旅游小镇增长的时空模拟是城镇化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化研究的重要手段。近年来旅游小镇的城镇化以其旅游业发展带动城镇发展的独特模式引起国内外学者的高度关注。论文以元胞自动机模型为基础,运用旅游小镇旅游城镇化增长模型,对河北省三坡镇的旅游城镇化发展进行模拟与预测。模拟结果显示:①2005-2010年研究区城镇增长主要围绕现有镇区范围扩展,全域年均增速为0.015 km²/年;②2010-2015年主要城镇增长区位于镇内距离景区较近的苟各庄村附近,全域年均增速为0.040 km²/年,其他区域则保持相对较为平稳的状态。研究表明元胞自动机模型在模拟旅游小镇演化具有较高的可靠性,为研究城镇化条件下区域生态景观格局变化提供前提保证,对于提高土地资源利用效率,保障小镇健康有序发展具有十分重要的意义。

A spatio-temporal simulation is an important approach to analyzing land use/cover change influenced by urbanization.Many scholars have shown great interests in the unique development pattern of small town induced by tourism.Based on the cellular automaton(CA) model,the spatio-temporal growth of Sanpo town in Hebei province,China was simulated and predicted,using the tourism urbanization growth model.It showed that the great changed happened in the old town district from 2005 to 2010,and with the annual average growth of 0.015 km² per year;The large growth from 2010 to 2015 will happen in Gougezhuang Village,an important village of Sanpo town close to the tourist attraction,and the annual average growth of the whole area would be 0.040 km² per year.The results showed that cellular automata(CA)model had high reliability in reflecting the spatio-temporal evolution of a tourist town,which contributed to understand the process of urbanization induced by tourism,increase the use efficiency of land and protect the healthy and orderly development of towns.