地理研究 ›› 2005, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 749-756.doi: 10.11821/yj2005050012

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

危福泉1, 刘高焕2, 姚新2, 蔡宗文1, 洪伟3   

  1. 1. 福建省地震局, 福州 350003;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    3. 九江市环境保护局, 江西九江 332000
  • 收稿日期:2005-02-10 修回日期:2005-07-02 出版日期:2005-10-15 发布日期:2005-10-15
  • 作者简介:危福泉(1964-),男,福建惠安人,1984年毕业于北京大学。主要从事地震地质和地理信息系统 工作。
  • 基金资助:

    科技部“十五”国家攻关计划项目(2001BA601B-04-01-06);福建省2003年重点科技攻关项目(2003Y039);福建省发展计划委员会“十五”重点项目“福建省地震重点监视防御区城市防震减灾体系工程(105-05)专题”

Design of the seismic disaster prediction and emergency simulating system and its application:taking emergency system in Yongan city as a case

WEI Fu-quan1, LIU Gao-huan2, YAO Xin2, CAI Zong-wen1, HONG Wei3   


  1. 1. Seismological Bureau of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350003,China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Jiujiang Environmental Protection Bureau,Jiujiang 332000, China
  • Received:2005-02-10 Revised:2005-07-02 Online:2005-10-15 Published:2005-10-15

摘要:

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。

关键词: 地震, 预测, 应急, GIS

Abstract:

Urban earthquake prevention and disa ster alleviation is one of the important factors which improve the ability of natural disaster prevention in the areas where earthquakes may occur frequently. Combining with the practice of constructing urban information management systems for anti-earthquake and seismic hazard reduction in Yongan City of Fujian Province,this paper not only discusses the mathematic models of earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation, but also analyses the critical techniques of model in tegration.In addition,a seismic hazard prediction and emergency simulation system was established based on GIS for seismic risk evaluation,vulnerability analys is of buildings,estimation of casualty and economic loss, search and rescue man agement. GIS has notable advantages for spatial analysis and graphic display.We can predict the influence of earthquake in virtue of many seismic mathematic models,such as the model of vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, the influence of epicentrum. By GIS and relevant models,we can identify the coverage of earthquake which can directly affect the precision of final result. It is believed that the loss of earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. Certainly,it is true.In the mathematic models, the scale and the direction of seismic grade affect the distribution range of ellipse. Another factor is also very important, that is the quality of buildings, which are affected by the materials, years and stories of a building.According to the result that leads to the formation of the models, we can take proper meas ures to reduce hazard before earthquake. The practical application of the system shows that it can not only intensify the weakness in urban earthquake preventi on according to the analysis of seismic hazard prediction result,but also provide auxiliary information for disaster affected area's decision-making and quick response.Therefore, the comprehensive abilities for urban earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation are improved evidently.

Key words: earthquake, seismic hazard, eme rgency, prediction, GIS