GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1045-1055.doi: 10.11821/yj2010060010

• Climate and Global Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Reconstruction and comparative analysis of dry/wet series in last 500 years in Hubei Province

XU Xin-chuang1,2, GE Quan-sheng1, ZHENG Jing-yun1, LIU Cheng-wu2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. School of Resources and Environment Science, Xianning College, Xianning 437100,Hubei, China
  • Received:2009-11-20 Revised:2010-03-15 Online:2010-06-20 Published:2010-06-20

Abstract:

The reconstruction of long series climate with annual resolution is an objective proposed by the IGBP-PAGES. Historical records on drought/flood are an important data source for reconstructing historical climate series. There are abundant and sequential drought/flood records in the Chinese historic documents. This research employed 6 regional drought/flood series within Hubei Province, which were derived from Collection of Historical Records on Climate in Hubei Province during Past 500 Years and covered a period from 1470 to 2000. By classification analysis of the 6 regional drought/flood series, they were classified into 3 categories which individually represented eastern, northern and southwestern regions of Hubei Province. After testing validity of the reconstructed series, we analyzed regional dry/wet variability, cycles and abrupt changes. The results showed that on multiple decades scale 1570~1770 and 1890~1950 were wet episodes and 1470~1520 and 1790~1830 were dry episodes in eastern region; 1470~1530, 1710~1750 and 1850~1910 were three wet episodes and 1470~1530 and 1770~1830 were two dry episodes in northern region; 1550~1610, 1650~1710, 1830~1890 and 1930~1990 were four wet episodes and there were no obvious dry episodes in southwestern region. The spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis illustrated that the dry/wet variations of each region were featured by several significant cycles spanning from 3~4 years to 250 years. Moreover, the three regions were commonly controlled by 50~70 years cycle. Running T-test illustrated that on centurial scale 2, 4 and 5 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern, northern and eastern regions while on 30-year scale 5, 4 and 7 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern, northern and eastern regions. The abrupt changes simultaneously occurring in three or any two regions had the same trends; the abrupt changes from dry to wet in 1822 occurred in all of the three regions.

Key words: recent 500 years, dry/wet series, climate change, Hubei Province