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Table of Content

    10 May 2018, Volume 37 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Perspectives and Contention
    How to build Xiong'an New Area into an ecological and innovation city?
    Quansheng GE, Xiaofeng DONG, Qizhi MAO, Wenzhong ZHANG, Longjiang DU, Wei ZHANG, Chunyang HE, Dianting WU, Lachang LV, Mingxing CHEN, Jinzhu SUN, Bindong SUN, Pengjun ZHAO, Jinghu PAN, Jian PENG, Haiyang QIANG
    2018, 37 (5):  849-869.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805001
    Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (3655KB) ( )   Save

    To develop Xiong'an New Area (XNA) is one of the major national strategies and seen as the "new millennium project" in China. Sixteen experts from geography and human habitat sciences have made a thorough discussion on how to ensure Xiong'an to be built into an ecological and innovation city as a response to the implementation of the CPC Central Committee's requirements. Several key principles have been suggested as follows for the construction of Xiong'an: (1) Livability security. Specific policies should be made to optimize regional resources and environmental carrying capacity, put the safety in the first place, and effectively prevent flooding, atmospheric and other disasters, with the goal of human habitat environment favorable to live, work and play, in order to build a livable city. (2) Eco-city. Low-carbon technologies should be actively applied to organically shape the urban and regional ecological system and spatial structure. A green infrastructure system should be built. (3) Innovation. All-round innovation such as technological, cultural and management innovation should be promoted to build a new generation of sustainable development of science and technology innovation capital. (4) Regional coordination. XNA development actions should be coordinated with regional integration, as well as water system and environmental protection, through the solid regional cooperation to achieve reciprocal development. (5) Cultural city. The protection of traditional culture and the development of urban culture and arts should be attached great importance, cultural inclusiion and harmony should be advocated to explore the characteristics of a new type of urban culture with Chinese characteristics of humanities and ecology. (6) Comprehensive quality development. Emphasis should be placed on comprehensive development of urban ecology, economy and society. The concept of comprehensive high-quality and high-standard development should be highlighted to establish an international-leading-quality standard system and quality supervision should be comprehensively strengthened. Advanced social public facilities and security system should be constructed. (7) Pilot and demonstration. Xiong'an should be built into a successful model city in ecological innovation and new urbanization.

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    Articles
    Different influences of temperature on snow cover and sea ice area in the Northern Hemisphere
    Yanqun REN, Suxia LIU
    2018, 37 (5):  870-882.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805002
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    Snow and sea ice are two of the most important sources of water, which play significant roles in regional and global climate change and hydrological cycle. The MK test and lag analysis methods were employed to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of relationship between temperature and snow cover and relationship between temperature and sea ice based on NCEP reanalysis temperature data and NSIDC weekly snow and ice data. The results indicate that during the period of 1979-2013, the annual average temperature over the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic showed a significant increasing trend, while the area of snow and sea ice showed a decreasing trend. Snow cover frequency decreased with the increase of temperature in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere, but increased with the increase of temperature in the lower Yangtze River Basin and Tibetan Plateau. In much of the near land sea, sea ice cover frequency significantly decreased with the increase of temperature. The variation of sea ice area was mainly attributed to the temperature change, and the highest negative correlation occurred when temperature change was 1-2 months ahead of the change of sea ice area. For snow cover, the temperature change is also the main reason. When the temperature change was 1-4 months ahead of the change of snow cover, the negative correlation index was the highest. Compared with snow, response of sea ice to the change of temperature is 1-2 months later, which was mainly caused by larger density of sea ice than that of snow. In general, the effect of temperature change on sea ice and snow cover has consistency with different response time to temperature and shows a strong spatial variability.

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    Spatial and temporal evolution of economic spatial structure based on gravity model: A case of Henan province, China
    Mengxi QI, Han LU, Shisong CAO, Wenjuan WANG, Jing SHAO, Wenji ZHAO
    2018, 37 (5):  883-897.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805003
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    Based on spatial autocorrelation theory and economic gravity model, using the method of spatial statistics analysis, we collected the economic indicators such as per capita GDP, total import and export, and capital actually used of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Henan by foreign countires, as well as Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Further, this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution trajectories of economic spatial structure in Henan Province. The conclusions were as follows: (1) There was an economic link among each city. Zhengzhou, as the economic center of Henan, had a positive impact on the economic development of the surrounding cities. The economic links among cities were weak in southeastern Henan. Therefore, the economic spatial structure of the province showed a typical "Core-Peripheral" feature. (2) Per capita GDP of each city presents strong spatial autocorrelation. Cities in central-western Henan had become a region of high-level economic agglomeration, while eastern Henan was generally lower than the province's average of economic development. (3) Within the study area, the economic growth showed a certain degree of stability in the process of the spatial agglomeration. The process of urban economic agglomeration showed a good consistency with the evolution trend of GDP per capita and FDI. Finally, the spatial and temporal evolution of the economic spatial structure of Henan province is closely related to the economic policies that have been released by the government.

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    Measuring spatial expansion and correlations of cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration using DMSP/OLS nighttime light data
    Xin CHEN, Jian PENG, Yanxu LIU, Yunqian CHEN, Tianyi LI
    2018, 37 (5):  898-909.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805004
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    The study of spatial correlation of cities in Urban Agglomeration can provide a theoretical foundation for the structural optimization of Urban Agglomeration system. However, how to get rid of the statistical constraints of administrative unit has been regarded as one of the key difficulties in correlation quantification. This study took Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as a case study area, and the comprehensive strength of the city was assessed using DMSP/OLS nighttime light data. And spatial correlation intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration during 1993-2013 was measured with the application of gravity model. In addition, the spatio-temporal variation tendency of social-economic location index was analyzed. The results showed that, the development of cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration was unbalanced, and the spatial correlation intensity of the cities of Beijing and Tianjin was 3-5 times that of Langfang city, the third one in the uban agglomeration. The spatial correlation intensity of Baoding city was ranked the fourth, and its social-economic location index showed an increasing tendency. In addition to the cities of Langfang, Baoding and Chengde, the socio-economic location index showed a downward trend for the rest of the cities of Hebei province, which indicated that the polarization phenomenon had been intensified in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. The spatial correlation measurement based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light data focused on the main urban area, which could provide quantitative decision guidance for the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

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    Development pattern of scientific and technological innovation and typical zone in China based on the analysis of scale and efficiency
    Hanchu LIU, Jie FAN, Kan ZHOU
    2018, 37 (5):  910-924.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805005
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    The increasing influence of scientific and technological (S&T) innovation on the regional development spatial structure in China promotes the Chinese economy into a new era of endogenous growth driven by innovation. A large capital investment, from central to local, has been provided to enhance the capacity for innovation. Such an investment is important for the regional development within the transitional period. However, the S&T innovation efficiency is recognized as a more crucial factor affecting sustainable development in the long run. From the input-output perspective, this study develops a comprehensive framework for measuring the S&T innovation efficiency of 30 provinces in China. A methodology combining the distributed lag models of Almon and the variable returns to scale model is set up to assess the effective cumulative total investment scale of technological innovation and S&T innovation efficiency in China at the provincial level. Based on this assessment, the spatial variation and evolution of the S&T innovation efficiency are examined. Further, the type of region is identified by synthetically considering its investment scale and the S&T innovation efficiency, followed by several policy suggestions. The results are obtained as follows: (1) a large innovational investment gap, which is larger than the economic gap among regions, exists between coastal and inland areas; (2) the total S&T innovation efficiency of China is comparatively low, but the rising trend is continuous; (3) the S&T innovation efficiency shows an obvious spatial heterogeneity as high-efficiency provinces are mainly concentrated in wealthier coastal areas such as cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, as well as provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong; the S&T innovation efficiency experiences a gradual decline from east to west within China; (4) a high spatial coupling between the S&T innovation efficiency and the level of economic development is observed as the S&T innovation efficiency decreases with the decline in the economic level; and (5) the 30 provinces can be classified into four types in terms of their investment scale and S&T innovation efficiency: the regions that are leaders, those that need to make a breakthrough, need to be promoted, and need to develop fast. Thus, policy suggestions could be put forward according to the strength and weakness of each type of region.

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    Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and mechanism of the port logistics system along the Yangtze River
    Shilin YE, Youhui CAO, Jiawei WANG, Xinhua QI
    2018, 37 (5):  925-936.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805006
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    Port logistics, which is a special form of integrated logistics system, gradually develops through the long-term interactions of natural, social, and economic factors. The strong spatial agglomeration and organizational capacity of port logistics on global supply chain elements (such as material flow, business flow, information flow, and capital flow), makes it a critical factor influencing regional survival, competition, and development. Thus, the formation and evolution of port logistics has become a topic of research interest in the transportation geography sector. Based on the connotation of port logistics, this study takes the major 22 ports along the Yangtze River as the research object and develops a comprehensive evaluation index system of port logistics development. This study then analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and mechanism of port logistics development along the Yangtze River, by using the methods of Gini coefficient and standard deviational ellipse. Our study revealed that: (1) The development of the port logistics system along the Yangtze River has significant zonal differences. The overall development level of port logistics of the eastern, central, and western port groups is decreasing from east to west, but the growth rate is increasing from east to west. At the port level, a relatively large gap is observed in the comprehensive development level of port logistics along the Yangtze River due to the geographical environment, hinterland, transportation conditions, as well as other factors. Furthermore, we also found that the hierarchical structure characteristics of the port logistics system are evident. (2) With the constant development of the port logistics industry along the Yangtze River, development differences among the port logistics system and its three subsystems are constantly decreasing. Moreover, the effect sequence of the three subsystems on the comprehensive Gini coefficient of the port logistics system is as follows: city support, infrastructure, and logistics operation subsystem. (3) From 2004 to 2014, the gravity of the port logistics system has significantly transferred toward the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In addition, the major axes, minor axes, and area of the standard deviational ellipse of the port logistics system continued to grow. This indicates that there is an obvious decentralized tendency in the spatial pattern of port logistics development along the Yangtze River. (4) Lastly, this paper argues that the four main influencing factors of the spatio-temporal evolution of port logistics along the Yangtze River can be attributed to the balanced development of the regional economy, continuous optimization of the transportation network, intense hinterland competition among ports, and constant deepening of the regional port logistics cooperation.

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    Analysis on regional types of grain production and evolution of grain production models in China
    Zhengtong LI, Chengsheng YAO, Longwu LIANG
    2018, 37 (5):  937-953.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805007
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    Affected by both natural and economic factors, China's grain production shows a significant feature of fluctuation in different provinces, thus it is vital to study the fluctuation models of grain production and find the main driving factors. Taking the two factors of provincial grain output and its ratio compared with China's total grain output into account, the spatial transfer coefficient of grain production (STCGP) is constructed. Using STCGP, this paper divides the 31 provinces in Chinese mainland into three regional types of grain production (RTGP), including region with grain production transferred out, region with stable grain production and region with grain production transferred in, and discovers the temporal and spatial evolution and aggregation characteristics of the three regional types. Based on these findings, this paper proposes two grain production patterns (steady growth pattern and continual decline pattern), which could be further divided into six grain production evolution models (GPEM). Then the panel probit model is employed to reveal the major driving factors of the six GPEMs. The results are as follows: (1) Regions with grain production transferred in are mainly distributed in the major grain production areas and western and northern border provinces in China, while regions with grain production transferred out are mostly main grain-consuming areas and balance areas of grain production & demand. In general, the evolution of grain production shows the characteristics of "moving towards north and west" and slight aggregation; (2) The major grain production areas present a steady growth pattern, while the main grain-consuming areas and balance areas of grain production & demand prohabit a continual decline pattern, indicating that the pressure of maintaining regional food security have been shifted to the major grain production areas; (3) Expanding grain-sown areas can not only steadily increase grain production but also prevent it from decline; however, enlarging effective irrigated areas cannot achieve the above two results. Meanwhile, increasing fertilizer input and raising urbanization level and disposable income of rural residents can effectively prevent grain production from decline; however, they have no effect on promoting grain production. Based on this research, it can be concluded that in order to steadily promote the grain production in China, different measures should be taken according to different grain production models and regional types.

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    Tourism entrepreneurial migrants' micro-motivations in Chinese natural scenery sightseeing places: A case study of Tangkou town in Huangshan city
    Zhao YANG, Hao CHENG
    2018, 37 (5):  954-966.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805008
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    The group of tourism entrepreneurial migrants (TEMs) is an important part of tourism-led migrants, which has specific features. This subgroup plays a critical role in solving the problems of shortage of tourism talents, insufficient tourism supply, the instability of tourism-dependent economies and so on. It is predictable that, with the continuous evolution of the relationship between tourism and migration, this form of migrants is becoming more and more important. However, it has been relatively neglected in mainstream tourism and migration research. The existing foreign studies are mainly involved in three aspects: behavioral theoretical researches, motivational theoretical researches and social impacts researches. Among these, the driving force of TEMs' relocation is the focus of most studies. Research findings on this topic are relatively fruitful. However, most of current studies committed so much to the empirical exploration of different cases that they rarely produce more general conclusions, which are applicable to common phenomena. Thus, Taking Tangkou Town in Huangshan city as a case, this paper explores the structure and intensity of the driving force that leads to the relocation of TEMs in China. Based on that, the research applies continuum method to analyze the complexity and gradual variability of TEMs' micro-motivations from a macroscopic prospect. Results show that: (1) Different with foreign life-style entrepreneurial migrants, TEMs in Tangkou are mainly male, less educated and early married. Most of them belong to adult type (35-44), followed by young type (34 or below) and have children. Comparing migrant entrepreneurs with native, we find the differences in gender, age structure and household income structure. Relatively speaking, TEMs' motivation of operating business is more obvious and the current business is the sole work that constitutes the most important source of income of the whole household. (2) Exploratory factor analysis finds that the micro driving force of TEMs' relocation consists of ten factors, which can be summarized into six dimensions: the attraction of tourism destination, positive intrinsic values of tourism, entrepreneurship, instrumental utility, social capital and lifestyle. Compared with previous studies, this finding not only verified the hypotheses of TEMs' motivation, but also extended the theoretical implication. (3) Unlike entrepreneurial migrants in foreign developed regions who focus on "searching for a better way of life", the micro driving force of TEMs' relocation to Tangkou is very complex, which is the combination of productive and consumptive motivations. At the same time, it is also gradually changeable because of being influenced by macro socio-economic factors and values about work and life. In conclusion, this paper enriches international empirical research on the driving forces of TEMs and tries to draw a theoretical analysis framework that is applicable to more general situations.

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    The tourism commercialization of 'homes' in Dai families in Xishuangbanna
    Yiyi LU, Jigang BAO
    2018, 37 (5):  967-980.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805009
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    This paper illustrates the entire process of tourism commercialization of 'homes' in Dai families in Xishuangbanna and explores the spatial structure and nature of the commercial homes, by using two typical cases in Yunnan province, China, i.e., the Daizuyuan Garden and Mengjinglai Tourist Area, which are both featured by the operation model of "corporate plus peasant household" and are based on natural villages. The findings show that the geographical location has enabled the peripheral villages to become tourist attractions while the Dai houses as landscape have been well preserved. In the tourism commercialization process of "homes" evolving into "commercial homes", despite of a re-delimitation history between public and private spaces, the boundaries between them are still generally blurry. Main reasons for the above situation are as follows: the patterns and depth of host-guest interactions, the degree of control by collaborative enterprises over villagers, and villagers' religious beliefs.

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    Spatio-temporal evolution of interurban technological flow network in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration: From the perspective of patent transaction network
    Chengliang LIU, Mingming GUAN
    2018, 37 (5):  981-994.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805010
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    Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as an example, based on the perspective of patent transaction network and applying the big-data mining technology, social network analysis and GIS, this paper describes the regular laws of the spatiotemporal evolution of the interurban technological flow network systemically. The results are obtained as follows: First, enterprise is the main body of interurban technological transfer, while universities and institutes play a minor role in the patent transferring relationship. Besides, technological transfer tends to generate in an internal system, instead of spillovers outside. What's more, the patent related to appearance designs is less than innovative patent and utility-oriented patent. Second, as the diffusion centers of the interurban technological flow network under a hub-and-spoke organization, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou make a transfer from technical convergences to technical centers. Furthermore, Hefei, Nantong and Jiaxing become the main technological absorbers. Third, two diffusion models in the interurban technological flow network are observed. One is hierarchical diffusion model from hubs towards lower-tier cities or sub-centers. The other is contacting diffusion models and technological flows have emerged between those neighboring city pairs because of spatial proximity. Fourth, interurban technological transfers are not well distributed. Under the Matthew Effect, the dynamics of the technological flow network is self-organized with the coupling mechanism including place dependence and path creation. Finally, the spatial evolution of the network presents an evolutionary law from discrete homogeneity with single core (e.g., Shanghai) to dual-hub driven pattern (i.e., Shanghai and Suzhou) to multi-core network with a hub-and-spoke system (e.g., Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Nanjing).

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    Spatio-temporal dynamics and coupling relationship of regional tourism development pattern from the perspective of performance: A case study of Pan-Yangtze River Delta
    Rui HUANG, Kun WANG, Zhenfang HUANG, Yuqi LU
    2018, 37 (5):  995-1008.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805011
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    It is paramount to hold the trends of regional tourism development pattern from the perspective of performance, which plays a fundamental role for understanding the spatial structure of regional tourism, distributing production factors in tourism industry and improving quality and efficiency of tourism industry. Taking the Pan-Yangtze River Delta as a study case, this paper used the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), LISA Time Path and Centre-of-Gravity Path to analyze the space-time dynamism and spatial coupling of regional tourism cities' development pattern from the perspective of performance and efficiency from 2000 to 2015. Results showed that: (1) significant positive spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration in regional tourism development achievement were identified, showing strong stability in its partial spatial structure and spatial dependence direction, while the spatial correlation and agglomeration increased gradually which showed significant volatility in its partial spatial structure; (2) the differentiation of spatial dynamic pattern between the regional tourism development performance and efficiency resulted from the fact that the spatial pattern had transfer inertia, reflecting path dependence and spatial locking characteristics. Local spatial structure of regional tourism development efficiency was unstable - the changes between different types were active and frequent; (3) significant spatial coupling characteristics between the regional tourism development performance and efficiency were detected in this study. In this spatial distribution results of coupling type, Shanghai, South Jiangsu, North Zhejiang and South Anhui belonged to the High achievement-High efficiency cities, while the High achievement-Low efficiency cities gathered around regional central cities and regional central cities' surrounding areas, and North Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu, North and Central Anhui were classified into Low achievement-High efficiency or Low achievement-Low efficiency cities.

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    Study on the land use transition and its cross-sensitivity of ecological service function in the Middle of Yangtze River Economic Belt
    Yongqiang LIU, Hualou LONG, Jialin LI
    2018, 37 (5):  1009-1022.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805012
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    Taking the county of the Middle of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a basic research unit, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern features of land use transitions and ecosystem service value(ESV)based on the Landsat TM remote sensing image data of 2000, 2005 and 2010. By constructing the cross-sensitivity response matrix, the sensitivity of ecosystem service value to land use transition is calculated and sensitive areas are divided. The results show: (1) The spatial distribution pattern of the land use in the Middle of Yangtze River Economic Belt is consistent with its topography. The high value areas of annual comprehensive land use change rate are concentrated in the Wuhan metropolitan area, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the Poyang Lake metropolitan area and the southern part of Jiangxi Province, while the low value areas are concentrated in the mountainous areas of central and western China, corresponding to the fast and slow areas of land use transition separately. (2) The transitions of forest and farmland to most other land types are more sensitive compared to the other land transitions, during which the transitions of forest to farmland, wetland, water area, desert and construction land are of the highest sensitivity, while the transitions of grassland, water area and desert to the other land types are of less sensitivity. (3) The ESV sensitive areas differ obviously: most of the high ecological sensitive areas of forest transformed to desert, wetland and water area are widely distributed; transitions of forest to construction land, as well as farmland to wetland, water area and construction land present a small distribution; high ecological sensitive areas of forest transformed to desert and water area are mainly distributed in mountainous and hilly areas; while the middle-high ecological sensitive areas of forest transformed to farmland are mainly found in plain and basin areas. The results can provide reference for us on how to realize the continuity and promotion of ecological service functions while simultaneously well handling the scientific management of land use.

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    Estimating the carbon emissions and influencing factors of island city: A case study in Zhoushan Islands, Zhejiang province
    Yanwei SUN, Jialin LI, Weifang LI, Renfeng MA
    2018, 37 (5):  1023-1033.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805013
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    Island cities have unique economic development paths and characteristics of carbon emissions. Quantitatively examining the evolution trends and influencing factors of carbon emissions in island cities will play an important role in guiding the constructions of "low-carbon city" and "eco-city". In this study, we chose Zhoushan Islands as a case study and used the IPCC guidelines methods to estimate its multi-sectoral carbon emissions during 2001-2015. Meanwhile, the STIRPAT model was applied to analyze the effects of energy intensity, GDP per capita and urbanization rate on carbon emissions. Based on the carbon emission effects, the future carbon emissions of Zhoushan Islands were then predicted by setting various socio-economic scenarios. The results indicated that the carbon emissions in Zhoushan have a dramatical increase, with an annual growth rate of 32% since 2001, while carbon emissions intensity followed the U-shaped changing trend, and its annual mean value was higher than that of Xiamen city. In addition, the disaggregated analysis revealed urbanization rate was the most robust driving factor of increasing carbon emissions, and energy intensity was the secondary, and GDP per capita was the weakest factor. We also found evidences in support of inverted U-shaped curve relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, and the theory inflection point of CO2 emissions was found at 10.46×104 yuan of GDP per capita (calculated at 2000 comparable prices). According to our prediction, the total amount of carbon emissions in Zhoushan Islands by 2020 and 2030 may reach 2142×104 tCO2e, and 4333×104 tCO2e, respectively. Overall, we suggested that low-carbonization of industrial structure and the improvement of energy efficiency would be the effective measures for future carbon emissions reduction of Zhoushan Islands.

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    Spatio-temporal pattern evolution of eco-efficiency and the forecast in mainland of China
    Defeng ZHENG, Shuai HAO, Caizhi SUN, Leting LV
    2018, 37 (5):  1034-1046.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805014
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    The evaluation of eco-efficiency will provide a significant prospective for understan ding the regional socio-economic development status in the mainland of China. In this paper, the water footprint and resource and environmental costs were introduced into input indexes, grey water footprint was introduced into undesirable output indexes based on water footprint theory and ecosystem service value theory. Then, the SBM model considering the undesirable outputs of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) was used to calculate the eco-efficiency, and the SDE (Standard Deviational Ellipse) model was adapted to analyze the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency. Finally, the GM(1, 1) model was employed to forecast the standard deviational ellipse parameters and visualize the future spatial pattern of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China in 2025 and 2035. The results showed that: (1) The eco-efficiency had an fluctuated downward trend during 2000-2015, the overall changing trend and changing process of eco-efficiency in four regions of China were basically consistent with the whole country. And the eco-efficiency of China demonstrated a characteristic of spatial heterogeneity, which presented a trend of "eastern region > northeastern region > central region > western region". The eco-efficiency demonstrated a obvious distribution of zonality from east to west in the initial stage, and only Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangdong remained fully effective in 2015. (2) The main factors that caused the loss of eco-efficiency were successively resource and environmental costs, grey water footprint, land input and environmental pollution. (3) The displacement of spatial pattern gravity of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China was 60.68 km from Suiping County to Luohe City in the study period, and the displacement distance in east-west and north-south directions were respectively 32.16 km and 51.13 km, respectively. The trajectories of eco-efficiency gravity showed the trend of "northwest-southeast-northwest-southeast", but its moving speed presented a process of "accelerating-decreasing-decreasing". Spatial distribution range of eco-efficiency experienced a process of "decentralized-centralized", and the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency has changed from northeast-southwest gradually to north-south in the study period. (4) The forecast results showed that eco-efficiency gravity will move to the northeast and the spatial distribution range of eco-efficiency will present a centralized tendency in the east-west and north-south in the next 10-20 years. And the spillover effect of eco-efficiency is not obvious in the future. The above evaluation results could reflect well the current situation of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China, and the forecast of spatial pattern will help the government to make some effective policies.

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