GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 2141-2152.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201811002

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Simulating the effect of climate change and human activities on the forest ecosystem in the hilly red soil region of southern China: A case study in Taihe county, Jiangxi province

Zhuo WU1(), Erfu DAI2,3(), Meizhen LIN1   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2018-05-30 Revised:2018-09-18 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-23
  • About author:

    Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail:

    *Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.



The forest ecosystem structure, function, succession process and spatial pattern will change accordingly due to global climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. It is significant to explore dynamic change in forest landscape for the sustainable development of forest in the near future. Our study area is Taihe county of Jiangxi province. We combined a land-use change model (CA-Markov model), an ecosystem process model (PnET- II), and a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change in forest area, aboveground biomass under climate change, land use, harvest and the combined scenario for the period 2010-2050. The results show that: (1) Climate change has less impact on forest area in the study area. The forest area loss is reduced by the harvest treatment, and land use change leads to a more dramatic change in forest area. (2) The response of the coniferous forest to various disturbances show a difference compared to the broad-leaved forest. The coniferous forest responds more strongly to the harvest. (3) The method of coupling multiple model is benefit for the regional forest management. The simulation results can help to make some suggestions for improving and optimizing plantation structure and function in the hilly red soil region of southern China.

Key words: RCPs, climate change, forest landscape simulation, LANDIS-II, the hilly red soil region