根据城市化与生态环境耦合含义及框架,利用SD的原理和方法,以江苏省为例,建立了区域城市化与生态环境耦合的SD模型,并选取五种典型发展模式进行策略情景模拟。分析表明:①区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合具有复杂性、非线性和时变性的特点,SD模型分析此类问题具有明显的适用性。模型的历史数据拟合的误差小,反映它具有一定可靠性,能在一定程度上解释区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合的复杂行为,评估城市化对生态环境的潜在效应;②在不同调控策略的发展模式下,该省城市化与生态环境耦合的情景存在较大差异,五种模式都有其显著的比较优势,同时也存在明显的发展缺陷;③根据该省的发展特点和区域发展差异并结合城市化发展一般规律,分阶段和分地域推进人口城市化发展模式和社会城市化发展模式,可以实现该省人口、经济、城市化和生态环境协调发展的目的。
关键词：
城市化; 生态环境; SD; 模拟; 江苏
刘耀彬, 陈 斐, 李仁东
. 区域城市化与生态环境耦合发展模拟 及调控策略 ——以江苏省为例[J]. 地理研究, 2007
, 26(1)
: 187
-196
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2007010023
According to the rule and framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling, the system dynamic model of the coupling system between urbanization and eco-environment in Jiangsu province has been designed by means of SD method. Based on Jiangsu’s serial statistical data from 1990 to 2003, the five scenarios of the coupling models during 2000-2015 have been simulated. The results show that: Firstly, for there exist complex, nonlinear and changeable characteristics of the coupling system between regional urbanization and eco-environment, in terms of SD merits, it is applicable for the SD to deal with the complexity resulted from regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling. The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2003 indicates the SD model is reliable to a certain extent, which can reveal some complex actions of the coupling system and evaluate the potential effects that urbanization intimidated eco-environment. Secondly, there exist significantly differences among the five development models, which show both comparative advantages and drawbacks. Thirdly, according to the characteristics and regional disparities of Jiangsu development and the general rule of world urbanization, it is revealed that only when either population urbanization model or society urbanization model to be adopted correspondingly can the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment be realized.
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