基于北京1996年和2001年两次基本单位普查等数据,本文采用OPM模型和GIS分析等方法,定量研究了期间北京制造业区位因子特征及其变化。结果表明,北京制造业企业整体呈现出郊区化发展态势,且这一进程仍在继续;各主要区位因子对企业择址影响不尽相同——训练有素的劳动者的分布作用尤为突出;就企业而言,外资企业初期为规避风险倾向于城区,而后期为降低成本倾向于郊区,但规模变量似乎不重要;市场指向性强的行业偏好城区,资源型产业偏好郊区,技术密集型产业偏好高素质劳动力"供应地"集中的城区;集聚经济推动制造业企业往郊县的工业园区集中;保护生态的政策使得企业更易选择在环境管制较少的地区发展,而交通运输的便利提高了企业城区择址的几率。

It is significant for regional development whether the distribution of manufacturing industry is rational or not. Based on data from the census of Beijing's basic units in 1996 and 2001, this paper, with the Ordered Probit Model (OPM) and analytical techniques in Geographical Information System (GIS), attempts to probe into how the location factors impact the manufacturing industry in Beijing these years, as well as the changes of the impacts. On the one hand, through these studies concerned with a special region, the capital, it might offer the development of Location Theories some material, and it also helps to promote the practical application of the OPM; on the other hand, the studies' findings can be useful references to both the adjustment of industrial distribution and the planning of industrial development in Beijing in the future. The findings suggest that:(1) Beijing's manufacturing industry is being in the course of developing towards outer city and suburbs, and that development trend accords with the characters of Beijing's resources, environment and economy, which is an optimization of the spatial distribution pattern.(2) The OPM's results validate findings (1), and reveal that labor factor, enterprise factor, industry factor, convergency factor, and geography factor have different effects on the locational behaviors.(3)The laborers' quality plays a vital part in Beijing's manufacturing industry's spatial distribution, and in order to maintain the higher level of industrial structure, Beijing should improve the laborers' quality in the outer city and suburbs, which are the most important viewpoints of this study.