都市圈经济资源环境系统通过相互作用形成了一个具多重反馈的耦合巨系统,三者间存在互相制约、相互作用的高阶、非线性复杂关系,传统的线性研究范式面临挑战。引入系统动力学理论,通过因果关系和流图分析方法,以武汉城市圈为例,建立经济-资源-环境耦合作用的系统动力学模型,结果显示:①模型具有很好的普适性,能真实反映系统要素之间相互耦合的动态演化过程,可以为调控经济资源环境系统协调发展提供决策参考;②借助模型可以对内部错综复杂、相互联系和相互耦合的巨系统进行动态多情景模拟,并揭示出协调发展模式下的经济快速增长为资源有效利用和环境保护治理提供更好的支持,三者相互促进,是武汉城市圈实现可持续发展的相对最佳方案。

Economy-Resources-Environment system(ERE system)is a compound dynamic system formed by the interaction,which is a nonlinear coupling system with multiple feedback channels,and there are complex relationships among the three elements,such as constraint,the interaction of higher order and nonlinear relations.Therefore,it is hard for traditional methods to deal with such problems.With the aid of System Dynamics(SD)based on the information feedback control theory,this paper sets up the SD model of ERE system for multi-scene simulation in the Wuhan Metropolitan Region.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1)SD model has a strong simulation and regulation ability,and it can reflect the coupling between elements of dynamic evolution system.Moreover it is good for regulatory decision of the coordinated development of ERE system.(2)This paper examines four simulating programs for simulation of ERE system in the Wuhan Metropolitan Region, and finds out that the coordinated development model(Model IV)is the best program, because resources are effectively used and the environment is well protected with the rapid economic growth,and it is the best option for the coordinated development of the Wuhan Metropolitan Region.