GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2002, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 294-304.doi: 10.11821/yj2002030004

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On the comprehensive productive capacity and food security of future agricultural resources in China

CHEN Bai-ming   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2001-11-10 Revised:2002-03-22 Online:2002-06-15 Published:2002-06-15

Abstract:

Firstly, the paper predicted future food productive capacity of agricultural resources including cultivable and non cultivable land resources; secondly, the food demand was respectively forecasted in the coming three periods, based on the different nutrition supply amount according to the population forecast program; lastly, the comparison between the productive capacity and the demand was analyzed in the coming three periods The results shows that the grain productive capacity will be slightly greater than the demand because the food structure of prosperous level is as the demanding standard in 2010, however, in 2030 and 2050 the productive capacity will be smaller than the demand because the food structure of hypo affluent and affluent level is as the demanding standard So it would be difficult to satisfy the food demand during the period converting from the prosperous level to the affluent level if only depending on the limited cultivable land resources The balance analysis of supply and demand based on the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources shows: the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources would be higher than the food demand in the three coming periods The productive potential of non cultivable land resources should be exploited during the course of using limited cultivable land resources efficiently The food demand could be satisfied during the period converting from prosperous level to affluent level and the living standard could be improved only by depending on the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources

Key words: agricultural resources, comprehensive productive capacity, food security