本文研究了1980~2004年江苏省工业废水排放与经济增长的动态关系,结果表明1980年以来江苏省工业废水排放量在波动中平缓增长,排放强度不断下降,主要来源于制造业和能源生产部门,南京市、苏南三市和苏中苏北九市的排放量大致各占排放总量的1/3。采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型模拟了1980~1996年和1997~2004年工业废水排放量和人均GDP之间的关系,结果显示未来江苏省工业废水排放趋向于在经历较短时间的上升后逐渐下降。采用分解分析方法分析了三种效应在工业废水排放变化中的贡献率,结果表明广义技术效应、规模效应是影响工业废水排放的重要因素,但广义技术效应起到决定性的作用。
Industrial wastewater discharge is the most important source of water pollution in China, and the water environment in humid regions has burdened heavily in the process of industrialization. This paper analyzed the discharge characteristics of industrial wastewater from 1980 to 2004 in Jiangsu Province, which is located in the eastern developed area of China, the relationship between the discharge amount and the economic growth, and the factors influencing discharge change. The result showed that because of the steady development of economic growth, the amount of industrial wastewater has increased slowly with some fluctuations since 1980, while the discharge intensity decreased. Compared to the increase rate of GDP in Jiangsu during the same period, the growth rate of wastewater was much slower. The source of industrial wastewater came mainly from both manufacturing sector and energy producing sector. Nanjing city, three cities in southern Jiangsu, and nine cities in cemtral-northery Jiangsu possessed about 1/3 of the total annual wastewater discharge of the province each.The relationship between industrial wastewater and economic growth was also simulated adopting the Environmental Kuznets Curve model. The studies argued the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and GDP per capita was an inverted U-shaped+U-shaped model in 1980-1996, while inverted U-shaped model in 1997-2004. Simulation reveals that the discharge amount tends to climb up in a short period and then declines with the economic development. Applying decomposition analysis, factors influencing industrial wastewater discharge in the periods of 1997-2000 and 2001-2004 were decomposed into generalized technical effect (GTE), scale effect and structure effect. The result showed that GTE and scale effect were the most important factors determining discharge change, while GTE had crucial function on pollution control.Stimulation of the enterprises-induced pollution suggests that the environmental policy should place emphasis on enhancing the contribution of GTE in Jiangsu province in the future.
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