GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2004, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 530-540.doi: 10.11821/yj2004040014

• Earth Surface Processes • Previous Articles     Next Articles

On China's spatio-temporal dynamics and imbalance of regional economy

LIU Xu hua1, WANG Jin feng1, MENG Bin1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;
    2. College of Arts and Sciences of Beijing Union University, Beijing 100083,China
  • Received:2003-09-28 Revised:2004-03-27 Online:2004-08-15 Published:2004-08-15


The study of regional economic variation and disparity is an important issue in the international field In this paper, firstly we introduce an important economic spatio temporal process model developed by Fingleton B ,a professor of British Cambridge University The model based on new theoretical economic geography and endogenetic growth theory is a three period simultaneous model and can be applied to real socio economy to find the dynamic variation law of manufacturing productivity growth rate Then we apply Fingleton empirical model to the economic data from year 1978 to 1998 of China's secondary industryin 30 provincies (municipalies,regions) Since the fit result of period 1991~1998 is not very good, we add two territorial variables: preferential open policy and geographic predominance And the fit result of period 1991~1998 is improved significantly Technologic gap of regions, namely post advantage has become one of the first important factors in China's economic development in recent two decades, which indicates that regional disparity in China is significant at present Preferential open policy that is Chinese economic characteristic has very important effect in promoting China's economic development, and the positive effect has been increasing over the past two decades; therefore, preferential open policy should be applied in the central and western China as soon as possible But in China the increase of production is not necessarily doomed to result in the improvement of productivity because in recent two decades only in the period of 1984 1991 the former has a positive effect on the latter, while in the other two periods, namely, 1978 1984 and 1991 1998 such an effect is even not statistically significant This phenomenon disaccords with the economic law prevailing in the western countries, so we also should pay more attention to it According to the analysis results we arrive at a conclusion that despite the regional unevenness there is a general evolution pattern of regional economy in China different from that in EU regions Furthermore in our future research on regional economy we can not simply copy the economic formula to China's economy and the Chinese characteristics must be taken into account

Key words: spatial weight matrix, GIS, spatial simultaneous equation, spatial dynamic imbalance, geographic predominance, preferential open policy