GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 119-131.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201401011

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Scenario analysis of urban growth in Kunming based on geosimulation system

ZHAO Yaolong1, ZHANG Ke1, PENG Yongjun1, FU Yingchun1, ZHANG Hong2   

  1. 1. School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China;
    2. School of Urban and Environmental Studies, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China
  • Received:2012-10-16 Revised:2013-05-20 Online:2014-01-10 Published:2014-01-10

Abstract: Cities in the lake watershed on the plateau of western China have experienced a rapid urbanization process and greatly changed land-use/land-cover since 1978 when China started the reform and opening up policy. The great land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) brought serious ecosystem and environmental problems to the lake watershed. Regional and urban development policies should be adjusted to improve human-friendly ecosystem and environment. This paper uses LULCC data derived from remote sensing images to calibrate geosimulation system for grasping the mechanism of LULCC in a case study of Kunming city in the Lake Dianchi watershed of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Six kinds of urban development policies are set to forecast land-use/land-cover pattern of Kunming through calibrated geosimulation system. Spatial metrics and spatial analysis methods are adopted to assess the impact of policies scenarios on the Lake Dianchi watershed. The results show that LULCC in Kunming city was characterized by typical urban sprawl since 1974. Urban road network played an important role in land-use/land-cover pattern. Urban landscape of Kunming in the future shows a characteristic of intensive and compact development trend. The integrated policy scenario of environmental protection and urban development control has positive impact on the watershed. The policy also advantages the share of urban public facilities and concentrated process of urban garbage. When the integrated policy scenario of multi-centers and urban development control has notable effect on urban size control, the policy is not appropriate in the near shore area of Lake Dianchi. Landscape preservation area should be set in the near shore area of Lake Dianchi to prohibit the transformation of agricultural land to urban built-up area. The integrated policy of environmental protection and urban development control should be carried out in the area except the near shore of Lake Dianchi.

Key words: geosimulation system, urban growth, scenario analysis, SLEUTH model, spatial metrics