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GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH  2016, Vol. 35 Issue (3): 471-481
1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的时空演化
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地理研究    2016, Vol. 35 Issue (3) : 471- 481
1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的时空演化
刘浩1,, 马琳2, 李国平1,
1. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871
2. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871

作者简介:刘浩(1987- ),男,山东滨州人,博士研究生,研究方向为城市与区域规划,区域经济与可持续发展.E-mail: liuhao4680@126.com

李国平(1961- ),男,黑龙江拜泉人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为经济地理,区域经济,城市与区域规划.E-mail: lgp@pku.edu.cn
摘要

1990s以来京津冀地区经济增长快速,然而经济发展在行政辖区间并不均衡,且逐渐导致环京津贫困带的形成.为识别经济发展失衡格局的演化过程,首先引入DMSP/OLS夜间灯光和可比价GDP,构建"单位开发活动GDP"表征区域经济发展状况;然后运用Local Moran's I将区域经济发展格局划分为五种类型:HH富化扩散,HL富化极化,LH贫化塌陷,LL贫化制约和非显著;最后以HH类型的边界作为京津冀地区经济发展失衡界线,采用缓冲区分析探讨经济发展失衡格局的演化过程和行政区划等人为因素对经济发展的制约效应.结果表明:① 整体上,1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局不断加剧,京津富化扩散与河北贫化制约的规模与强度同时增长;局部上,受京津市区经济发展的外溢效应,京津郊区及区位优势显著的部分河北地区经济发展较快.② 与传统认知的"环京津贫困带"不同,在两个空间尺度上识别出经济发展断层,一为京津市区与郊区之间,二为京津与河北之间,且前者的区域经济发展失衡整体上较后者更为严峻.③ 1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展的失衡格局,整体上受制于城乡二元体制带来的城乡隔离效应,局部上受京津冀三地的行政制约.要实现京津冀地区经济发展的协同均衡,关键在于弱化城乡隔离,并辅以消除行政制约.

关键词: 环京津贫困带; 协同发展; 经济失衡; 夜间灯光; 京津冀地区;
Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of unbalanced economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region since the 1990s
LIU Hao1,, MA Lin2, LI Guoping1,
1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been experiencing rapid economic development since 1990. However, development has been imbalanced and has been widening the gaps in economies of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. To identify the imbalanced pattern of economic development and analyze its dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1992-2012, we first proposed a "GDP per human activity intensity" consisting of DMSP/OLS nighttime light data and the constant price of GDP to map economic development. Second, local Moran's I was applied to classify the economic development pattern into 5 types: HH (high values surrounded by high values), HL (high values surrounded by low values), LH (low values surrounded by high values), LL (low values surrounded by low values), and not significant. Third, the boundary of the HH type was used as the line between rich areas and poor areas, and the dynamics of economic development and its response to administration are analyzed by buffer analysis. The results suggest that the spatial pattern of economic development has been imbalanced during 1992-2012, and the HH type in Beijing-Tianjin and the LL type in Hebei have been increasing in area and intensity. The HL type and the LH type in Hebei and suburban Beijing and Tianjin are growing because of the spillover effect of the development in the urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin. Moreover, having a different view from the previous understanding of "one poverty region around Beijing and Tianjin", we identified wealth gaps on two spatial scales: One is inside Beijing and Tianjin, which is between urban and rural areas, and the other is between Beijing-Tianjin and Hebei. Furthermore, the wealth gap in the former scale is larger than the latter. The imbalanced spatial pattern of economic development is a result of the administrative restrictions among Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei and the urban-rural dual system. Such a result can be attributed to the difference of administrative management and policy exists not only between cities but also between the urban and rural areas of a particular city. In addition, our analysis shows that the latter scale is the main reason for the imbalanced spatial pattern. Therefore, reducing urban-rural differences and administrative constraint is important in realizing balanced economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Keyword: poverty region around Beijing and Tianjin; coordinated development; economic imbalance; DMSP/OLS nighttime light; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;
1 引言

区域经济一体化有助于推动各级各类城市地带的协同发展,如以伦敦,东京,首尔,巴黎为中心的环首都经济圈协调发展.改革开放尤其1990s以来,中国区域经济高速增长,区域经济失衡格局却不断加剧[1],京津冀地区形成了一条环绕京津的经济断崖地带[2],"环京津贫困带"成为社会关注的热点.京津冀地区的经济失衡日渐得到京津冀三方的共同关注,"京津冀区域一体化"与"首都经济圈"相继写入国家"十二五"规划纲要.然而,受制于自然条件与人文因素[3]的综合制约,京津冀区域经济协同发展坎坷不断,历史上形成的"环京津贫困带"面临的形势依然严峻.2014年初,京津冀协同发展上升为重大国家战略,有序推动京津冀区域经济失衡逐步优化.因此,实证探讨以"环京津贫困带"为表征的京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局具有重要的现实意义.

区域经济发展差距并不是近来才有的,繁荣的城镇与衰败的乡村自古并存,这是源自偶发优势区位的累积性与自我强化性.区域经济存在发展差距是一种广范围的个体选择的无意识过程,是大量的微观经济决策所诱发的.CP模型中的"黑洞效应"所导致的区域经济发展失衡却需宏观调控遏制.近年来对京津冀地区经济发展的失衡状况进行了诸多实证评估:杨龙岗阐述了以环京津贫困带为代表的中国城镇化进程的发展失衡[4];马国霞等探讨了1993-2007年京津冀经济增长空间极化的演化过程[5];袁媛等识别了河北136县经济--社会--自然综合体系的贫困类型[6];丁一文分析了环京津贫困带的发展现状与形成原因及解决对策[7];刘玉等测算了京津周边农民收入呈显著的核心--边缘结构[8].探讨京津冀地区经济发展失衡解决之道也多有涉及:吴群刚等指出了京津冀区域一体化的发展关键在于制定合适的产业优化与人口发展有机衔接的公共政策[9];陈国松指出了经济极化的核心发达地区实现快速增长却也对周边落后地区进行资源掠夺,而行政非均衡倾斜可破解经济发展失衡[10];刘学敏等提出了京津冀经济--社会--生态的区域协同持续发展的基本思路[11];张可云等提出了环京津贫困带的破解战略是物质补偿与政策扶持的双管齐下[12,13].总体而言,现有研究多以县域GDP等传统统计数据构建指标值得商榷,亟需引入新方法和新数据对京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局进行系统的量化评估.

综上所述,对1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局进行实证研究具有重要的现实意义与理论价值.为评估京津冀地区经济发展失衡状况,尝试性引入DMSP/OLS夜间灯光遥感数据,突破县级等行政区划以1 km × 1 km像元为实证单元,突破单纯GDP等统计数据而以夜间灯光和可比GDP构建的综合指标表征区域经济发展水平,再引入局部莫兰指数量化识别1990s以来京津冀区域经济发展失衡的格局类型,并以环京和环津的HH类型的外延边界作京津市域和河北省域的缓冲区,分析以量化比对京津冀区域经济发展失衡的空间格局和演化过程,精准识别京津冀地区经济发展失衡界线的"在哪里"问题,以期初步探讨公共政策决策等人文因素和生态资源补偿等自然条件的综合制约[14,15].

2 研究区概况与研究方法
2.1 研究区概况

京津冀地区位于环渤海地区心脏地带,包括京津两个直辖市与河北11个地级市,面积约21.6万 km2,人口约1.1亿(含外来人口1750万),2014年地区GDP约6.65万亿元.京津冀地区处于暖温带季风气候带,居于华北平原北域,西为太行山与燕山山脉所环绕,为北上南下,西行东出的战略要冲.京津冀地区不仅是中国北方经济规模最大,发展水平最高的城市化地区,也是新时期引领中国经济增长与转型升级,参与全球合作和竞争的战略平台,更在推进中国特色社会主义"五位一体"建设中具有无可替代的战略地位与相当突出的引领作用[16].1990s初期京津冀地区经济发展基本处于均衡水平,1990s末期区域经济发展失衡持续加剧,进入21世纪以来失衡格局并没有得到显著遏制(图1).1990s以来京津冀地区在经济发展,社会保障,生态保护,交通建设等领域取得了瞩目成就,却也面临着区域一体化程度较低,区域分工体系尚未形成,区域生态环境问题严峻等系列问题.一方面生态脆弱性十分突出,环境问题由城市演变为区域性难题;另一方面城镇体系发育失衡,次级中心城市发展滞后,县域经济发展分散,尤以区域经济发展失衡为甚.

图1 1990-2012年京津冀地区人均GDP Fig. 1 GDP per capita in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1990-2012

2.2 研究流程

为了研究1990s以来京津冀区域经济发展失衡的演化格局,选取意义更为丰富的单位开发强度的GDP表征区域经济发展(以DMSP/OLS夜间灯光表征区域开发强度并以可比GDP产值表征区域经济增长),再以Moran's I标示京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的显著类型,并将HH类型界定为京津冀地区经济失衡的空间界线,然后以此进行缓冲区分析以量化京津冀地区经济失衡的演化过程.

中国现有发展规划多是5年期,选择1995年,2000年,2005年,2010年作为时间节点便于人文因素分析.现有数据获取始于1992年,终于2012年,以1992年,1995年,2000年,2005年,2010年与2012年为评估时间节点.

2.2.1 区域开发强度 由于时效性,客观性及可获性等特有优势,遥感数据成为重要数据源,引入DMSP/OLS夜间灯光表征区域开发强度.由于夜间灯光是区域人为活动的具象化表征,其与社会经济等人类活动存在显著的相关关系,故夜间灯光可有效衡量区域经济社会发展(生产总值,城市规模,人口分布,植被覆盖,能源消费,城市化等[17-25]),也可量化区域开发的广度与强度.6个评估时间节点所对应的为F101992,F121995,F152000,F162005,F182010,F182012遥感数据.由于客观条件(灯光饱和效应与卫星观测误差等)对原始数据存在一定的"灰箱式"干扰,需依次修正弱化灯光饱和效应与卫星观测误差.

由于夜间灯光F162006radiance非饱和数据并不存在灯光饱和效应,这可为弱化灯光饱和效应提供相对精确的校正基准.灯光饱和效应被质化论证为指数式模型,基于同一年份同一卫星的非饱和数据F162006radiance(y)与饱和数据F162006(x),夜间灯光饱和效应的弱化模型即公式y=f1(x)=4.157e0.066x所示.卫星观测误差源于不同卫星硬件设备的客观差异,依次以同一年份不同卫星的F101994~F121994,F121997~F141997,F142000~F152000,F152005~F162005,构建F10&F12,F12&F14,F14&F15与F15&F16卫星之间的卫星观测误差的一般线性校正模型f2(x)(表1).卫星观测误差的标准化校正模型f3(x)是依次将卫星F10,F12,F14,F15标准化为F16卫星(表2).由于卫星F18与F16缺少同一年份的数据交集,F16→F18校正模型系数以其他卫星校正模型所对应系数的均值,并转化为F18→F16形式.

表1 卫星观测误差的校正模型f2(x) Tab. 1 Calibration models of satellite observation error f2(x)
表2 卫星观测误差的标准化校正模型f3(x) Tab. 2 Standardized calibration models of satellite observation error f3(x)

综合灯光饱和效应的弱化模型与卫星观测误差的标准校正模型构建京津冀地区的夜间灯光综合修正模型,构建形式如公式 y = f x = f 3 f 1 ( x ) 所示.夜间灯光综合修正模型采取先弱化灯光饱和效应后校正卫星观测误差,这可更为精确地还原1992-2012年京津冀地区夜间灯光所表征的区域开发强度的真实状况,为实证研究提供精确的数据基础.

2.2.2 区域经济发展 "环京津贫困带"不断显化源自京津冀区域经济发展格局的过度失衡.区域经济发展是经济增长与社会进步及生态改善等经济--社会--生态所表征的综合概念,社会进步与生态改善均以经济增长为物质基础,没有经济增长就没有坚实的社会进步与生态改善.虽然量化经济发展的评估指标或评估体系往往因人因地存在显著差异,地区GDP却是区域经济发展评估最为基础,最为核心的,其他各级各类的指标或体系多是区域GDP的直接表征或间接量化.同时,为了避免以单一区域GDP量化区域经济发展容易陷入"唯GDP论",尝试性引入夜间灯光表征的区域开发强度,并以单位开发强度的可比GDP表征区域经济发展,如公式(1)所示.

y = x i × GD P j i = 1 n x i y j = x i × ( GD P j / Σn x i ) (1)

式中:y为单位开发强度的区域GDP;xij城市第i评估象元的夜间灯光DN值;nj城市的象元总数;GDPjj城市的可比GDP状况.作为一个价值量评估指标,区域GDP决定于价格变化与物量变化.为了消除价格变化对GDP统计干扰,选取1952年为基期的可比GDP,以1952-2012年城市GDP指数间接算得区域可比GDP状况.

总体流程:首先以市县为单位统计京津冀地区各个市县的夜间灯光总和,而后各个市县的区域GDP除以其夜间灯光总和,进而得到每个市县的每个灯光所代表的区域GDP值,最后将其逐个乘以每个1 km × 1 km像元的灯光强度值,得到区域经济发展指标,即单位开发强度的区域可比GDP.单位开发强度的区域GDP可有效规避"增长了却未发展",科学表征区域经济发展的实质意义.

现有文献确实多以人均GDP作为衡量区域经济发展水平的衡量指标,不过人口分布状况图却无法得到像元尺度,现有最为详细的数据就是街道与乡村尺度的人口普查数据,也没有突破行政区划限制更没有连续年份的.夜间灯光遥感数据是1 km × 1 km像元尺度的连续年份的年度数据,可获取性好.更为重要的是,经过前人系统研究,夜间灯光可以很好地表征人口规模与人口布局,其与人口分布格局存在显著的高度正相关关系;同时,直接代表区域开发强度的夜间灯光也可以高效衡量地区生产总值,城市发展规模,植被覆盖状况与能源资源消费及城镇化水平,其与区域经济社会发展水平总体上也存在显著的正相关关系.故此,以单位开发强度的GDP衡量区域经济发展水平不仅可以有效替代人均GDP指标,更可以包含更多的更丰富的区域经济社会发展状况.

2.2.3 时空演化格局 对1992-2012年京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局进行量化识别,先以1 km × 1 km为评估单元,以Local Moran's I空间聚类将京津冀区域经济失衡格局分为非显著类型与显著类型(即HH富化扩散,HL富化极化,LH贫化塌陷,LL贫化制约)[26].而后,分别提取环京和环津的HH富化扩散类型,将其外延识别为京津冀地区经济发展的失衡界线.经济发展格局类型的HH类型代表区域经济发展水平的高值集聚区,将京津冀地区经济发展失衡界线界定为经济发展高值地区向低值地区转变的突变地带,而HH类型即其数值是显著高于周边邻近地区的,其界线意义与本研究定义的经济发展失衡界线存在较高类似性,可以替代之.最后,依次对北京与天津的HH内部,HH外部但属京津市内,河北省域进行间隔2 km的Buffer分析,量化1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的演化过程.

京津冀地区经济发展的Local Moran's I表示邻近区域经济发展在局部上呈相似或相异.基于L&Z象限体系,若L>0且Z>0即HH富化扩散,表明评估区域及临近地域的经济发展都是高值;若L>0且Z<0即LL贫化制约,表明评估区域及临近地域的经济发展都是低值;若L<0且Z>0即HL富化极化,表明评估区域的经济发展为高值而临近地域为低值;若L<0且Z<0即LH贫化塌陷,表明评估区域的经济发展为低值而临近地域为高值.

3 结果分析
3.1 经济发展失衡格局

作为1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的显化代表,"环京津贫困带",泛指环绕京津周边的集中连片的河北省贫困区域,成为东部沿海经济发展的严重失衡地区,尤甚于西部"三西"地区.河北国家级贫困县遍布京津外围形成"环京津贫困带"的外围区域,张家口--承德一带尤甚(图2).

图2 2014年河北省国家级贫困县 Fig. 2 The state poverty counties' location in Hebei in 2014

识别1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局,局部莫兰指数的非显著类型表明区域经济发展是可控意义的均衡,经济失衡虽在一定程度上存在,但相较于京津冀经济发展的整体失衡格局却并不显著.HH富化扩散格局,受惠于外溢效应的评估区域及其临近地域的经济发展都相对较高,远高于同时期的整体水平,是经济发展的"财富高原".LL贫化制约格局,评估区域及其临近地域的经济发展受制于制约效应均相对较低,是经济发展的"财富洼地".HL富化极化格局与LH贫化塌陷格局虽形式不同却实质相似,是"财富高原"向"财富洼地"的过渡地带,理解为经济发展的"财富丘陵",是经济发展的外溢效应强化初期或制约效应弱化开端.HL富化极化与LH贫化塌陷是HH富化扩散的早期外围扩张形式,未来理想的演化形式就是逐渐趋于HH富化扩散,也是LL贫化制约未来可期的演化阶段.

1992-2012年6个评估时间节点的京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局,如表3与图3所示.1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局均主要是非显著类型,经济失衡更多的是城市之间与城乡之间的局部失衡.1992年京津冀地区经济发展的显著类型只有HH富化扩散,这表明区域经济发展呈整体弱化,结构简化的失衡格局."环京津贫困带"是京津市区"财富高原"等城区经济与邻近周边的市郊经济之间的严重失衡,这种城乡之间的经济失衡是产生于区域经济发展整体有限背景下市区享受人为行政区划所带来的有限资源严重倾斜."环京津贫困带"早已存在,或是一种计划经济时代的衍生产物,而京津冀区域经济发展失衡是历史上长期演化的结果,非短期突变.

图3 1992-2012年京津冀地区经济发展失衡的时空演化格局 Fig. 3 Imbalanced pattern of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1990-2012

表3 1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展格局类型的面积及其比重 Tab. 3 Areas and their percentage of spatial pattern types of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

1995年格局类型有HH富化扩散与LL贫化制约及LH贫化塌陷.HH富化扩散持续扩展而LL贫化制约不断显化,受惠于人为资源倾斜的市区经济发展不断加快,受困于区位制约与政策限制的市郊经济却面临困境,京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局整体加剧.京津市区的邻近周边也散布零星LH贫化塌陷,是市区与郊区及乡村的城乡交错带.受惠于邻近市区经济外溢的城乡过渡地带多呈外延式扩张,而飞地式与点轴式的经济扩张相对较少.京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局呈局部优化而整体恶化,"环京津贫困带"不断显化.行政区划等人为因素所带来的资源倾斜可能是导致京津冀地区市郊之间及城乡之间的经济失衡重要诱因.

2000年与2005年格局类型有HH富化扩散与LL贫化制约及LH贫化塌陷与HL富化极化.HH富化扩散并无显著扩张而LH贫化塌陷与HL富化极化仅散布市区周边,京津市区经济发展的外溢效应增长较快却基数有限,现仅区位优势显著的京津市区周边享受经济外溢.LL贫化制约在张承一带迅速扩张,自然区位劣势与人为政策制约张承享受京津经济的发展外溢,而碳交易等区际调控缺失进一步导致"环京津贫困带"持续加剧,京津冀区域经济发展失衡整体上仍难以得到有效遏制.

2010年经济发展格局类型,与2005年相同.彼此矛盾的HH富化扩散与LL贫化制约同时扩张,京津冀区域经济发展失衡仍是局部改善却总体严峻,贫的越贫,富的越富.经济洼地从张承一带逐渐蔓延至唐山--秦皇岛西北,自然环境与行政制约等人为因素始终困扰京津周边经济,而经济外溢虽局部有效但整体上仍难以扭转京津冀地区的经济失衡趋势.

2012年经济发展格局类型,也与2010年相同.HH富化扩散继续扩张,京津市区经济外溢不断增强,京津市区与邻近周边局部上显著优化.LL贫化制约外扩得到一定阻滞,"环京津贫困带"整体趋势得到一定弱化.京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局得到一定程度的优化均衡,不过尚难以判定这种格局改善是1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展的偶然过程还是必然结果,是暂时性波动还是长期性趋势.

3.2 经济发展失衡界线

区域经济发展失衡界线并非是完全孤立于邻近区域绝对静止的经济失衡,是区域经济与邻近周边的一种相对动态的过渡地带.为了更好地探讨1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的演化过程及其失衡界线,尝试性地将经济发展失衡界线(过渡地带)抽象为一种空间界线,即京津HH富化扩散类型的外界.1990s以来京津冀地区环京与环津的经济发展失衡界线,如图4所示.

图4 1992-2012年京津冀地区经济发展的贫富分化界线 Fig. 4 Boundaries of wealth gaps in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1992-2012

环京的经济发展失衡界线整体向东外延式扩张,甚至局部蔓延至河北区域,而受制于山区地貌等自然环境与政策定位等人为因素的西部地区并没有显著外扩[27].环津的经济发展失衡界线则分别向南北两侧持续扩张,区位优势显著的津西地区并无显著外扩,这种相对滞后可能源自行政区划所带来的资源倾斜制约.1990s年以来京津冀地区环京和环津的经济发展失衡界线呈整体性蔓延扩张,交通路网所带来的点轴扩张对京津冀区域经济的助推作用相当有限.而2005年以来逐见规模小,数量多的局部性飞地扩张,这可能得益于方兴未艾的大规模的造城运动与新区建设,京津郊区及其市区的经济失衡得到一定的局部改善,不过这个推断尚需进一步的科学论证.

3.3 经济发展失衡格局演化

城乡隔离与行政制约所带来的资源倾斜是京津冀区域经济发展失衡不断加剧的重要诱因,致使"环京津贫困带"不断显化[28].为进一步探讨人文因素对经济失衡格局演化的制约效应,分别以环京与环津的经济发展失衡界线做间宽2 km的buffer分析,量化京津市域(市区与郊区)与河北省域的经济失衡格局演化(图5).

图5 1992-2012年京津冀地区经济发展失衡的缓冲区分析格局 Fig. 5 Buffer analysis of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1992-2012

1990s年以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局存在着两大显著的发展断崖,即京津的市区和郊区,京津市域和河北地区,而并非传统认识上的"环京津贫困带"一个经济失衡断层,这意味着城乡二元对京津冀地区经济失衡的隔离效应远甚于行政区划所带来的制约效应.邻近京津的贫困县域只是"环京津贫困带"的外围表征,京津市郊之间的经济失衡远甚于京津市域和河北省域之间.尤为严峻的是,1990s以来京津市区与郊区之间的经济失衡并没有得到有效遏制与广泛关注.

1990s以来京津冀地区HH富化扩散地带的经济发展远高于京津外围周边,这个经济断崖并没有随着高速发展的区域经济而逐渐缩小.经济失衡格局演化蔓延扩至周边 100 km,行政制约诱发的"灯下黑"效应甚至局部外延至200 km左右,1990s以来京津冀地区经济失衡格局演化总体上相对稳定.

1990s以来京津冀地区京津市域与河北省域的经济失衡始终显著,距离京津HH富化扩散的河北地区经济发展远低于相似距离的京津地区."环京津贫困带"并非完全受制于自然环境的客观限制,更多的是城乡隔离与行政制约所带来的资源倾斜.整体而言,1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局逐渐严峻,"环京津贫困带"不断显化,局部上是受制于京津冀三地各自为政所带来的行政制约,整体上却是城乡二元结构所诱发的城乡隔离.破解"环京津贫困带",实现京津冀区域协同发展,首要在于消除城乡隔离并辅以弱化行政制约.

4 结论与讨论

区域经济发展失衡实质上是经济发展相对差异异常增大的空间表现.1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局显著,在京津市域(市区与郊区)与河北地区之间形成"环京津贫困带".京津两市对河北地区的极化效应远大于外溢效应,"孤岛效应"不断加剧京津冀地区的经济失衡.总之,彼此孤立的京津冀经济"空吸现象"直接导致历史遗留下的"环京津贫困带"不断显化,这也直接或间接诱发一系列日渐严重的经济--社会--生态的综合制约.

(1)1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局识别为非显著类型与显著类型(HH富化扩散,HL富化极化,LH贫化塌陷,LL贫化制约).彼此对立的HH富化扩散与LL贫化制约(集中于张家口--承德一带)同步扩张表明京津冀地区经济失衡不断加剧.HL富化极化与LH贫化塌陷都散布于市区周边表明京津两市的市区经济的外溢效应虽整体强度有限却不断加强.

(2)1990s年以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡界线并无显著波动,多是缓慢的蔓延扩张,而2005年之后京津市区周边出现局部的飞地扩张.北京经济发展多向区位优势显著的东部扩展,而受制于自然条件与政策定位的京西却相当缓慢.天津经济发展分别向南北两侧同时扩展,区位较好的津西发展滞后或是受制于三地各自为政的行政制约.

(3)1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局存在两大发展断崖,即京津市区和郊区之间,京津市域和河北省域之间,而并非传统认识上的"环京津贫困带"一个断层.京津市区和郊区之间的经济失衡远甚于京津和河北之间,城乡隔离效应整体上远大于行政制约效应."环京津贫困带"所诱发的制约效应周边绵延100 km,甚至200 km.受制于自然条件的京津西北地区经济发展虽相对滞后,1990s以来京津冀区域经济发展失衡却多是城乡隔离效应与行政制约效应.弱化京津冀地区经济发展的失衡格局,破解"环京津贫困带",重点在于消除城乡隔离效应并辅以弱化各自为政的行政制约,关键在于以区域多功能性理念建立公共政策决策机制并健全社会生态补偿机制.

引入夜间灯光表征区域经济发展水平,并以1 km像元的评价单元对区域经济发展失衡做尝试性的实证探索,这或许可发掘更多被行政区划所限制或忽略的实证细节.虽然识别出京津冀经济发展整体上自1990s以来即长期存在两大断崖及其约100 km的制约距离,不过其制约因素尚缺少理论机制分析.未来研究方向将进一步丰富系统的实证研究,并结合理论模型构建从理论机制层面进行探讨研究,探索在京津冀区域协同发展背景下的环京津贫困带的突围之道.

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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自1978年起至今,伴随着经 济体制的改革,中国经济保持连续30余年的高速增长,从根本上改变了中国经济社会面貌。然而,随着社会经济改革和发展的不断深入,我们发现在中国经济增长 的同时,中国社会的发展似乎落在了后面,主要表现在:(1)社会结构与经济结构的不协调;(2)社会体制难以适应经济发展的需要;(3)民生问题与经济发 展之间的脱节。这种非均衡的状态,不仅持续时间长,而且影响范围广,制约着中国经济持续高速发展,并造成大量严重的社会问题。例如,贫富差距不断拉大,环 境污染问题日趋严重,通货持续高涨等。这促使中国经济学者开始思考中国如何从传统的经济体制中走出来,建立起现代化的市场经济体制,从而解决中国经济增长 放缓与社会公平等问题。 从问题本身看问题往往容易游走在问题的表面或陷入其中,这就需要我们看清影响问题发展的各种因素之间的相互作用,并从其内在机制上思考中国经济发展中出现 的各种问题。冈纳·缪尔达尔是1974年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者,其对经济、社会和制度现象的内在依赖性进行的精辟分析,对理解发展中国家经济的现实问题具 有极高的指导意义。本文主要借鉴缪尔达尔以“循环累积因果论”为核心的经济思想,希望在探究中国几个重要社会经济问题上提供一个新的视角,以帮助我们更好 地去理解中国非均衡经济。 本文的第一部分为绪论。首先阐述本文研究问题和研究意义;然后从中国经济改革现状入手,提出中国的经济发展是处于非均衡状态,并以缪尔达尔的经济理论作为 指导思想来深入分析几个重要的经济发展问题;最后根据研究问题提出本文的研究框架和研究方法,并指出本文的创新之处。 第二部分是文献综述与理论介绍。首先对非均衡理论的发展进行简要的介绍,阐述各个理论发展阶段的经济学家的主要观点和贡献;然后是介绍国内经济学者在中国 非均衡经济的主要研究成果,并对他们的经济理论和重要结论作一个简要的综述;最后是列举国内学者在应用缪尔达尔经济思想来研究中国经济问题方面的成果,并 指出缪尔达尔经济思想对中国经济发展所具有的指导意义。 接下来,介绍缪尔达尔在经济学方面的主要贡献;然后介绍缪尔达尔“循环累积因果论”的由来和含义;最后介绍缪尔达尔提出的“回波效应”和“扩散效应”等理 论。 第三部分研究30多年来中国经济在改革开放发展过程中逐步形成的东西部地区非均衡发展。在分析东西部地区经济现状的基础上,用“回波效应”和“贫困循环理 论”分别来分析东西部地区发展的内在因果循环逻辑,并得出对比性结论。 第四部分研究中国经济长期的粗放式和劳动密集型发展方式所造成的经济结构的非均衡。本章首先分析产业升级和企业自主创新,发现阻碍其发展的原因,并提出相 关建议;然后分析产业集聚的不均衡发展,并提出产业转移是构建合理的经济结构的一个有效途径。 第五部分研究中国企业发展过程中所形成的所有制的非均衡。本章首先简述国有企业改革历程;然后以铁本案为例,指出民营经济在国民经济中的发展的困难;最后 指出中国经济治理中的经典型困局。 第六部分阐述中国城镇化快速发展过程中出现的若干社会不公平现象,包括“环京津贫困带”问题和外来农民工的民生问题;最后,本部分探讨中国建设和谐社会中 发展与公平的关系。 第七部分是基本结论和政策建议,并提出不足之处与未来展望。
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[5] 马国霞, 田玉军, 石勇. 京津冀都市圈经济增长的空间极化及其模拟研究. 经济地理, 2010, 30(2): 177-182.
在利用空间极化指标对京津冀都市圈1993-2007年的空间极 化变化趋势进行测算的基础上,采用GIS空间分析技术的二维和三维空间表达形式,对近15年来京滓冀都市圈经济极化增长进行空间模拟,从时间和空间两个维 度分析京津冀都巿圈空间极化过程.得出的主要结论:①京滓冀都市圈经济增长极化随时间呈上升趋势.②京津冀都市圈经济增长自经济中心向外围的变化趋势并不 完全遵循距离衰减规律,离经济增长中心80km处是京津冀都市圈经济增长的低谷点.③从京津冀都市罔立体趋势面分析,北京和天津是京津冀都市圈的两大极 核,且空间极化趋势面随时间呈扩大趋势.
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[Ma Guoxia, Tian Yujun, Shi Yong.Research on spatial polarization and simulation of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(2): 177-182.]
[6] 袁媛, 王仰麟, 马晶, . 河北省县域贫困度多维评估. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(1): 124-133.
在京津冀加快区域经济一体化的背景下,河北省出现环绕京津地区的贫困带引起了学界与公众的普遍关注。目前国内贫困县的设定往往以经济指标为唯一度量标准,本文在经济维度基础上增加社会维度(代表人类贫困)和自然维度(代表自然贫困)两方面评价指标,构建县域贫困度多维评价指标体系,对河北省136 个县的贫困状况分别进行经济单维度与经济—社会—自然三维评估,并基于SOFM网络将全省县域贫困度划分为五级,与河北省现有各类贫困县分布进行对比。结果表明,基于经济单维度与经济—社会—自然多维度评估的聚类分析得到的高贫困度县域均与现有贫困县有很好的对应,与河北省贫困县分布现状基本吻合;由于经济—社会—自然的多维度贫困度评估综合考虑了贫困现状及其潜在可能性,评估更加全面和深入。基于自然维度的潜在贫困度对多维贫困度的影响分析表明:环京津地区的贫困现状比较严重、且潜在贫困程度高,应积极依托京津,承接产业转移。而在冀中南地区,尽管贫困现状较为严重,但潜在贫困程度较低,因其较易脱贫而容易被忽视;同时,还存在大量非贫困县转化为贫困县的可能性;应进一步加强对该地区贫困问题的关注,分类扶贫、防治结合、区域联动,促进京津冀区域一体化、社会财富同步增长。
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.014      [本文引用:1]
[Yuan Yuan, Wang Yanglin, Ma Jing, et al.Multidimensional evaluation of county poverty degree in Hebei province. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(1): 124-133.]
[7] 丁一文. 环京津生态抑制型贫困带的现状,成因及对策建议. 生态经济, 2013, (9): 87-91.
环京津生态抑制型贫困带自然环境恶劣、生态脆弱、区域内贫困人口集中。但这些地区是京津地区重要的水源地和资源环境保障基地,在京津都市区的自然生态系统中具有重要屏障作用和战略地位,对区域内社会经济持续发展有重要影响。文章详细分析了环京津贫困带的现状和形成原因,并从建立生态经济发展特区、生态补偿机制构建、加强首都经济图产业对接与合作、创新生态旅游扶贫等方面提出具体对策建议,以期改善环京津贫困带的贫困现状。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-4407.2013.09.018      [本文引用:1]
[Ding Yiwen.The present situation, forming reason and countermeasures of the ecological inhibitory poverty belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Ecological Economy, 2013, (9): 87-91.]
[8] 刘玉, 刘彦随, 郭丽英. 环渤海地区农村居民纯收入空间分异研究. 经济地理, 2010, 30(6): 992-997.
文章应用统计分析法和空间分析法,探析环渤海地区农村居民纯收入的地域差异及其变化趋势。结果表明:2007年环渤海地区各县农村居民纯收入水平差距悬殊,欠发达区是其主要地域类型;欠发达区和贫困区在京津周边地区呈集聚分布,核心—边缘效应明显;1980—2007年环渤海地区各县农村居民纯收入分布格局变化不大,但绝对差异增大,相对差异波动性缩小;农村居民纯收入整体结构由金字塔型转为中间集中型,人均纯收入空间自相关显著,其趋同性增强;基于各县1996年农村居民收入水平和1996—2007年农村居民纯收入增长差异,将环渤海地区划分为6种增长类型,并提出缩小城乡差距、促进农民增收的相应策略。
[本文引用:1]
[Liu Yu, Liu Yansui, Guo Liying.Spatial difference analysis of the rural residents' net-income along the Bohai Rim in China. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(6): 992-997.]
[9] 吴群刚, 杨开忠. 关于京津冀区域一体化发展的思考. 城市问题, 2010, (1): 11-16.
从区域一体化的角度,分析了京津冀区域发展的现状,指出京津冀区域发展的核心问题在于制定恰 当的公共政策,实现产业与人口发展的有机衔接。一方面,深化区域产业结构调整,切实提高产业创新和升级能力 另一方面,抓好区域产业结构优化升级与人才和劳动力市场衔接,实现产业与人口发展的无缝对接。从处理好人口、经济和生态关系的角度,提出要改变人口向首都 过度聚集现象,就必须完善京津冀区域合作机制,提高周边城市的人口吸纳能力。最后,围绕提升区域产业创新与升级能力、促进人口迁移与区域协同发展、有效疏 导首都人口压力等问题讨论了相应的公共政策。
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[Wu Qungang, Yang Kaizhong.Thinking about the regional integration development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Urban Problems, 2010, (1): 11-16.]
[10] 陈国松. 发达地区掠夺式增长与地区差距: 以环首都贫困带为例. 理论与改革, 2012, (5): 148-151.
发达地区在实现自身快速发展的 同时,也对周边欠发达区域形成了资源掠夺,通过极化效应,发达地区与欠发达地区的差距越来越大,而发达地区却不愿将既得利益让渡于落后地区,相反还对落后 地区发生了掠夺式增长行为。在这种机制下,发达地区不仅没有促进落后地区的发展,反而抑制了落后地区的发展进程。而打破这种无效率状态的根本途径在于采用 行政非均衡手段,通过行政干预对落后地区投资大推进,才能缩短落后地区达到发达地区发展水平所耗费的时限。
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[Chen Guosong.Developed regions predatory growth and regional disparities in the poverty belt around Beijing. Theory and Reform, 2012, (5): 148-151.]
[11] 刘学敏, 王玉海, 敖华. "首都区"经济,社会,生态统筹协调发展研究. 经济纵横, 2008, (4): 40-42.
文章从京津地区实现可持续发展面临的问题出发,提出应从一个全新视角着力构建以京津为核心、以河北为自然延伸、以晋陕蒙为广阔腹地的“首都区”,并提出“首都区”经济、社会、生态统筹协调发展的基本思路。
[本文引用:1]
[Liu Xuemin, Wang Yuhai, Ao Hua.The economic, social and ecological coordination development research in capital area. Economic Review, 2008, (4): 40-42.]
[12] 张可云, 郑拴虎, 赵秋喜. 关于带动北京周边贫困地区发展问题研究. 北京社会科学, 2006, (3): 50-55.
在北京周边地区存在着一条贫困发生率高、经济结构水平低、发展效率低的环京贫困带.在分析该贫困地区的发展现状、形成原因及其对北京经济社会发展影响的基础上,本文提出了带动这一地区发展的基本思想、指导原则和政策建议,并进一步探讨了"十一五"期间北京在这一方面的具体措施.
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[Zhang Keyun, Zheng Shuanhu, Zhao Qiuxi.Research on development of the poverty areas neighboring Beijing. Social Science of Beijing, 2006, (3): 50-55.]
[13] 赵玉. 对环京津贫困带的扶持补偿机制研究. 经济问题探索, 2008, (3): 179-182.
环京津贫困带问题受到国际关注,是中央政府和京津冀三省市共同面临的问题.不论是按照市场经济规则,还是践行党的科学发展观,都应对环京津贫困带予以扶持和补偿.为此,本文针对该区域的历史陈欠和其今后的持续发展,从物质补偿与政策扶持两方面进行可行性对策研究.
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[Zhao Yu.The supportive compensation mechanism for the poverty belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2008, (3): 179-182.]
[14] 刘彦随, 刘玉, 陈玉福. 中国地域多功能性评价及其决策机制. 地理学报, 2011, 66(10): 1379-1389.
地域功能具有明显的空间异质性和时间变异性。随着工业化、城镇化快速发展,地域空间的分异性与人地系统的多样性不断增强,地域功能及其发展定位呈现多元化趋势。本文通过构建地域多功能性评价指标体系与指数分析模型,开展了中国县域尺度经济发展、粮食生产、社会稳定、生态保育功能及其综合功能的分级评判研究。结果表明:经济发展功能一级区主要分布在珠江三角洲、长江三角洲、京津冀都市圈等东部沿海发达地区和中西部大城市周边地区;粮食生产功能一级区主要分布在东北平原、黄淮海平原、四川盆地、湖北中部及湖南东部等平原集中分布区;社会保障功能则大致由沿海到内地、由北到南逐渐减弱; 生态保育功能一级区集中分布在东北地区和秦岭&mdash;淮河一线以南地区;将各单项功能进行县域尺度耦合,评价了各县域的综合功能强度,划分出综合功能强势区和弱势区,探讨了强化县域主导功能与优化生产要素配置的财政转移支付、生态补偿、政绩考核等创新机制和政策,为统筹区域发展和提升县域竞争力提供决策依据。
[本文引用:1]
[Liu Yansui, Liu Yu, Chen Yufu.Territorial multi-functionality evaluation and decision-making mechanism at county scale in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(10): 1379-1389.]
[15] 张伟, 张宏业, 张义丰. 基于"地理要素禀赋当量"的社会生态补偿标准测算. 地理学报, 2010, 65(10): 1253-1265.
<p>生态补偿是当前国内外学者广泛关注的热点和难点问题,而科学制定区域生态补偿的空间分配标准又是生态补偿研究中的关键环节。当前对区域空间补偿标准的计算思路大致可分为两种:生态建设成本核算法和生态系统服务功能价值核算法。本文剖析了社会生态补偿与区域社会经济发展的关系,从社会公平的角度出发,利用2007 年全国各省市的数据,建立计量经济模型,分析了各省地理要素禀赋差异对区域社会经济发展的影响。在此基础上,提出&ldquo;地理要素禀赋当量&rdquo;的概念,分析了该指标在区域生态补偿政策和单项生态补偿政策制定中的应用前景。研究结论如下:① 实施社会生态补偿,是各区域获得平等的生存权、环境权和发展权的有力保障,也是促进区域间协调、平衡和可持续发展的必要保证。② 各地地理要素禀赋的差异是引起区域社会经济发展差异的重要因素,也是制定社会生态补偿标准的重要依据;③ 利用&ldquo;地理要素禀赋当量&rdquo;,可以科学确定区域间社会生态补偿的空间分配标准,有效地避免以往生态补偿政策制定中的&ldquo;一刀切&rdquo;现象。</p>
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[Zhang Wei, Zhang Hongye, Zhang Yifeng.The determination of social ecological compensation standard based on "equivalent value of geographical factor endowment". Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10): 1253-1265.]
[16] 李国平. 京津冀区域发展报告(2014). 北京: 科学出版社, 2014.
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[Li Guoping.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Development Report(2014). Beijing: Science Press, 2014.]
[17] Dengsheng Lu, Hanqin Tian, Guomo Zhou, et al.Regional mapping of human settlements in southeastern China with multisensor remotely sensed data. Remote Sens. Environ., 2008, 112(9): 3668-3679.
Mapping human settlements from remotely sensed data at regional and global scales has attracted increasingly attention but remains a challenge. The thresholding technique is a common approach for settlement mapping based on the DMSP-OLS data. However, this approach often omits the areas with small proportional settlements such as towns and villages and overestimates urban extents, resulting in information loss of spatial patterns. This paper explored an integrated approach based on a combined use of multiple remotely sensed data to map settlements in southeastern China. Human settlements for selected sites were mapped from Landsat ETM+ images with a hybrid approach and they were used as reference data. The DMSP-OLS and Terra MODIS NDVI data were combined to develop a settlement index image. This index image was used to map a pixel-based settlement image with expert rules. A regression model was established to estimate fractional settlements at the regional scale, which the DMSP-OLS and MODIS NDVI data were used as independent variables and the settlement data derived from ETM+ images were used as a dependent variable. This research indicated that a combination of DMSP-OLS and NDVI variables provided a better estimation performance than single DMSP-OLS or NDVI variable, and the integrated approach for settlement mapping at the regional scale was promising. Compared to the results from the traditional thresholding technique, the estimated fractional settlement image in this paper greatly improved the spatial patterns of settlement distribution and accuracy of settlement areas. This paper provided a rapid and accurate approach to estimate fractional settlements from coarse spatial resolution images at the regional scale by combining a limited number of medium spatial resolution images. This research is especially valuable for timely updating settlement databases at regional and global scales with limited time, labor, and cost.
DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2008.05.009      [本文引用:1]
[18] He Chunyang, Ma Qun, Li Tong, et al.Spatiotemporal dynamics of electric power consumption in Chinese Mainland from 1995 to 2008 modeled using DMSP/OLS stable nighttime lights data. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(1): 125-136.
Abstract<br/><p class="a-plus-plus">Electric power consumption (EPC) is one of the basic indices for evaluating electric power use. Obtaining timely and accurate data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC is crucial for understanding and practical deployment of electric power resources. In this study, an EPC model was developed using stable nighttime lights time-series data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS). The model was used to reconstruct the spatial patterns of EPC in Chinese Mainland at the county level from 1995 to 2008. In addition, the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC were analyzed, and the following conclusions were drawn. (1) The EPC model reliably represented the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC in Chinese Mainland with approximately 70% accuracy. (2) The EPC in most regions of Chinese Mainland was at low to moderate levels, with marked temporal and spatial variations; of high-level EPC, 58.26% was concentrated in eastern China. Six urban agglomerations (Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula, middle-south of Liaoning Province, and Sichuan Basin) accounted for 10.69% of the total area of Chinese Mainland but consumed 39.23% of the electricity. (3) The EPC of most regions in Chinese Mainland increased from 1995 to 2008, and 64% of the mainland area showed a significant increase in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC were found in 61.62% of eastern China and 80.65% of central China from 1995 to 2008, whereas 75.69% of western China showed no significant increase in EPC. Meanwhile, 77.27%, 89.35%, and 66.72% of the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, and Shandong Peninsula, respectively, showed high-speed increases in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC occurred in 71.12% and 72.13% of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region and middle-south of Liaoning Province, respectively, while no significant increase occurred in 56.34% of the Sichuan Basin.</p><br/>
DOI:10.1007/s11442-012-0916-3      [本文引用:0]
[19] Qingling Zhang, Seto K.C. Mapping urbanization dynamics at regional and global scales using multi-temporal DMSP/OLS nighttime light data. Remote Sens Environ, 2011, 115(9): 2320-2329.
Urban areas concentrate people, economic activity, and the built environment. As such, urbanization is simultaneously a demographic, economic, and land-use change phenomenon. Historically, the remote sensing community has used optical remote sensing data to map urban areas and the expansion of urban land-cover for individual cities, with little research focused on regional and global scale patterns of urban change. However, recent research indicates that urbanization at regional scales is growing in importance for economics, policy, land use planning, and conservation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand and monitor urbanization dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, we illustrate the use of multi-temporal nighttime light (NTL) data from the U.S Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellites Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) to monitor urban change at regional and global scales. We use independently derived data on population, land use and land cover to test the ability of multi-temporal NTL data to measure regional and global urban growth over time. We apply an iterative unsupervised classification method on multi-temporal NTL data from 1992 to 2008 to map urbanization dynamics in India, China, Japan, and the United States. For two-year intervals between 1992 and 2000, India consistently experienced higher rates of urban growth than China, and both countries exceeded the urban growth rates of the United States and Japan. This is not surprising given that the populations of India and China were growing faster than those of the U.S. and Japan during those periods. For two-year intervals between 2000 and 2008, China experienced higher rates of urban growth than India. Results show that the multi-temporal NTL provides a regional and potentially global measure of the spatial and temporal changes in urbanization dynamics for countries at certain levels of GDP and population-driven growth.
DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2011.04.032      [本文引用:0]
[20] Roychowdhury Koel, Jones Simon D, Arrowsmith Colin, et al.A comparison of high and low gain DMSP/OLS satellite images for the study of socio-economic metrics. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2011, 4(1): 35-42.
The Operational Linescan System (OLS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) group of satellites, unlike other passive remote sensing sensors, is capable of recording the emissions from artificial lights on the earth surface. Along with detecting light from forest fires, shipping fleets and gas flares, the OLS sensor also records the light emitted from cities at night. This paper reports on a study that uses the DMSP Operational Linescan (DMSP-OLS) images with fixed gain settings of 20 dB and 50 dB to model selected metrics used in the Indian census for the state of Maharashtra. The study firstly looks into the utility of non-composited single fixed gain radiance calibrated DMSP-OLS products for proposing a method which might help to build a surrogate method for Indian census. Several parameters are considered in this analysis, with detailed focus on population density, total population and proportion of households with electricity access for 35 districts within the state of Maharashtra. Results show that spatial scale plays an important role in selection of the images and gains. Secondly, this study provides a relative assessment of gain setting for the DMSP-OLS images in an urban Indian context. Images with a gain of 50 dB prove suitable for larger areas while those with a gain of 20 dB give better results at a smaller spatial scale. Statistical analysis and residual maps of spatial distribution of total population and population density validate the result.
DOI:10.1109/JSTARS.2010.2053022      [本文引用:0]
[21] Small Christopher, Elvidge Christopher D, Balk Deborah, et al.Spatial scaling of stable night lights. Remote Sens Environ, 2011, 115(2): 269-280.
City size distributions, defined on the basis of population, are often described by power laws. Zipf's Law states that the exponent of the power law for rank-size distributions of cities is near 鈭1. Verification of power law scaling for city size distributions at continental and global scales is complicated by small sample sizes, inappropriate estimation techniques, inconsistent definitions of urban extent and variations in the accuracy and spatial resolution of census administrative units. We attempt to circumvent some of these complications by using a continuous spatial proxy for anthropogenic development and treat it as a spatial complement to population distribution. We quantify the linearity and exponent of the rank-size distribution of spatially contiguous patches of stable night light over a range of brightnesses corresponding to different intensities of development. Temporally stable night lights, as measured by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Line Scanner (DMSP-OLS), provide a unique proxy for anthropogenic development. Brightness and spatial extent of emitted light are correlated to population density (Sutton et al., 2001), built area density (Elvidge et al., 2007c) and economic activity ( and ) at global scales and within specific countries. Using a variable brightness threshold to derive spatial extent of developed land area eliminates the complication of administrative definitions of urban extent and makes it possible to test Zipf's Law in the spatial dimension for a wide range of anthropogenic development. Higher brightness thresholds generally correspond to more intense development while lower thresholds extend the lighted area to include smaller settlements and less intensively developed peri-urban and agricultural areas. Using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to estimate power law linearity and exponent of the resulting rank-size distributions across a range of upper tail cutoffs, we consistently find statistically significant exponents in the range 鈭0.95 to 鈭1.11 with an abrupt transition to very large, extensively connected, spatial networks of development near the low light detection limit of the sensor. This range of exponents and transition are observed at both continental and global scales. The results suggest that Zipf's Law also holds for spatial extent of anthropogenic development across a range of intensities at both continental and global scales. The implication is that the dynamics of urban growth and development may be represented as spatial phase transitions when the spatial extent and intensity of development are treated as continuous variables rather than discrete entities.
DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2010.08.021      [本文引用:0]
[22] Tao Yuan, Xinqi Zheng, Wei Zhou.Calculation methods of territorial development intensity using DMSP/OLS data. Proceedings 2011 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics, 2011: 6.
The nighttime lights collected by the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) have a number of favorable characteristics for depicting the spatial patterns of Constructed surfaces on large scale. This paper presents a quantitative analysis on the brightness of nighttime lights and territorial development intensity (TDI) from pixel-scale using the land use data of Shuozhou City as the reference data source. The nighttime lights were reprojected to 2-kilometer equal area grid in an Albers conical equal area projection. Linear regression defined a formula for estimating the TDI base on the brightness of nighttime lights. Furthermore, results also confirm that different types of construction land make different contribution to the brightness. This method is effective and convenient for constructed area analysis and monitoring.
DOI:10.1109/GeoInformatics.2011.5980751      [本文引用:0]
[23] Wang Wen, Cheng Hui, Zhang Li.Poverty assessment using DMSP/OLS night-time light satellite imagery at a provincial scale in China. Advances in Space Research, 2012, 49(8): 1253-1264.
All countries around the world and many international bodies, including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), have to eliminate rural poverty. Estimation of regional poverty level is a key issue for making strategies to eradicate poverty. Most of previous studies on regional poverty evaluations are based on statistics collected typically in administrative units. This paper has discussed the deficiencies of traditional studies, and attempted to research regional poverty evaluation issues using 3-year DMSP/OLS night-time light satellite imagery. In this study, we adopted 17 socio-economic indexes to establish an integrated poverty index (IPI) using principal component analysis (PCA), which was proven to provide a good descriptor of poverty levels in 31 regions at a provincial scale in China. We also explored the relationship between DMSP/OLS night-time average light index and the poverty index using regression analysis in SPSS and a good positive linear correlation was modelled, with Requal to 0.854. We then looked at provincial poverty problems in China based on this correlation. The research results indicated that the DMSP/OLS night-time light data can assist analysing provincial poverty evaluation issues.
DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2012.01.025      [本文引用:0]
[24] Zeng Chuiqing, Zhou Yi, Wang Shixin, et al.Population spatialization in China based on night-time imagery and land use data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2011, 32(24): 9599-9620.
ABSTRACT
DOI:10.1080/01431161.2011.569581      [本文引用:0]
[25] Zhao Naizhuo, Currit Nate, Samson Eric.Net primary production and gross domestic product in China derived from satellite imagery. Ecological Economics, 2011, 70(5): 921-928.
<h2 class="secHeading" id="section_abstract">Abstract</h2><p id="sp0055">Since the 1980s Chinese economic reform has greatly accelerated its economic growth while in contrast China's environment is increasingly degraded. The Chinese government has recognized that environmental protection and sustainable economic development can promote mutual and sustainable co-development of the economy and the environment as a basic national principle. This paper examines the interactions between economic development and environmental change in China that were compared and analyzed for the years 1996 and 2000. Net primary production (NPP) was selected as a proxy evaluator of ecosystems and gross domestic product (GDP) was chosen as a proxy evaluator of economic development. An NPP change map was produced with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) summed annual NPP imagery products. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime imagery was used to produce a Chinese GDP change map. An integrated map was produced to exhibit the combined changes of NPP and GDP. This map showed that in the regions with increased GDP, NPP decreased but the regions with no GDP change were smaller in area for NPP increase while larger in area for NPP decrease. The changing pattern of NPP varied with the developing level of GDP at province level. A province's development of GDP is controlled by its accessibility to natural resources. Interactions between NPP and GDP are greatly affected by factors of spatial location aside from human factors and natural systems' characteristics.</p><h4 id="secGabs_N1cd59dd0N1c93e2b8">Research Highlights</h4><p>? Nighttime imagery is used to estimate GDP at the pixel level. ? Remote sensing is a potential tool to study interactions of social-ecological systems. ? The Changing patterns of NPP and GDP vary by region. ? Globalization leads to uneven outcomes for Chinese social-ecological systems.</p>
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.12.023      [本文引用:1]
[26] 洪国志, 胡华颖, 李郇. 中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析. 地理学报, 2010, 65(12): 1548-1558.
通过空间计量经济学经济收敛标准分析方法的扩展,就中国240 个地级及以上城市的经济增长收敛性展开讨论。运用Moran's I 探讨中国区域经济空间相关模式与集聚,发现1990-2007 年间人均GDP水平显示出强烈的全局正自相关,且局部空间结构相对稳定,各城市要脱离原来的集群有一定困难。文章指出收敛标准分析存在错误方程设定,空间计量分析方法是合适的。空间计量分析结果表明中国城市间存在绝对&beta;收敛,与非空间模型相比收敛速度显著提高且可信,空间因素在区域经济增长与收敛过程中起到重要作用。但敏感性分析显示,绝对收敛的同一稳态以及在空间上并不稳健。从机制看,中国城市间同时存在新古典增长理论和新增长理论所强调的趋同机制。最后,对促进绝对收敛的区域政策进行了讨论,并提出通过模拟经济收敛过程,是判断区域政策有效性的重要工具。
[本文引用:1]
[Hong Guozhi, Hu Huaying, Li Xun.Analysis of regional growth convergence with spatial econometrics in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(12): 1548-1558.]
[27] Zhang Yifeng, Jia Dameng, Zhang Hongye, et al.Spatial structure of valley economic development in the mountainous areas in Beijng. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21(2): 331-345.
Valley economy is a new mode in mountainous area development that is defined by various characters of valley development, and is a distinguishing economical geographic pattern for mountainous area development. The special spatial coupling relations in the distribution of different mountainous elements in valleys are new subjects for the mountain development studies, and such studies are meaningful both for researches and practices. Based on the long term researches on mountainous area development and following a brief exploration into the connotations and the spatial organizing process of valley economy, the authors analyzed the present situations of the development of valley economy in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas, studied the characteristics and the impacts of the spatial structural changes of the valley economy in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas, and finally proposed a rational arrangement of the spatial structure of the valley economy in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas. It is considered in this study that valley economy plays an important role in the development and functional transformation in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas in the new epoch. Firstly, valley economy is not outlined by the administrative boundaries, and it connects most of the villages in the mountainous areas roughly along the major transportation lines. Therefore, valley economy can exert positive influence on the development in the mountainous areas, at least in the aspects such as the rearrangement of industrial structure in the mountainous areas and the coordinated development of rural and urban areas. In addition, it is found that the valley economy in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas is evolved in a spatial organizing stage of secondary concentration, which is characterized by resource-saving, ecological protection and industrial optimization. Therefore, the development of valley economy will be helpful to the coordination between ecological protection and economic development in the mountainous areas, and will promote the integrated development of the mountainous areas. The developing mode of the valley economy in Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas will provide the basis for the decision-making in the transformation of the functional roles of Beijing&#8217;s mountainous areas, and on the other hand, will present experiences for the studies in the mountainous areas outside of Beijing.
DOI:10.1007/s11442-011-0848-3      [本文引用:1]
[28] Lv Wei, Wang Weitong.Unbalanced development, public services and government responsibility: An analysis based on government preference and government efficiency. Social Sciences in China, 2008, 29(4): 63-80.
发展失衡是当前中国经济社会运行中的突出问题,一般认为其直接原因是公共服务的提供不足,症 结在于政府责任的缺失。通过区分“发展阶段型”和“政府责任型”两种失衡形态,可以发现,公共服务供求双方的因素共同导致了中国经济发展失衡问题的集中爆 发,发展阶段型失衡和政府责任型失衡的混合形态是中国当前发展失衡的本质属性。中国经济转轨时期的体制制约了政府的效率,并导致了政府行为的偏差,是当前 发展失衡的根本症结所在。因此,改变中国发展失衡现状的途径,不应仅仅要求政府在公共服务领域承担更多责任,更应立足体制转轨背景,加快解决引致政府行为 偏差的体制性问题。
DOI:10.1080/02529200802500342      [本文引用:1]