潮河流域降水-径流关系变化及驱动因子识别

doi:10.11821/dlyj201409007

Abstract

Abstract:

The Chaohe River basin, located in the northeast area of Beijing district, is a very important water source for the water supply of Beijing. Under the great impacts of both climate variability and human activities, the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Chaohe River Basin has undergone significant changes during the past 40 years, which threats to the water supply security of Beijing. By using the daily rainfall and runoff series data, we mainly investigated the variation of the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Chaohe River Basin during the 1973-2010, and found that the rainfall-runoff relationship can be divided into three stages. The driving factors causing the rainfall-runoff relationship changes in each stage were identified. Double mass curve of rainfall-runoff, indexes of concentration degree and concentration period, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test methods, together with the HIMS (Hydro-Informatic Modelling System) model are used for this study. The results show that: (1) two change points were identified in the variation of the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Chaohe River Basin, and the change processes can be divided into three stages: 1973-1983, 1984-1998, 1999-2010. The mean annual runoff in each stage decreased more significantly compared with the mean annual precipitation, which make the rainfall-runoff relationship changed dramatically; (2) the sum of precipitation in rainstorm days and the runoff depth are closely related, which means that the change in the sum of precipitation in rainstorm days is the main driving factor for the obvious change of rainfall-runoff relationship in the 1983; (3) by analyzing the HIMS simulation results, we found that the underlying surface of the Chaohe River Basin during the 1999-2010 has changed significantly compared with the period of the 1973-1998, therefore human activity is the main driving factor for the obvious change of rainfall-runoff relationship in the 1998; the runoff-reducing effects caused by human activity in the Chaohe River Basin increased from 14.93% in the second stage to 25.78% after the 1998. As a result, under the impacts of both precipitation variations and continuous changes of subsurface, the runoff and water resources in the Chaohe River Basin would more likely decrease. The unfavorable situation would further cause the water resources shortage in the Beijing City. More effective and urgent measures should be implemented for water supply safety of Beijing.

Key words: the Chaohe River Basin, rainfall-runoff relationship, hydrological model, climate variability, human activities

PACS:

P333

Moyuan YANG, Yanfang SANG, Zhonggen WANG, Changming LIU. Variation of rainfall-runoff relationship and the driving factors identification in the Chaohe River Basin[J].GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(9): 1658-1667.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

References 23

[1]	夏军,刘昌明,丁永建,等. 中国水问题观察:第一卷. 北京:科学出版社,2011. 15-18.
	XIA Jun,LIU Changming,DING Yongjian,et al. Water issues Vision in China: Volume I. Beijing: Science Press, 2011. 15-18.
[2]	王纲胜,夏军,万东晖,等. 气候变化及人类活动影响下的潮白河月水量平衡模拟. 自然资源学报,2006,(1):86-91.
	WANG Gangsheng, XIA Jun, WAN Donghui,et al. A distributed monthly water balance model for identifying hydrological response to climate changes and human activities. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006. (01):86-91.
[3]	高迎春,姚治君,刘宝勤,等. 密云水库入库径流变化趋势及动因分析. 地理科学进展,2002,(6):546-553.
	GAO Yingchun, YAO Zhijun, LIU Baoqin,et al. Evolution trend of Miyun Reservoir inflow and its motivating factors analysis. Progress In Geography, 2002. (06):546-553.
[4]	李子君,李秀彬. 水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响——基于经验统计模型的评估. 地理学报,2008,(9):958-968.
	LI Zijun, LI Xiubin. Impacts of engineering measures for water conservancy on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin based on an empirical statistical model. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008. (09):958-968.
[5]	李子君. 潮河流域不同水土保持措施配置方案对年径流量的影响. 水土保持通报,2010,(1):108-112.
	Li Zijun. Impacts of different allocation plans as soil and water conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2010. (1): 108-112.
[6]	李子君,凌峰. 潮河流域水土流失治理成效及存在问题分析. 水土保持通报,2008,(3):189-192.
	LI Zijun, LING Feng. Effects and existing problems of soil and water loss control in the Chaohe River Basin. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2008. (03):189-192.
[7]	王纲胜,夏军,陈军锋. 模型多参数灵敏度与不确定性分析. 地理研究,2010,(2):263-270.
	WANG Gangsheng, XIA Jun, CHEN Junfeng. A multi-parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis method to evaluate relative importance of parameters and model performance. Geographical Research, 2010. (2):263-270.
[8]	郭军庭. 潮河流域土地利用/气候变化的水文响应研究. 北京林业大学,2012. 23-24.
	GUO Junting. Hydrological responses to land use change and climate variability in the Chaohe Watershed, Beijing, China. Beijing Forestry University, 2012. 23-24.
[9]	穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等. 双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题. 水文,2010,(4):47-51.
	MU Xingmin, ZHANG Xiuqin, GAO Peng, et al. Theory of double curves and its applications in hydrology and meteorology. Journal of China Hydrology,2010.v.30;No.178(04):47-51.
[10]	刘昌明,郑红星. 黄河流域水循环要素变化趋势分析. 自然资源学报,2003,02:129-135.
	LIU Changming, ZHENG Hongxing. Trend analysis of hydrological components in the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003. (02):129-135.
[11]	Merriam C.F. A comprehensive study of the rainfall on the Susquehanna Valley. Transactions-American Geophysical Union, 1937, 18:471-476.
[12]	Xu Z.X, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H. Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 279(1-4):144-150.
[13]	陈睿智,桑燕芳,王中根,等. 1956-2010年甬江流域降水变化特性分析. 地理科学进展,2012,(9):1149-1156.
	CHEN Ruizhi, SANG Yanfang, WANG Zhonggen, et al. Variability of precipitation in the Yongjiang River Basin during 1956-2010. Progress In Geography, 2012,(9): 1149-1156.
[14]	褚健婷,夏军,许崇育,等. 海河流域气象和水文降水资料对比分析及时空变异. 地理学报,2009,(9):1083-1092.
	CHU Jianting, XIA Jun, XU Chongyu, et al. Comparison and spatial-temporal variability of daily precipitation data of weather stations and rain gauges in Haihe River Basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, (9):1083-1092
[15]	刘昌明,王中根,郑红星等. HIMS系统及其定制模型的开发与应用. 中国科学(E辑:技术科学),2008,(3):350-360.
	LIU Changming, WANG Zhonggen, ZHENG Hongxing. Development and application of HIMS and the customized model. Science China(series E:Technological Sciences),2008,(3):350-360
[16]	王中根,郑红星,刘昌明. 基于模块的分布式水文模拟系统及其应用. 地理科学进展,2005,(6):109-115.
	WANG Zhonggen, ZHENG Hongxing, LIU Changming. A modular framework of distributed hydrological modeling system: Hydroinformatic Modeling System, HIMS. Progress In Geography, 2005, (6):109-115.
[17]	胡珊珊,郑红星,刘昌明,等. 气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流的影响. 地理学报,2012,(1):62-70.
	HU Shanshan, ZHENG Hongxing, LIU Changming, et al. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, (1):62-70
[18]	Liu Changming,Wang Guangte. The estimation of small-watershed peak flows in China. Water Resources Research, 1980, 16(5):881-886.
[19]	姜爱军,杜银,谢志清,等. 中国强降水过程时空集中度气候趋势. 地理学报,2005,(6):129-136.
	JIANG Aijun, DU Yin, XIE Zhiqing,et al. Climate trends of heavy precipitation spatial and temporal concentration in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005. (06):129-136.
[20]	姚安坤,张志强,郭军庭,等. 北京密云水库上游潮河流域土地利用/覆被变化研究. 水土保持研究,2013,(2):53-59.
	YAO Ankun, ZHANG Zhiqiang, GUO Junting,et al. Study on land use/cover changes in Chaohe River Basin in the headwaters of Miyun Reservoir in Beijing. Research of Soil and Water Conservation. 2013. (02):53-59.
[21]	黄秉维. 森林对环境作用的几个问题. 中国水利,1982,(4):29-32.
	HUANG Bingwei. A few questions about forest impact on the environment . China Water Resources. 1982. (04):29-32.
[22]	刘巽浩. 森林生态的几个问题. 中国农业资源与区划,2005,(2):14-17.
	LIU Xunhao. Several issues about forest ecology. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning. 2005, (2):14-17.
[23]	李丽娟,姜德娟,杨俊伟,等. 陕西大理河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应. 地理研究,2010,(7):1233-1243.
	LI Lijuan, JIANG Dejuan, YANG Junwei, et al. Study on hydrological response to land use and land cover change in Dali River Basin, Shaanxi Province. Geographical Research, 2010, (7):1233-1243.

	面降雨量		径流深		径流系数
	均值 /mm	UF_k统计量（趋势）	均值 /mm	UF_k统计量（趋势）	均值	UF_k统计量（趋势）
整个序列（1973—2010）第一阶段（1973—1983）	480.6 509.6	-1.61（不显著下降） -0.63（不显著下降）	45.9 70.6	-3.99（显著下降） -2.02（显著下降）	0.089 0.13	-4.12（显著下降） -2.02（显著下降）
第二阶段（1984—1998）	494.7	0.40（不显著上升）	50.8	1.53（不显著上升）	0.10	1.98（显著上升）
第三阶段（1999—2010）	436.6	0.75（不显著上升）	17.1	-0.07（不显著下降）	0.039	-0.20（不显著下降）

	纳西效率系数（NSE）	相关系数	体积误差
第一阶段（1973—1983）	0.77	0.77	0.03
第二阶段（1984—1998）	0.69	0.72	0.41
第三阶段（1999—2010）	-1.90	0.31	1.16

	实测年均径流量（亿m³）	年均用水量（亿m³）	还原后年均径流量（亿m³）	模拟年均径流量（亿m³）	人类活动减水量（亿m³）	减水效应
第一阶段（1973-1983）	3.77	0.30	4.07	3.89	——	——
第二阶段（1984-1998）	2.71	0.32	3.03	3.56	0.53	14.93%
第三阶段（1999-2010）	0.91	0.55	1.46	1.97	0.51	25.79%

Variation of rainfall-runoff relationship and the driving factors identification in the Chaohe River Basin

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 9

References 23

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10

[1]	Yongchao LIU, Jialin LI, Qixiang YUAN, Xiaoli SHI, Ruiliang PU, Gaili HE. A comparative study on the changes of ecosystem services values in the bay basin between China and the USA: A case study on Xiangshangang Bay basin, Zhejiang and Tampa Bay basin, Florida [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(2): 357-368.
[2]	WANG Suiji, LI Ling, YAN Ming. The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2013, 32(3): 395-402.
[3]	WANG Yaoli, GAO Song, LIU Yu. Exploration into urban street closeness centrality and its application methods：A case study of Qingdao [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2013, 32(3): 452-464.
[4]	GAO Chao, JIN Gao-jie. Effects of DEM resolution on results of the SWIM hydrological model in the Changtaiguan basin [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2012, 31(3): 399-408.
[5]	WEI Jie, HE Xiu-bin. The impacts of human activities on riverine sediment load: A case study of the Upper Yangtze River Basin [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2012, 31(12): 2259-2269.
[6]	KONG Yan, WANG Hong, REN Li-liang. Analysis of the runoff variation of the Yellow River to the sea and its influencing factors [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2012, 31(11): 1981-1990.
[7]	PAN Yun, GONG Hui-li, ZHU Lin, LI Xiao-juan, ZHAO Wen-ji, GONG Zhao-ning. Study on ecohydrology-based groundwater resources management in Yanqing Basin, Beijing [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011, 30(8): 1412-1420.
[8]	LI Jian-zhu, FENG Ping. The effects of underlying surface change on floods in Zijingguan watershed [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011, 30(5): 921-930.
[9]	XU Jiong-xin. Temporal variation in sediment transferring function of the Lower Yellow River and the formative causes [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2006, 25(2): 276-284.
[10]	ZHENG Hong xing, LIU Chang ming, WANG Zhong gen, WU Xian feng. Simulation of hydrological processes in Lushi Basin basing distributed hydrological model [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2004, 23(4): 447-454.
[11]	WANG Gang-sheng, XIA Jun, NIU Cun-wen. Flow routing method and its application in distributed hydrological modeling [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2004, 23(2): 175-182.
[12]	LIU Su xia, ZHANG Shi feng, LIU Chang ming. Advances on the research into the mechanism of hydrological cycle in Yellow River catchment [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2001, 20(3): 257-265.
[13]	REN Li-liang, LIU Xin-ren. Hydrological processes modeling based on digital elevation model [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2000, 19(4): 369-376.
[14]	Li Xin, Zhou Hongfei. SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES OF TARIM RIVER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 1998, 17(2): 171-177.
[15]	Ren Guoyu, Xiao Ping. ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE LAST 150 YEARSIN BAKEYAO, SOUTHEASTERN HORQIN SANDLAND,NORTHEAST CHINA [J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 1997, 16(4): 39-46.