GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 937-953.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805007

• Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis on regional types of grain production and evolution of grain production models in China

Zhengtong LI1,2,3(), Chengsheng YAO1,2(), Longwu LIANG3,4   

  1. 1. Center of Central China Economic Development Research, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047, China
    2. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
    3. Econometric Research Institutions, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-04-03 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-20
  • About author:

    Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail: kevinszq@163.com

    *Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.

    E-mail: dengwei@imde.ac.cn

Abstract:

Affected by both natural and economic factors, China's grain production shows a significant feature of fluctuation in different provinces, thus it is vital to study the fluctuation models of grain production and find the main driving factors. Taking the two factors of provincial grain output and its ratio compared with China's total grain output into account, the spatial transfer coefficient of grain production (STCGP) is constructed. Using STCGP, this paper divides the 31 provinces in Chinese mainland into three regional types of grain production (RTGP), including region with grain production transferred out, region with stable grain production and region with grain production transferred in, and discovers the temporal and spatial evolution and aggregation characteristics of the three regional types. Based on these findings, this paper proposes two grain production patterns (steady growth pattern and continual decline pattern), which could be further divided into six grain production evolution models (GPEM). Then the panel probit model is employed to reveal the major driving factors of the six GPEMs. The results are as follows: (1) Regions with grain production transferred in are mainly distributed in the major grain production areas and western and northern border provinces in China, while regions with grain production transferred out are mostly main grain-consuming areas and balance areas of grain production & demand. In general, the evolution of grain production shows the characteristics of "moving towards north and west" and slight aggregation; (2) The major grain production areas present a steady growth pattern, while the main grain-consuming areas and balance areas of grain production & demand prohabit a continual decline pattern, indicating that the pressure of maintaining regional food security have been shifted to the major grain production areas; (3) Expanding grain-sown areas can not only steadily increase grain production but also prevent it from decline; however, enlarging effective irrigated areas cannot achieve the above two results. Meanwhile, increasing fertilizer input and raising urbanization level and disposable income of rural residents can effectively prevent grain production from decline; however, they have no effect on promoting grain production. Based on this research, it can be concluded that in order to steadily promote the grain production in China, different measures should be taken according to different grain production models and regional types.

Key words: grain output, grain production model, regional type, spatial transfer coefficient, panel probit model