GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 1998, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 242-248.doi: 10.11821/yj1998030004

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A STUDY ON THE TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CHINA’S GRAIN PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT

Dang Anrong, Yan Shouyong, Zhou Yi   

  1. Institute of Remote Sensing Application, CAS, Beijing 100101
  • Received:1997-11-10 Revised:1998-07-25 Online:1998-09-15 Published:1998-09-15

Abstract: The temporal variation of China's grain production development is studied comprehensively and systematically in this paper. First, the research method about temporal variation of China's grain production development is discussed. After analyzing the common method such as "stage method" and "step method", the author proposed a new opinion and a method named as "gradual variation method", and worked out a new formula to calculate "comprehensive variation ratio". Second, taking the statistic data of historical national annual total grain production (from 1949 to 1995) as source data, the author analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production development by using the author's research method. Three temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production are as follows: (1) The increase tendency of China's total grain production is very obvious; (2) The average increase ratio of China's total grain production is nearly 3%; (3) The trend of China's total grain production increase ratio is reducing. Third, the temporal variation mechanism of China's total grain production is researched by using relative analyses method and gray interrelation analyses method. The analyses result is that the first direct driving force of China's total grain production development is grain crop yield, and the second is grain crop sown area. Finally, the tendency of China's grain production development is studied and predicted by comprehensive dynamic prediction method and equal dimensional GM(1,1) dynamic prediction method. Three prediction schemes are obtained by each prediction method, and the final prediction result is that China's total grain production will be more than 500 million ton by the year 2000.

Key words: China, grain production, temporal variation, dynamic prediction

PACS: 

  • S11