随着国民经济的发展,城市化规模的扩大以及人口的增加,华北平原农业水资源的供需矛盾日趋尖锐。人们在进行供需评价时,曾一度停留在水量的供需平衡上,以需定供,缺少对水资源供需之间的矛盾及不协调的问题进行深层次的分析。此文采用综合评价模型对农业水资源供需现状进行评价。这是一种定量化的评价分析方法,即首先对影响供需状况的因素进行分类,形成一个层次,而每一个因素又由若干个指标组成,构成下一个层次,依次类推,这样就构成了一个层次间互相联系的指标体系。对每个地区,每一个因素和指标用评定系数来表示该因素或指标对供需状况的作用,然后再用综合评价模型对该地区供需状况进行计算和总体评价。

Contradiction between supply and demand of water resources for agricultural development is becoming more and more serious with economic development, spreading urbanization and population increase. Usually, the evaluation of water supply & water demand focuses on whether there is a balance between water supply and water demand and attempts to get this balance by unceasingly increasing water supply even including water transfer to meet water demand. Such conception is definite wrong because water resources are limited. In fact, the relationship between supply and demand is not merely a problem of water amount, but a systematic project related to society-economy, environment, population, resources, science and technique. Therefore, a integrated evaluation model has been accepted to quantitatively analyze the condition of water supply and demand in this paper. First of all, the factors influencing water supply and demand are classified and considered at the first level. Each of the factors is described by using several variables, and these variables are considered at the second level. In this way an indicator system composed of the interrelated factors and variables at different levels will be formed. For each region, the function of each factor or variable can be evaluated by using a criteria system. The function of the factors or variables are weighed by using a marking system in which higher mark for a satisfactory factor or variable, vice versa. The condition of supply and demand can be estimated according to sum of-the marks of the variables considered. The evaluation procedure follows:1.to establish an indicator system for evaluating water supply and demand 2.to analyze and calculate weight for each factor and variable 3.to establish the integrated evaluation model 4.to evaluate the conditions of water supply and demand.