GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 409-416.doi: 10.11821/yj2012030003

• Earth Surface Processes • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Assessing the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in Naoli River watershed,Northeast China

YAO Yun-long1,2, WANG Lei3, LU Xian-guo2, YU Hong-xian1   

  1. 1. Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;
    3. College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Harbin 150027, China
  • Received:2011-08-22 Revised:2011-12-10 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20

Abstract: Planning for potential future changes in water yield requires an understanding not only of possible climatic changes but also how a catchment hydrology might respond to such changes.Understanding catchment responsiveness,the sensitivity of catchment stream flow to changes in climatic conditions,was a useful method to examine the impacts of climate change on water resources in a watershed.In this paper,the artificial neural network(ANN) model of Naoli River watershed was constructed to assess the sensitivity of runoff to different climatic conditions.The model took the annual mean rainfall,annual minimum temperature and maximum temperature as the input parameters,and the annual mean runoff as the output parameter.The accuracy of the model was also assessed based on the statistical methods.According to the fourth reports of IPCC,we assumed nine climate change scenarios.Under the scenarios,the sensitivity of runoff to climatic condition was assessed.The results showed that: the constructed ANN model could better simulate runoff,and it could be used for sensitivity analysis of climate change;the runoff in the upper reaches of the watershed was more sensitive than that in the middle reaches,and the runoff was more sensitive to the rainfall than to the temperature.The artificial neural network(ANN) model is a simple method used to analyze the sensitivity of runoff to climatic conditions,but this method does not place emphasis on the spatial variation in runoff sensitivity.

Key words: Naoli River watershed, runoff, climatic condition, sensitivity analysis, marshland