本文从气候灾害度和灰色预测的计算实例,同时得出1988年是少有的干旱高温年,说明这两种方法在山区气候灾害定量分析和预测上是可行的。

This paper calculates the degree of climatic disaster of a district through grey prediction and concludes that 1988 was an uncommon year of dryness and high temperature. It is clear that this method is feasible in analysing and predicting climatic disaster by quantity in mountain areas.