1917—1918年冬春之际的绥察晋大鼠疫是第三次世界鼠疫大流行的典型事件，也是中国防疫史上具有里程碑意义的重大事件。本文采用历史计量分析、社会网络分析、时空聚类分析和分段结构方程模型等方法，以精细到“日”和“村”的时空尺度，对绥察晋大鼠疫的传播网络、传播特征、死亡分异、驱动机制等进行定量分析，结果发现：① 鼠疫首发于五原县扒子补隆村，蔓延绥远、察哈尔、山西、直隶、京兆、山东、安徽、江苏8省52县旗967村，萨拉齐、归绥、丰镇、右玉是鼠疫传播的主要节点。② 鼠疫流行期142天，春节返乡期间流行最炽；鼠疫传播以近邻侵染式为主，跨点跳跃式为辅，这与东北大鼠疫以跳跃式传播为主的模式形成鲜明对比；鼠疫传播速度整个流行期平均为10.08 km/天，鼎盛期平均为31.12 km/天，这与东北大鼠疫的传播速度相当。③ 鼠疫导致至少16,285人死亡，萨拉齐-丰镇-陶林交通沿线为死亡重灾区；流行期内死亡人数的集聚中心自疫区西北向东南迁移。④ 平均气温、人口密度、交通密度是影响鼠疫传播的内生因子，湿度、海拔、风速、疫源地距离等通过内生因子产生影响。本研究系统揭示了地理环境与鼠疫传播之间的因果关系，为理解鼠疫传播的历史地理分异与驱动机制提供了实证依据，对重大传染病的差异化防控具有重要参考价值。

The 1917-1918 Suiyuan-Chahar-Shanxi (Sui-Cha-Jin) Great Pestis, occurring during the winter-spring transition, stands as a quintessential event of the third global plague pandemic and a landmark in China's epidemic prevention history. Using historical metrological analysis, social network analysis, spatio-temporal clustering, and piecewise structural equation modeling, this study quantitatively analyzes the transmission network, propagation characteristics, mortality differentiation, and driving mechanisms of the plague at a refined “daily” and “village-level” spatio-temporal scale. We found that: (1) The Sui-Cha-Jin Great Pestis originated in Patsebolong Village, Wuyuan County and rapidly spread across eight provinces—Suiyuan, Chahar, Shanxi, Zhili, Jingzhao, Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu—affecting 52 counties / banners and 967 villages. Its transmission network centered on major nodes: Saratsi, Kweisui, Fengchen, and Youyu. (2) The Sui-Cha-Jin Great Pestis occurred in winter and spring, lasting 142 days. The most severe outbreak coincided with the Spring Festival travel period. The transmission spread mainly by neighboring infection, supplemented by jumping across points, a pattern that contrasts sharply with the predominantly jump-style transmission of the Northeast China Great Plague in 1910-1911. The spread proceeded at an average rate of 10.08 km per day during the epidemic period and 31.12 km per day during its peak phase. (3) At least 16,285 deaths occurred, with the Saratsi-Fengchen-Taolin transporta-tion corridor as the hardest-hit mortality zone. The gravity center of deaths migrated from northwest to southeast, with the intensity of mortality continuously increasing. (4) Endogenous variables directly influencing the spread of pestis included average temperature, population density, and traffic density. Variables such as humidity, altitude, wind speed, and distance from the first place have an impact on the spread of the pestis through endogenous variables. This study systematically reveals the causal relationship between the geographic environment and the spread of the pestis, provides empirical evidence for understanding the historical geographic differentiation and driving mechanisms, and offers significant reference value for the differentiated prevention and control of major infectious diseases.

真诚感谢两位匿名评审专家在创新点凝练与实践价值深化方面提出的宝贵意见！正是您们的建设性意见和建议，提升了本文的质量。