GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 31-42.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201401004

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PGIS-based probabilistic community flood disaster risk assessment:A case of Taining County Town, Fujian Province

LI Weijiang, WEN Jiahong, WU Yanjuan   

  1. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
  • Received:2012-11-12 Revised:2013-03-17 Online:2014-01-10 Published:2014-01-10

Abstract: We carried out a case study of community-scale flood disaster risk assessment in Taining, Fujian, China, using a PGIS method and probabilistic (scenario) risk analysis model. The relationship between flood hazard intensity and exceedance probability in the study area was calculated using historical data of 13 flood events that occurred between 1949-2011. Our analysis shows that the annual probability of exceedance (AEP) of flood is 1.6% with a peak discharge of 2929.18 m3/s and a peak water level of 281.50 m on the scenario of 1.6% AEP, the inundation area is up to 1.3 km2, covering approximately 31.0% of the total area of the county town, the deepest inundation depth is over 3.5 m, and the maximum inundation time is over 10 hours. There are 1846 (42.2% of the total) buildings affected by the floods. Three disaster loss formulae were established based on loss information derived from the damaged buildings, household properties and retail store properties, respectively, and then loss estimation were conducted, and loss distribution was mapped. The results show that, the impacts of flood disaster on the community are significant, and it is necessary to make emergency planning and establish an early warning system for flood disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: PGIS, community, flood disaster, risk assessment, Taining County of Fujian Province