GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 789-800.doi: 10.11821/yj2010050003

• Economy and Regional Development • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Policy simulation on national large scale investment program based on the impaction of financial crisis

SUN Yi1, ZHU Yan-xin3, WANG Zheng1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Geo-information of East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    3. School of the Communist Party of Qingdao, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China
  • Received:2009-08-21 Revised:2010-02-25 Online:2010-05-20 Published:2010-05-20

Abstract:

In this paper, we aim to analyze the national large scale investment policies of China using multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. Firstly we introduce the progress of muliti-regional CGE. Secondly, we construct a multi-regional CGE model of China. In this model, we category the household by urban and rural attribution and age structure, loosen the limitation of capitals and labor flow, therefore capitals and labors can flow in regions. We design a mechanism of inter-regional equilibrium based on household utility, through which we can control and measure regional disparities. Finally, we simulate three typical scenarios of national large scale investment program. From the simulation, we find that, given the quantity of new investment, GDP growth rate of the program of investment to Central China is higher than the program of investment to the whole country and western China, the employment increase driven by the program of investment to Central China is larger than that to the whole country and western China, and also the program of investment to the central part can achieve the objective of narrowing regional disparities. So, we conclude that we should inject more investment to the central regions.

Key words: multi-regional model, computable general equilibrium, MReCGE-C, policy modeling, large scale investment, financial crisis