地理研究 ›› 2003, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (5): 541-550.doi: 10.11821/yj2003050002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国SARS流行的季节性风险探讨

王铮1,2, 蔡砥1, 李山1, 郑一萍1, 王莹1, 吴兵1, 黎华群1, 陈建国1   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学地理信息教育部重点实验室, 上海 200062;
    2. 中国科学院政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100080
  • 收稿日期:2003-07-15 修回日期:2003-08-22 出版日期:2003-10-15 发布日期:2003-10-15
  • 作者简介:王铮(1954-),男,云南陆良人,研究员。主要从事理论地理学、区域管理及地理信息科学研究。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金应急资助(40345004);中科院政策与管理研究所所长基金应急资助;上海市科委资助(03dz19612);上海重中之重学科建设成果

On season risk of the prevalence of SARS in China

WANG Zheng1,2, CAI Di1, LI Shan1, ZHENG Yi ping1, WANG Ying1, WU Bing1, LI Hua qun1, CHEN Jian guo1   

  1. 1. Geo information Key Laboratory, ECNU, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2. Policy and Management Institute, CAS, Beijing 100080, China
  • Received:2003-07-15 Revised:2003-08-22 Online:2003-10-15 Published:2003-10-15

摘要:

本文对我国SARS(非典型肺炎)疫区流行期的气候特征作了统计分析。根据这种特征,提出了SARS流行的气候风险作为认识SARS流行的季节性风险的基础,最后估计了全国流行SARS的季节性风险。其结论是并非所有区域在冬季都会出现最大风险,但全国在夏季是普遍安全的

关键词: SARS, 疫病流行期, 季节性风险

Abstract:

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of the climate characters of SARS epidemic area during the epidemic disease prevalence period, 2003 Based on the analysis, it puts forward the climate risk as a foundation of the seasonal risk estimation of the prevalence of SARS and estimates the risk of the main cities in China. The results are shown in Figs. 4-7 With these figures, we found that not all the areas reach the highest risk in winter; several conclusions are drawn about epidemic law As to the climate risk, SARS tends to prevail in most provinces in China during the Chinese season of spring and autumn; however area south to the tropic of cancer will reach a high risk during the Chinese season of winter But all of them will turn to be much safer in summer In month when SARS is in its prevalence, the disease outbreak is relative with the particular weather conditions, that atmospheric inversion is liable to occur SARS tends to prevail in climate area where atmospheric inversion is easy to find Generally, lower air pollution index and higher ultraviolet radiation will prevent SARS from being epidemic; the threshold value of the air pollution index is found to be 70 with some observed data Therefore on Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau and Hainan Island the SARS has lower risk to outbreak

Key words: SARS, epidemic period, season risk

  • R188