贵州省拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局及影响因素研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190586

Abstract

Abstract:

Child trafficking is a long-term criminal phenomenon in China. As one of the serious crimes and complex social problems, it has attracted extensive attention from the public and academic community. Since related studies from the perspective of crime geography started late and most of these studies worked on the pattern of the country, it is urgent to concentrate on high-risk areas and key groups. In this research, we take Guizhou province, one of the major origins of child trafficking in China, as the study area. We use a series of techniques including text analysis, mathematical statistics, and spatial analysis to examine the social-demographic characteristics, spatio-temporal patterns, and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou. Major findings include: (1) more males than females are trafficked in Guizhou, with males aged 1-6 as the main group, followed by aged 12-15, aged 0 and aged 7-11. The trafficked children from Guizhou to other provinces, mainly flow from urban to rural areas while children flow into Guizhou mainly from rural to urban areas. The cross-flow between urban and rural areas is the highest crime flow mode. (2) From 1944 to 2018, the crimes of child trafficking in Guizhou can be divided into three stages: extremely low growth stage (from 1944 to 1984), high fluctuation growth stage (from 1985 to 2000), and low and medium growth stage (from 2001 to 2018). At the same time, the summer half-year and the weekday witness higher incidences of child trafficking months and weeks. (3) At the city level, the crime is predominantly found in the northwestern half of Guizhou, especially in Guiyang city. At the county level, the crime shows a pattern of divergent decline in Guiyang and its surrounding areas. At the site level, it is more common in the open space where people move frequently. The overall crime path is “from Guizhou to the eastern regions of China” and “from Sichuan and Yunnan into Guizhou”, and there is an intercity flow in Guizhou. (4) The crime of child trafficking in Guizhou is mainly affected by the natural population change, family planing policy, floating population, and economic development level.

Key words: child trafficking crime, multidimensional spatio-temporal patterns, influencing factor, Guizhou province

XUE Shuyan, LI Gang, MA Xueyao, LIU Ling, YANG Lan. The multidimensional spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou province, China[J].GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(7): 1691-1706.

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References 47

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空间场所	微观地点（%）	占比（%）
居民住宅	农村家中(10.3)、家附近(7)、小区内(3)、亲戚家(0.6)	20.9
空旷环境	村庄里(20.2)、上学路上(2.1)、公路边(1)、河边(1)、铁路边(0.4)、田里(0.3)	25.0
交通工具	火车上(0.3)、汽车上(0.1)、轮船上(0.1)	0.5
人员相对稳定的封闭型空间	工地厂区(4.8)、学校内(4.4)、机关单位及其附近(2)、工作地(1.7)、福利院(0.2)	13.1
人员流动频繁的封闭型空间	车站(5.7)、商场(1.9)、宾馆(1.6)、医院(1.6)、电影院(0.7)、娱乐场所(0.1)	11.6
人员流动频繁的开放型空间	街道里巷(17.4)、集市(7.5)、公园(2.1)、广场(1)、景区(0.7)、公厕附近（0.2）	28.9

编码	影响因素	替代指标	样本量	样本均值	样本方差	标准差
V₁	经济发展水平	城乡收入比	40	3.1245	0.394	0.628
V₂	生育政策	生育政策不符合率（%）	40	19.4376	216.890	14.730
V₃	人口自然变动	人口出生率（%）	40	19.2265	21.940	4.684
V₄	流动人口	流动人口占总人口比率（%）	40	0.1152	0.302	0.138
V₅	就业状况	城镇登记失业率（%）	40	4.0255	1.444	1.202
V₆	文化观念	中等以下受教育占比（%）	40	6.5878	1.270	1.613

因变量		回归系数与共线性诊断	影响因素						回归结果
因变量		回归系数与共线性诊断	V₁	V₂	V₃	V₄	V₅		常数项	F检验值	调整后的R²
总犯罪率		非标准化系数	0.021***	0.001***	0.004***	0.120***			-0.163	31.837***	0.760
		标准化系数	0.564***	0.831***	0.868***	0.715***
		VIF	2.270	1.710	4.091	3.850
性别（犯罪率）	男童	非标准化系数	0.018***	0.001***	0.004***	0.100***			-0.146	31.211***	0.756
		标准化系数	0.570***	0.808***	0.894***	0.687***
		VIF	2.270	1.710	4.091	3.850
年龄（犯罪率）	婴儿期	非标准化系数		0.000***					-0.006	42.215***	0.514
		标准化系数		0.725***
		VIF		1.000
	幼儿期	非标准化系数	0.010***	0.001***	0.001***	0.035**		-0.068		35.336***	0.779
		标准化系数	0.587***	0.910***	0.650***	0.456**
		VIF	4.269	1.413	5.464	5.312
	学龄前期	非标准化系数	0.009***	0.001***	0.002***	0.050***	0.002*	-0.077		19.212***	0.700
		标准化系数	0.554***	0.801***	0.827***	0.684***	0.225*
		VIF	2.283	2.181	5.025	3.868	1.449

The multidimensional spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou province, China

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