中国大陆地区生态诅咒效应的多尺度实证检验

doi:10.11821/dlyj201605004

Abstract

Abstract:

Quantitative description of the relation between ecosystem service and human socio-economic development is one of the most critical contents in the fields of ecology, geography and economics. In this paper, based on ecosystem service theory, the concept, the characterization and evaluation methods of ecological well-being were defined. Referencing to resource curse theory, the hypothesis of ecological benediction, absolute ecological curse and conditional ecological curse were proposed from the viewpoint of generalized ecological well-being. On this basis, an empirical analysis of ecological benediction effect and ecological curse effect of all provinces in the mainland of China during 2001 and 2013 was conducted by using related data from national and regional levels. The results showed that from the per capita ecological well-being, the hypothesis of absolute ecological curse was false on the national scale. Ecological benediction effect in the eastern and western regions was remarkable. Driven by the growth of these factors such as the proportion of foreign investment, the proportion of tertiary industry, and the proportion of regional population, the increase of per capita ecological well-being in the eastern and western regions improved the development of regional economy and society. Considering the proportion of employees in the four sectors of farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery, the hypothesis of conditional ecological curse was false on both national and regional scales. Ecological benediction effect in the eastern region was remarkable. With the increase of the proportion of employees from farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery sectors, the development speed of regional economy and society increased by 36.35%. Considering the proportion of production values of farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery, the hypothesis of conditional ecological curse was true on both national and regional scales. Under the joint influence of urbanization status and road capacity, one doubling of the proportion of production values of farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery would lead to a decrease of 45.63% in the national socio-economic development speed. Moreover, under the joint effect of per capita GDP and other factors, one doubling of the proportion of production values of the four sectors would result in a decrease of 30.64%-33.49% in the regional socio-economic development. From the viewpoint of generalized human well-being, natural ecosystem contributed greatly to the improvement of regional ecological well-being per capita, surplus labor force employment and so on. Meanwhile, it was necessary to reduce the proportion of production values of the four sectors in the national economy to promote regional socio-economic development. The regions and departments concerned should take effective measures to avoid ecological curse effect by proper ecological conservation activities, and enhance ecological benediction effect with regional socio-economic development planning in the proper temporal scale.

Key words: Economic Geography, empirical test, curse effect, ecological well-being, mainland of China

Zheng ZANG, Defeng ZHENG, Caizhi SUN, Xinqing ZOU. Multi-scale empirical test of ecological curse effect in mainland of China[J].GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(5): 851-863.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

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福祉类型				耕地	林地	草地	湿地	水域	荒地
广义生态福祉	生态福祉（狭义）	资源福祉	食物生产与供给	1.00	0.10	0.30	0.30	0.10	0.01
			能源与原材料供应	0.10	2.60	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.00
			娱乐及文化服务	0.01	1.28	0.04	5.55	4.34	0.01
		环境福祉	生物多样性保护	0.71	3.26	1.09	2.50	2.49	0.34
			调洪灌溉及涵养水源	0.60	3.20	0.80	15.50	20.38	0.03
			土壤水分及营养盐保持	1.46	3.90	1.95	1.71	0.01	0.02
			释氧固碳及净化空气	0.50	3.50	0.80	1.80	0.00	0.00
			调节区域小气候	0.89	2.70	0.90	17.10	0.46	0.00
			废弃物吸纳与处理	1.64	1.31	1.31	18.18	18.18	0.01
	经济福祉		结合其他物力资本产生的附加价值	-	-	-	-	-	-
	社会福祉		通过相关产业吸纳社会劳动力就业等	-	-	-	-	-	-

指标	名称	平均值					标准差
指标	名称	全国		东部	中部	西部	全国	东部	中部	西部
y	地区生产总值年均增速	0.163	0.1538	0.1609	0.1727		0.0554	0.0486	0.0578	0.0583
X₁	人均生态福祉	5.7694	0.6797	1.3422	13.3865		18.6151	0.3551	1.0906	28.3305
X₂	农林牧渔产业从业员占比	0.2285	0.1565	0.2437	0.2852		0.0838	0.0766	0.058	0.0534
X₃	农林牧渔产业产值占比	0.18	0.1343	0.2039	0.2017		0.0779	0.1044	0.0489	0.046
Z₁	人均GDP	0.5578	1.0619	0.3672	0.2228		0.7223	0.6234	0.5732	0.6381
Z₂	外商投资占比	0.502	1.0154	0.2424	0.2044		0.632	0.8339	0.1077	0.117
Z₃	进出口总额占GDP比例	0.314	0.7049	0.0998	0.0985		0.4058	0.4735	0.0384	0.0482
Z₄	第三产业占比	0.3945	0.4262	0.3582	0.3896		0.0714	0.0932	0.0358	0.0509
Z₅	城市化率	0.4597	0.5961	0.4252	0.3576		0.1559	0.1548	0.0777	0.093
Z₆	科研投入占GDP比例	0.8777	0.7382	1.0516	0.8897		0.3471	0.2469	0.2516	0.4199
Z₇	大中专学生占人口比重	0.0011	0.002	0.0004	0.0007		0.0019	0.0029	0.0004	0.0007
Z₈	单位面积内的道路交通里程数	0.5828	0.8902	0.5943	0.2934		0.4456	0.4427	0.3502	0.2875

变量	模型Ⅰ（大陆31省份）		模型Ⅱ（东部11省份）		模型Ⅲ（中部8省份）		模型Ⅳ（西部12省份）
变量	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误
常数项	0.29465^***	0.080762	0.011667	0.038689	0.02852	0.119519	-0.074994^**	0.030358
X₁	0.000487	0.000796	0.364769^***	0.042004	-0.024393	0.019154	0.000323^**	0.000135
Z₁	0.008597	0.014839	-0.097142^***	0.009804	-0.006816	0.025081	-0.041125^***	0.005576
Z₂	0.06894^***	0.021249	0.062296^***	0.008775	0.861893^***	0.150933	0.216284^***	0.03689
Z₃	-0.191208^**	0.09395	-0.551126^***	0.03961	0.316429^**	0.122725	0.218515^***	0.041212
Z₄	0.047311	0.16692	0.330155^***	0.035866	0.193858	0.173074	0.366166^***	0.048024
Z₅	0.01114	0.007248	0.010823^***	0.001967	-0.060624	0.041708	-0.007549	0.013289
Z₆	-0.076957^***	0.023688	-0.037015^***	0.008947	-0.037464	0.028048	0.01419^**	0.006103
Z₇	-2.233683	4.537361	19.40733^***	1.892821	-79.96356^**	30.77107	8.222379^***	2.829359
Z₈	-0.073627^***	0.0162	-0.033838^***	0.007005	-0.043075^**	0.021017	0.007431	0.009589
R²	0.241426		0.946261		0.729496		0.44662
F-statistic	2.709313^***		103.7976^***		13.31548^***		12.01647^***
Durbin-Watson stat	1.819642		2.173605		2.127539		2.076301

变量	模型Ⅰ（大陆31省区）		模型Ⅱ（东部11省区）		模型Ⅲ（中部8省区）		模型Ⅳ（西部12省区）
变量	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误	系数及显著性	标准误
常数项	0.449289^***	0.118388	0.250910^***	0.009013	0.051090	0.127555	0.037589^***	0.011935
X₂	-0.154639	0.234809	0.363526^***	0.030032	0.036327	0.248363	0.020006	0.014108
X₃	-0.456354^***	0.138795	-0.334850^***	0.022284	-0.321981^**	0.124009	-0.306435^***	0.017921
Z₁	-0.023575	0.018765	-0.039019^***	0.006373	-0.056854^**	0.023624	-0.043083^***	0.004406
Z₂	0.006858	0.008456	0.007287^***	0.000231	-0.102413^***	0.037805	0.003847	0.005928
Z₃	0.085771^***	0.02847	0.065577^***	0.002491	0.878793^***	0.137308	0.272821^***	0.006799
Z₄	-0.186031	0.113239	-0.524875^***	0.008682	0.291824^**	0.123998	0.209487^***	0.012172
Z₅	-0.053604^**	0.188159	0.270796^***	0.015768	0.164897	0.164071	0.251270^***	0.013056
Z₆	-0.058531	0.029066	-0.030836^***	0.001449	-0.014004	0.026657	0.015987^***	0.002580
Z₇	0.518339	6.471192	6.160299^***	1.164739	-31.87105	26.85633	-3.378621^***	0.960282
Z₈	-0.065089^***	0.019719	-0.054177^***	0.000966	-0.036330	0.021137	-0.021328^***	0.002239
R²	0.217911		0.999504		0.742910		0.986444
F-statistic	2.305636^***		11192.72^***		13.25860^***		967.8144^***
Durbin-Watson stat	1.968481		2.139963		2.094708		2.039163

Multi-scale empirical test of ecological curse effect in mainland of China

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