GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 1580-1588.doi: 10.11821/yj2012090004

• Earth Surface Processes • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on the method of annual climatic assessment of Anhui Province in the past 50 years

SHI Lei1, WANG Sheng2, SHENG Shao-xue3   

  1. 1. Anhui Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230061, China;
    2. Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;
    3. Anhui Meteorological Information Centre, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2011-12-15 Revised:2012-06-03 Online:2012-09-20 Published:2012-09-20

Abstract: The meteorological data and meteorological disaster information in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2010 were used to select the evaluating indicators of climatic event and disaster according to the extreme weather events,technical regulation and relative standard for meteorological disaster assessment.The weight of each indicator was built by principal component analysis.The anomaly assessment models of climatic event and disaster damage,including drought,flood,low-temperature freezing disasters,high temperature,wind-hailstone and fog,were built by using the weighted integration method.On this basis,the annual climatic assessment model was established with grey relational analysis,and index series for annual climatic assessment of Anhui in recent 50 years were worked out.By reference to the percentile method recommended by World Meteorological Organization(WMO),we tried to determine the threshold values,and established standards for annual climatic assessment grade,taking 0-10%,10%-30%,30%-70%,70%-90% and 90%-100% as good,fair,not good,bad and harsh climate condition,respectively.The results of annual climatic assessment for the recent 50 years showed that the climate situation in 1965,1973,1975,1993,and 1997 was good,while that in 1966,1969,1991,1996 and 1998 was bad.Among them,assessment result of 1991 was the worst.Through verification with historical meteorological disaster information and integrated disaster damage model,the method and standard of annual climatic assessment could reflect the true climate condition.The studies provide technological support for annual climatic assessment for the province,city and county units,which can be used for researching the effects of climate and climate change on the sensitive affairs by constructing evaluating indicators and annual climatic assessment model,as well as making annual climatic assessment grade according to the threshold values.

Key words: annual climatic assessment, principal component analysis, Grey Relational Analysis, disaster damage assessment, Anhui Province