,河南开封人,副研究员,研究方向为城市地理与区域规划。E-mail:huangjc@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ15B01)

Spatial evolution analysis and multi-scenarios simulation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Jinchuan HUANG1,2(), Haoxi LIN1,2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-09-13 Revised:2017-01-06 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-22

摘要:

京津冀城市群是中国经济发展三大引擎之一,随着京津冀协同战略的深入推进,其空间拓展呈现出新趋势与新动力。首先,集成约束性元胞自动机、空间聚类、Logistic回归、时间迭代等算法,构建出以地理分区、宏观预测和微观分配为核心的多情景空间演化模型。然后,利用京津冀2000-2013年及规划预测的用地、交通、城镇、生态和社会经济等数据,进行模型参数识别与模拟效果验证,并从交通引导、城镇辐射、经济发展等定量揭示城市群地域空间演化的动力机制。最后,从城镇化发展速度、生态保护格局和规划政策引导三大角度进行多情景模拟,总体呈现城镇扩展速度减缓、京津用地疏解效应明显和交通引导趋势加强等特点,且主要沿京津、京保石、京唐秦和京张四条发展轴扩展。2014-2030年新增城镇建设用地共3851 km2,年均增长量226.5 km2,远低于2000-2013年的339.7 km2;其中,京津两地新增用地占比由42%下降到26%,保定和廊坊则成为未来城镇扩展的主力军,四市总增量占比达56%。

关键词: 京津冀城市群, 约束性元胞自动机, 空间演化, 情景分析, 模拟预测

Abstract:

Under the background of rapid globalization and urbanization around the world, these recent years have seen the worsening contradiction between fast-growing population and over-exploiting resources, especially in terms of increasingly deterioration of environment and ecosystem. As the main carrier of urbanization, urban agglomeration experiences the prompt socio-economy increase as well as the dramatic conflicts between human and land. It is obvious that as one of the three strongest motives of regional economy of China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration profoundly embodies the characteristics of modern urban agglomeration development. Moreover, with the continuous strengthening of policy such as Collaborative Development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, the spatial expansion of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration will take place in the long run unceasingly but also present a series of new features and dynamics. It is of great importance to construct the quantitative model for spatial evolution analysis and multi-scenario simulation, which contributes to diving deep into the micro mechanism of urbanization and historically spatial dynamics. Meanwhile, such model has very strong realistic and practical guiding significance in the context of Regional Collaborative Development. Therefore, after introducing urban and regional growth simulation theory as well as method with spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics, the paper collectively establishes Scenario Analysis and Simulation of Urban Agglomeration Spatial Evolution Model (SASUASE model) for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, which is built on the basis of Constrained Cellular Automata (CC-CA). More than that, this model integrates the neighboring concept of CA, clustering analysis of geographical spatial partition, logistic regression analysis for parameter identification and iterative algorithm based on temporal evolution, which jointly build up the synthesized algorithm for SASUASE model. The result of parameter identification and model verification shows that the proposed models perform well after applying various factors such as transportation leading, socio-economy, ecological restraints and urban affective intensity into SASUASE model. To be more specific, in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model, the paper carries out the experimental simulation and compares the simulation and reality of 2013 from the perspective of urban construction land alone. As it shows, the simulation accuracy is 81.2% and the location precision is 72.6%, which indicates that the simulation effect is good. Also, the parameters of logistic regression analysis represent the main driving force of urban expansion both in orientation and strength. As the result shows, city arterial road and highway play significant roles in driving the development of urban agglomeration, which is followed by the socio-economy factors including per capita GDP. Therefore, the paper safely makes full use of SASUASE model in simulating the expansion of urban built-up area under multi-scenarios for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in 2030. According to the simulated outcomes, the paper compares the changes of spatial development pattern in different scenarios respectively based on urbanization development speed, ecological protection pattern and planning policy guidance. On the whole, the amount of new urban construction land falls significantly while the increment of each city is badly differentiated, which shows the effect of capital dispersal policy is obvious. To be specific, the increment of new urban construction land is 226.5 km2/a, which is far below the average level between 2000-2013. The most obvious increase is found in Beijing and Tianjin, the total proportion falls from 42% to 26%, while Baoding and Langfang become the main force of the urban expansion. As for the layout features of urban expansion, the new urban construction land spreads mainly along the industrial development zones and urban agglomeration axis. The ecological protection pattern scenario greatly affects the development of cities with strong ecological protection constraints, while the planning policy guidance scenario mainly affects the micro spatial layout of new urban construction land. Decision-making supports for the adjustment of the current urban development direction, sustainable development and allocation of major infrastructure are expected in combination with the simulation results in different scenarios.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, constrained cellular automata (cc-ca), spatial evolution, senarios analysis, simulation and prediction