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    Earth Surface Processes
  • Earth Surface Processes
    An application of bio-economic household model to analysis of the cause for karst rock desertification in Southwest China
    Miao Jian-qing, Xie Shi-you, Yuan Dao-xian, Jiang Yong-jun
    2012, 31(6): 967-979. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060001
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    Rock desertification has been one of the three ecological disasters threatening human beings.Combating desertification relies on the analysis of human factors.The human driving force to rock desertification is farmers' economic behaviors in their contractual household lands.Through connecting field surveys with interviews,the authors collected some combined biological and economic samples from Nanchuan District of Chongqing City and constructed a bio-economic household model.The empirical result shows that humanland conflict does not obviously cause ecological disasters expected by scientists.The farmer's dependence on the land has more significant environment effect than the load on the land does.On the condition that the location and size of farmer's land is fixed,the poor farmers prefer to adopt the sustainable land use types because they rely more on the land,which results in the lower rate of karst rock desertification in their contractual household lands.This empirical result repudiates the prior viewpoint that poverty causes rock desertification.The cause of rock desertification is that the farmer's dependence on the land decreases when these farmers become migrant workers,however,the root cause of rock desertification is that the inappropriate ownership structure of land weakens the appeal of land to farmers.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Study on the transformation from vector to raster for soil data with identical data precision in the estimation of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks
    NI Yuan-long, YU Dong-sheng, ZHANG Li-ming, SHI Xue-zheng
    2012, 31(6): 980-986. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060002
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    Soil data transformed from vector to raster data is an important step for data preprocessing in most researches on regional soil carbon stocks.Based on 3 scales of soil vector databases,which are 1:50,000,1:500,000 and 1:4,000,000,a series of raster datasets with different resolutions were converted from these soil vector data.Four indices,soil type number,soil area,soil organic carbon stocks and soil organic carbon density of surface paddy soils(0-20cm)were calculated from all these vector and raster datasets respectively.Subjected to the 4indices from vector data,their relative variability(VIV,%)from raster datasets was used to assess soil data identity between the soil vector data in different scales and their responding raster datasets,respectively.Results show that optimal resolutions of raster datasets converted from these three vector data in different map scales are 0.2km×0.2km,1km×1km and 9km×9km respectively,due to the VIV of all the indices less than 1%,in which soil vector data and the responding raster dataset have an identical data precision.The optimal resolution raster data can not only meet the requisements of data precision in SOC stock researches,but also avoid data redundancy and resources wasting.The relationship between soil vector map scale and the optimal raster resolution under an identical data precision can be modeled as follows:y=0.0225x0.01233(R2=0.999),which can provide valuable reference for research on soil organic carbon stocks at regional scale.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Comparisons of the multiple East Asian winter monsoon indices and their relations to climate over eastern China
    ZHANG Zi-yin, GONG Dao-yi, HU Miao, LEI Yang-na
    2012, 31(6): 987-1003. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060003
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    The East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is one of the most active systems in northern hemisphere during boreal winter.The EAWM exerts an essential influence on controlling winter climate over most of China,and its interannual and interdecadal variabilities are of significant importance in predicting and inspecting winter climate over China.Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the 160-station observational data,a comparison for 12 EAWM indices and their relations to winter temperature and precipitation over eastern China have been performed in this paper.Furthermore,the stability of the relations between EAWM indices and temperature and precipitation in El Niňo status or La Niňa status has also been detected.The results indicate that most of the EAWM indices share the same variations year-to-year,but there are some differences between them at the same time,which suggest that the focuses of each index in capturing the integrity or partial features are different.It was found that the intensity of the EAWM system reduced obviously during the last 60 years,especially in the latest 30 years with a trend of 0.25σ/10a averaging from the 10 EAWM indices.All of the 12 EAWM indices showed intense interannual variabilities and interdecadal variations during the last six decades.Although the exact periods of each index are not unified,the dominant interannual periods of ～2 to～4a and ～8 to ～9a,and the dominant interdecadal periods of ～13.3a and ～20a of the EAWM indices can be identified from a power spectrum analysis.There are ten(eight)EAWM indices correlated significantly(0.1%)with the first mode time series(PC1)of winter temperature(precipitation)over eastern China.Among them,the Siberian High index can explain 53.3% variance in winter temperature PC1,and the East Asian meridional wind index derived from the middle-high troposphere can explain 50.4% variance in winter precipitation PC1.The relationships between each EAWM index and winter temperature and precipitation over eastern China during El Niňo status and La Niňa status are not consistent completely.So,the different reference significances of each EAWM index in El Niňo status or La Niňa status should be considered carefully when used in winter climate monitoring.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Climate variations of extreme continuous rainstorms in Hunan during 1960-2009
    ZHANG Jian-ming, LIAO Yu-fang, DUAN Li-jie, ZENG Xiang-hong
    2012, 31(6): 1004-1015. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060004
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    Using daily precipitation data of 88stations from 1960 to 2009,the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme continuous rainstorms in Hunan is examined by linear regression,wavelet analysis and abrupt change analysis.In addition,the factors affecting rainstorms in Hunan are analysed using NCEP reanalysis data.The results showed that there are high value areas with extreme continuous rainstorms in northwestern,southeastern and northeastern Hunan,and low value areas in the remaining part of the province.And the intensity of extreme continuous rainstorms may weaken in northern and northwestern Hunan.Extreme continuous precipitation may become less in central,southwestern and northwestern Hunan,but occurs more frequently in other parts.The frequency of extreme continuous rainstorm events is increasing,and the intensity is aggravated.Generally,the extreme continuous rainstorms presented variations in three quasi-periods of 2-3a,5-7a and 12-16a.The increase of extreme continuous rainstorms is characterized by abrupt changes from the 1990s to early 2000s.Interaction between topography and air flow is one of the main reasons for spatial difference of extreme continuous rainstorms in Hunan.Atmospheric moisture content and net gain of moisture in west and south mountainous areas is more than those in the central and northern plains.There is a good correspondence between the net moisture gain or net moisture loss and extreme continuous rainstorms distribution in Hunan.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Scenarios analysis of land use change based on CLUE model in Jiangxi Province by 2030
    GUO Yan-feng, YU Xiu-bo, JIANG Lu-guang, ZHA Liang-song
    2012, 31(6): 1016-1028. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060005
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    Using CLUE(The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects)model based on GIS spatial analysis and statistics,this paper introduced three scenarios("Business as Usual Scenario","Planned Scenario"and"Optimal Scenario")to simulate the land use spatial change in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2030.The paper has developed three scenarios on land use change to conduct a comparative analysis.Scenarios provide an effective tool to assess the risks of current land use patterns and the policy options,and offer more comprehensive and meaningful scientific information to policy-makers from different approaches by taking various factors into account.As a result,scenario analysis plays a critical role in this study,where nine types of land use are identified to show what might take place under different scenarios.This model is applied to simulate the future land use scenarios in the next three decades,and to validate the simulated results with the land use map in 2005.The validation suggests that the model has accurately positioned the simulated results to an appropriate spatial location.The results are shown as follows.(1)"Business as Usual Scenario".The arable lands continue to decline,and lands for construction purposes increase sharply,while forested land areas remain stable.(2)"Planned Scenario".The arable lands continue to grow,and lands for construction purposes increase slightly and remain unchanged in 2020;forested land areas show a slight change,and high-density forest areas grow;the areas of rivers and lakes decrease marginally;while the areas of marshes and peat lands grow rapidly.(3) "Optimal Scenario".The forest areas grow relatively slowly than that under"Planned Scenario";while all the areas of rivers and lakes,marshes and peat lands increase significantly.The study also suggests that the CLUE model is very powerful in predicting the future land use change,and the land use changes under different scenarios vary greatly in spatial distribution.The results are expected to provide reference for future development and revision of land use planning,as well as for sustainable land management in the study area.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    The spatial-temporal evolution of the residential land price of downtown Nanjing
    CAO Tian-bang, HUANG Ke-long, LI Jian-bo, WANG Ya-hua
    2012, 31(6): 1029-1038. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060006
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    The urban land price is highly related with space and time and has its unique features in these two aspects.With the rapid development of urban construction and continuous growth of land market,the spatial-temporal evolution of the urban land price has become increasingly complex.Taking the downtown Nanjing as an example,this paper conducts studies on the spatial-temporal evolution of urban residential land price based on statistical analysis and Kriging interpolation by the collected monitoring data of the urban land price.Two conclusions are drawn in the study.On one hand,the spatial evolution of urban residential land price is significantly influenced by macro-economy such as the overall economic situation and the real estate market;on the other hand,its temporal evolution is mainly attributed to location,natural condition,traffic construction,urban planning,public utility and environment.To be specific,(1)location is the main factor affecting the land price,while the traditional public utility still acts as a dominant one;(2)traffic convenience directly influences urban residential land price;(3)urban planning is a crucial factor which determines urban land price and its dynamic changes;(4)as residents focus more on the regional environment,favorable natural and cultural environments rise as one of the most important factors in people's choice of residence;(5)with the development of urban areas,factors such as historical ones,traditional concepts and psychological ones exert less impact on the land price.The above two conclusions are interrelated with each other,and have joint influence on the land price.This paper studies the spatial-temporal evolution of the urban residential land price in order to reflect land price in a prompt,direct and accurate way and serve the macro-control of land price as well as the reasonable use of land resources.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Farm household livelihood diversity and land use in suburban areas of the metropolis:The case study of Daxing District, Beijing
    LI Cui-zhen, KONG Xiang-bin, Xu Jian-chun
    2012, 31(6): 1039-1049. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060007
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    Based on a fieldwork data collected from 395farm households in Daxing District,Beijing,this paper firstly designated an index system appraising different resource endowment status for sampled farmers,and then classified them into five groups using non-hierarchical cluster analysis,that is,(1)intermediate land endowment with moderate non-agricultural income;(2)high land endowment with non-agricultural income;(3)intermediate land endowment with low non-agricultural income;(4)pure farmers;(5)non-agricultural household,finally examined the impact of farm household livelihood diversity on land use.Our study shows that:(1)farmer groups 1-3,pure farmers and non-agricultural households from suburban areas of the metropolis tended to take strategies such as combining agriculture and non-agriculture opportunity,staying in agriculture and leaving agricultural field respectively;(2)for farmer groups 1-3and non-agricultural households,the livelihood diversity index(LDI)for about 70% of the farm households ranged from two to three with grain crops sown areas having the biggest share of the total planting area,followed by that of economic crops;(3)for farmer groups 1-3 and non-agricultural households,local non-agricultural employment was the main choice for farm household labor with the lowest age and highest education level;(4)due to the extensive farmland conversion at district level in suburb areas of the metropolis,farmer groups from 1 to 4 were forced to be transformed into group 5.Lower return from land use continuously promoted diverse farm household livelihoods,which might cause consequences such as standstill grain production,land circulation,big-scale land properties change,and soil nutrient enrichment.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Study on development and utilization of a microscale basin:A case study in the Niujiaohe River of Taihang Mountains
    LIU Han, LÜ Bin
    2012, 31(6): 1050-1056. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060008
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    Development and utilization of micro-scale basins was regarded as an important issue for agricultural development and environmental restoration at a regional scale.In order to understand the comprehensive development of micro-scale basins in the Taihang Mountains,this paper takes Niujiaohe River as the study area.We have developed a procedure and established an index system of eco-functional regionalization including stability indices and fluctuation indices.Then we presented a method of eco-functional regionalization based on fuzzy clustering,which has significant advantages over other methods in practice.Based on the slope runoff and the degrees of the soil erosion,the whole basin in the study area can be divided into three zones: 1)inundation zone(Zone I)which is a catchment;2)steep slope zone with serious water loss and soil erosion(Zone Ⅱ),which is characterized by gully erosion;3)gully bottom zone(Zone Ⅲ),which mainly acts as a mobilization-sedimentation area.Zone I is located in the gentle water division ridge,where a base for grain can be built and activities related to farming,forestry and animal husbandry may be arranged.Zone II,featured by the steepest sloping lands,bare bed of rocks and barren soil,should take forestry as the major sector.Zone Ⅲ,the flat area,can be used for more economic and social benefits as well as a farming base.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Geography, networks and trust:The evolution of production networks in the context of global financial crisis
    MA Hai-tao, ZHOU Chun-shan, LIU Yi
    2012, 31(6): 1057-1065. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060009
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    Network evolution is one of the key issues in recent studies of evolutionary economic geography.Current studies in this field mainly focus on path dependency and routines within networks,while the mechanism of dynamics of the network remains underdeveloped yet.Previous researches tend to ignore the importance of trust on network evolution.To take this step forward,this paper unpacks the role of trust in network evolution in textiles and garment industry in Guangdong.Particularly,the authors conduct a comparative study between the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan region(eastern part of Guangdong)during the 2009global financial crisis based on in-depth interviews.The study finds out that trust is a primary variable in keeping ties between nodes in production networks.The degree of trust varies due to three critical factors:cooperation types(market relations),geographical proximity(spatial relations)and network embeddedness(social and cultural contexts).As an exogenous shock,the influence of the global financial crisis restructured the spatial structure of networks within Guangdong Province.During the restructuring process,ties with higher trust maintained such as networks in Chaoshan region,while lower trust tiers were disconnected such as networks in the Pearl River Delta.After the crisis,stronger ties in Chaoshan region were reinforced to replace some weak ties in Pearl River Delta.By doing so,Chaoshan region is playing a more important role in the global production networks of textile and garment industries.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Study on regional road traffic spatial organization in the city-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province
    JIAO Hua-fu, YANG Cheng-feng
    2012, 31(6): 1066-1078. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060010
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    Based on the investigated data of regional road passengers,this paper uses social network method to analyze the network characteristics of regional road traffic's contact in the city-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province.Combining with the current situation of regional interaction strength and its changes over the years,the article predicts the dominant direction of its economic links in the future in order to provide reference for predicting the direction of regional traffic links,and puts forward some recommendations for optimizing the spatial organization of regional road traffic.The results are shown as follows.(1)The regional road traffic's contact network has a high density.(2)On the basis of current interaction strength,it formed an economic contact pattern of three centers and two axes,i.e.,Hefei as the main center,Wuhu as a sub-center,Anqing as a regional center as well as"east-west axis"and"north-south axis".(3)The interaction strengths in the cities of researched area grow at different speeds,but their sequences change less.(4) The direction of traffic spatial organization in the future will develop along the"east-west axis"and"north-south axis",optimize the traffic around regional centers and strengthen the traffic in"two-wings".
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Study on location Features and spatial correlation of port enterprises:Taking Shanghai port backup area as an example
    CAO Wei-dong
    2012, 31(6): 1079-1088. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060011
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    The behavior space study on port enterprises is becoming a new hotspot in the modern port geography.Taking Shanghai port backup area as an example,we have established a spatial attribute database of port enterprises,collected enterprise data of manufacturing,ware-housing,commerce,commercial office industry in each county,and corresponding construction data.This study comprehensively applies spatial Gini coefficient,spatial statistics and interpolations in GIS,and coefficient of geographical linkage for medium-micro scale depiction of location characteristics and spatial correlation of major enterprises in Shanghai port backup area.The results show that the port enterprises of Shanghai has a wide distribution(city area),featured by spatial accumulation;different types of port enterprises have different location choices and enterprises take the city centre as the core,scattered along the Huangpu River most obviously while big non-vessel transportation enterprises scatter and small ones assemble;enterprise location choice is irrelevant to manufacturing industry in space while international container transportation enterprises have obvious regional dependence.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Evolution of residential differentiation in Central Shanghai City(1947-2007):A view of residential land-use types
    LIAO Bang-gu, XU Jian-gang, MEI An-xin
    2012, 31(6): 1089-1102. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060012
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    Based on long-term residential land-use data,this paper makes a calculation on the dissimilarity of diverse residential lands,which might be used as reference in the perspective of physical changes of residential spaces.(1)This study classifies residential land use of downtown Shanghai into 6 types:garden house and villa(coded as R1),high-rise apartment before 1949and workers'community after 1949(R2),commercial residential building(R2N),li-nong residential building(R3),shanty town(R4)and rural house(E6).Then,calculations are made on the spatial differentiation,i.e.the index of dissimilarity(D),spatial-modified dissimilarity index(D(s)),multi-group dissimilarity index(D(m))and spatial-modified multi-group dissimilarity index(SD(m))of various land-use types on the spatial scale of blocks and towns.(2)The result shows that the changing of residential spatial differentiation in different time series is not affected by scale effects or whether the dissimilarity index is spatial-modified or not.(3)From 1947 to 2007,in the type of garden house and villa,the dissimilarity maintains high,while the dissimilarity of commercial residential building keeps decreasing.In other types,however,the dissimilarity has a wave change.(4)D(m)of residential land-use shows that residential segregation might be notable in 1947,and decreases obviously from 1947 to 1979,while D(m)of residential space decreases obviously,and increases significantly from 1979 to 2007.(5)The relation between the hierarchy and the dissimilarity of residential land differs in various periods.Before 1949,the dissimilarity is high within high-rank residential land,whereas the index is quite low in medium and low rank residential land.During the socialist period,the rank and the dissimilarity have a positive correlation.In the transitional period,a"Vshaped"pattern can be found,which means that the dissimilarity of high rank and low rank residential land is high,and low dissimilarity can be seen in medium rank residential land.This indicates that the residential space of Shanghai has been polarized in terms of physical environment.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Quantitative study on the coordination of urban tourism and urban development:A case of Hangzhou
    LUO Wen-bin, TAN Rong
    2012, 31(6): 1103-1110. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060013
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    According to the definition of coordination between urban tourism and urban development,the paper built an evaluation index system covering six aspects,i.e.,urban economic growth,social development,public transportation construction,urban greening,environmental protection and tourism prosperity level.The method of Entropy Weighting TOPSIS was used in a case study of Hangzhou city with the sample period of 2001-2009.The results showed that the coordination coefficient of urban tourism and urban development in Hangzhou increased continuously.The highest value was 0.8043 in 2009,which was classified as the most coordinated level.The lowest value was 0.2400 in 2001.However,the improvement coefficient for each year did not tend to increase year by year.The research indicated that we should pay more attention to the coordination status induced from the existence deterioration risk due to the discontinuous growth of improvement coefficient.The policy recommendation includes that 1)the government could carry out the quantitative analysis of the coordination status developed in the paper for the better-off purpose of the coordination;2)once the tourism development strategy is made,the urban development capacity should be considered to promote their coordination;3)tourism development should be included in the urban development system to construct the coordinated development system,i.e.,the so-called"city tourism".
  • Earth Surface Processes
    The value system and its protection and utilization of natural and cultural heritage in China
    CHEN Yao-hua, LIU Qiang
    2012, 31(6): 1111-1120. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060014
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    A better understanding of the natural and cultural heritage value is the basis for dealing with the relationship between protection and utilization of the world heritage,and it is also the precondition to solve the problem of"urbanization,commercialization,artificialization"of the heritage sites.Based on the system theory,after reviewing different views and interpretations of the natural and cultural heritage value,this paper proposes the value system of natural and cultural heritages in China,which can be divided into three parts:the background value,the direct applicable value and the indirect derivative value.This value system is multi-leveled with the background value being the foundation of the other values,so we should make use of the heritage with a reasonable manner at the precondition of protection.At the same time,these three values exist in different spatial areas,namely,the background value mainly exists within the range of heritage sites,the direct applicable value exists in the heritage sites and their adjacent regions,and the indirect derivative value exists mainly outside the range of heritage sites.Therefore,to protect and use the natural and cultural heritages,we should stick to three basic principles:firstly,protecting the background value strictly to ensure that the authenticity and integrity of heritage is not compromised;secondly,using the direct applicable value appropriately through"function comprehensive utilization,product comprehensive development and industrial comprehensive development";thirdly,giving full play to the indirect derivative value to stimulate the local social and economic development.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Methodological study on development of value scale for tourists'experience in wetland parks
    WEI Xia, PAN Yi-ting
    2012, 31(6): 1121-1131. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060015
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    As experience economy began to flourish and wetland ecological tourism came into vogue,tourists'experience value of wetland parks has attracted more attention from both academic and practical circles.Investigating the approach to improving the tourists' experience value is an effective way to enhance the competitive strength of wetland parks.Although many scholars have researched structural dimension of the tourists'experience value,the concepts of the tourists'experience value still remain vague and ambiguous,especially the quantitative research of the tourists'experience value,which lacks scientific and reasonable methods for measurements.Therefore,the five steps for developing the value scale have been proposed.Through the methods of item-total correlation,exploratory factor analysis,the confirmatory factor analysis,reliability and validity test,this paper takes Xixi Wetland Park as an empirical object.Seven experience factors that include service,characteristics,education,cost,ecology,trust and concern,together with Wetland Park Tourists'Experience Value Scale(WPTEVAL)which comprises of 26items are developed to provide quantitative tools for the measurement of tourists'experience value.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    Study on subdivision index model for scene-based RS data
    TAN Ya-ping, CHENG Cheng-qi, GENG Xiao-hui
    2012, 31(6): 1132-1142. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060016
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    With the rapid development of space technology and earth observation technology,modern remote sensing technology has been able to provide worldwide observed data collected in many means in a dynamic,fast and accurate manner.In this stage,remote sensing data increase rapidly accordingly,and how to manage and retrieve these data efficiently has become a major issue in both academic and application areas.Global Subdivision System opens up new avenues for solution to this problem.This peper studies the characteristics of scene-based remote sensing data and the features of the EMD Global Subdivision Model,and then in regard to the disadvantages of the existing index methods for remote sensing data,three index models are put forward based on the EMD Global Subdivision Model:an index model based on the mapping relationships of images and meshes,an index model based on EMD data model and an index model for global subdivision data identifiers.These three index models explore the solution to the issue in three aspects.And an application example is given to create the index of linear objects and planar objects by use of the scene-based RS data subdivision index model.This study mainly addresses the following aspects.(1)This research studies the characteristics of scene-based remote sensing data and the features of the EMD Global Subdivision Model,as well as the mapping relationships and corresponding criteria between them.(2)In regard to the lack of space-time recording capabilities in the current storage and index methods for remote sensing data,an index model based on the mapping relationships of images and meshes is put forward.(3)In regard to the lack of support for multi-scale data of the current index models for remote sensing data,an index model based on EMD data model is established.(4) In regard to the lack of a unified index framework for multi-source remote sensing data,an index model for global subdivision data identifiers is put forward.(5)How to get remote sensing images from a geographic object index is studied.
  • Earth Surface Processes
    The influence of spatial-temporal factors on urban fire variation in China
    XU Bo, WANG Zhen-bo
    2012, 31(6): 1143-1156. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2012060017
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    Based on Spatial-temporal Dynamic panel data Model(SDM),with fire statistical data of China's 337 cities in 2000-2009,the influence of spatial-temporal factors on Chinese urban fire variation was analyzed,and the integrated influence of economic development and climate change on urban fire occurrence was considered.By Granger causality tests,per capita GDP and annual average relative humidity were used to represent economic development and climate change respectively.Three factors(fire rate,per capita GDP,annual average relative humidity)have long-run equilibrium relationships,so the Fire-Economy-Climate Model with the three variables is suitable.By making up spatial-temporal factors and some transformation,fire SDM(FSDM)was constructed.The results showed that,arid climate makes the fire situation worse,while economic development turns this trend back and makes the fire situation better.Response sensitivity of climate factors in fires is stronger than that of economic factors in fires,so one should make great efforts to mitigate fire variation because of future arid climate.Spatial-temporal factors have significant influence on Chinese urban fire situation,namely fire assimilation effect,fire inertia effect,and fire caution effect.Under fire assimilation effect,fire situations in different regions influence each other,and neighboring regions usually have similar fire trends,so fire administrative departments should pay more attention to cross-region cooperation;under fire inertia effect,the trend at the places where the fire situation was serious or mitigative in the earlier stage will be persisted in the future,so all regions should adjust fire administrative measures to local conditions;under fire caution effect,neighboring regions' previous serious fire situations will alarm local region to strengthen fire prevention or increase safety investment,and reduce local fire occurrence rate,so fire prevention should learn lessons from neighboring regions' serious fire situations and clear up hidden troubles.Furthermore,1st spatial lag variable is turned to an average value of neighboring units,this method simplifies the estimate process of spatial panel data model;and nonobjective spatial-temporal factors are expressed as meaningful dummy variables,which can provide reference for other studies.