关键词: 流域, 土地利用, 灰色多目标规划, 密云, 情景分析

Abstract:

Land resource is one of the most essential natural resources Land use is the linkage between human and nature and the basis of all other economic activities Moreover, it is subject to and has serious impact on natural environment There are a variety of lakes and reservoirs in China A large population live in the basins of these lakes and reservoirs Too much sediment and heavy water pollution are the key problems to these basins, both of which are correlated closely with land use Thus it is very important to optimize basinland use structure The grey multi objective programming (GMOP)model was employed worldwide to solve many optimization problems such as economic development planning in countryside and water resource planning GMOP can reconcile multiple and often conflicting objectives, address information insufficiency and optimize system performance At the meantime,land use system is characterized by dynamic, multi objectivity and information insufficiency Therefore, GMOP is a very useful tool to optimize basin land use structure In this study, GMOP is applied to solve sustainable basin land use system planning, taking Miyun County as a case study Centered in GMOP, the Grey Multi objective Programming to Basin Land use(GMOPBLU) model was built and solved with the interactive adjustment method The GMOPBLU model has the ability to simulate the characteristics of the land use system,and is a valuable tool for achieving the harmonization of conflicts between environmental and economic objectives The Interactive Adjustment Method was also used in the study to modify the model structure and the coefficients to reflect the features and the possible diverse preference of the stakeholders and decision makers The Scenario Analysis Method was applied to interpret the planning results In the present study,GMOPBLU model was used to the sustainable land use planning in Miyun County as a case study Two types of alternatives were produced and analyzed with the help of Scenario Analysis and Interactive Adjustment Method Through comparison and analysis, the optimal alternative was selected,which can provide a scientific and reliable foundation for policy making The case study confirmed the practicability and operability of the GMOPBLU model It showed that GMOPBLU model is a useful tool for sustainable basin land use planning

Key words: basin, land use, grey multi objective planning, Miyun County, scenario analysis