从不同燃料和不同地区入手,分析了我国1995~2006年间一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化情况。结果表明:1995~2006年间,我国一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳年总排放量呈现"先减少后增加"的发展态势,其拐点出现在2000年,而且2001年后各个省(区、市)的二氧化碳年排放量较前期均有大幅度的增加,总排放量由1995年的78678万t碳增长到2006年的146919万t碳,年均增长率5.84％,人均二氧化碳年排放量也由0.62t碳/人增加到1.12t碳/人;煤炭消费导致的二氧化碳排放量占全国二氧化碳年总排放量的79%~85％;我国七大区和大部分省(区、市)二氧化碳年排放量与全国总排放量有类似的发展态势,其中华北、华东地区二氧化碳排放量居全国首位,山西省的二氧化碳排放量位居全国第一。

Global change is an important scientific issue that concerns the survival and development of all human beings. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 90% of the possibilities of global warming are attributed to greenhouse gases produced by human use of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide produced by energy consumption has great pushing effects on global climate change. The studies concerning energy consumption and the emission of carbon dioxide have become the academic focus in current energy environment studies, and they are necessary for the security of economic development and diplomatic negotiations of China. In order to promote the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment of China, the paper analyzes the domestic energy consumption and the present status and various emission scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions in China. Firstly, according to the consumption of primary energy in China, the paper summarizes the carbon dioxide emission factors and methods that are adapt to the situation of China. Secondly, it analyzes the primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions during the period 1995-2006 from different fossil fuels and in different regions. The primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions present a trend 'first decrease and later increase' from 1995 to 2006. The inflexion of the changes was 2000, the carbon dioxide emissions since 2001 are bigger than those before 2000. The total carbon dioxide emissions increased from 786.78 million tons carbon to 1 469.19 million tons carbon, and the per capita emissions increased from 0.62 tons carbon to 1.12 tons carbon from 1995 to 2006, with an annual rate of 5.84%. The structural difference in the primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions was relatively great, among which coal accounts for 79%~85%, oil, 14%~19%, and natural gas is 1.23%~1.96%. The seven regions and most of provinces (municipalities or autonomous regions) have a similar trend in the total China's carbon dioxide emissions. The average carbon dioxide emissions for North China and Northeast China are the highest among the seven regions of China. The annual amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the growing rates of Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Henan are much greater than those of the other provinces (municipalities or autonomous regions).