地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2002, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 97-106.doi: 10.11821/yj2002010012

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

上海城市环境经济系统发展过程的数量分析

袁雯1, 杨凯2   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学长江流域发展研究院,上海,200062;
    2. 华东师范大学环境科学系,上海
  • 收稿日期:2001-09-07 修回日期:2001-11-17 发布日期:2011-01-27
  • 作者简介:袁雯(1965-),女,江苏常州人,博士,副研究员。主要从事区域环境演变与可持续发展研究,近年来在《Chinese Geographical Science》、《经济地理》、《人文地理》、《长江流域资源与环境》等杂志上发表论文近20篇。E-mail:yuanwen@kyc.ecnu1edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    上海市科委科技启明星计划资助项目(99QH14037);国家社科基金资助项目(99CJY007)

Quantitative process of environment and economic progress in Shanghai

YUAN Wen1, YANG Kai2   

  1. 1. Yangtze Valley Institute, East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;
    2. Department of Environmental Science, East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China
  • Received:2001-09-07 Revised:2001-11-17 Published:2011-01-27

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摘要：

本文围绕上海环境经济发展的阶段和过程 ,基于 7项原则 ,选取总人口、国内生产总值、固定资产总投资、城区人均居住面积、水质指数、环境保护投资等 10个指标 ,采用相关分析、回归分析、比较分析等手段 ,对上海 1978— 1998年间城市区域发展过程进行分析和探讨 ,寻求上海区域环境经济发展的特征和演化规律。研究结果显示近 2 0年来上海环境与经济关系之间的协调状况有一定的改善 ,在经济适度增长时期这种改善表现得较为突出 ;相关分析的结果则表明 1990 - 1998年间各项指标的相关性总体上高于 1979- 1989年间 ,且部分指标间相关系数发生了正负向的变化.

关键词: 数量分析, 环境经济系统, 上海

Abstract:

According to the targets and action plans towards sustainable development set up in China's Agenda 21-Shanghai Action Plan, based on seven principles, this paper selects ten indicators including total population, total GDP, total fixed investment, water quality index etc.to study Shanghai's regional development process during 1978-1998 through correlation coefficient and regression analysis. The aim of the study is to approach the characteristics and regulations of Shanghai's regional development and to provide bases for future needs. Research showed that the confliction between economic growth and environmental improvement has come to relax in the latest 20 years especially during the period with moderate economic growth rate at 7-8%. More close correlation occurred during 1990-1998 compared with that in 1979-1989. From the regression analysis, GDP was an indicator that can be forecasted with a relatively small error.

Key words: quantitative analysis, environment and economic system, Shanghai