草原火灾作为自然灾害的一种,是草原地区重要的灾害之一,对我国草原地区的可持续发展有着严重的负面效应。因此进行草原火灾风险评价研究对草原火灾管理显得极为重要。本文依据自然灾害风险分析原理,采用加权综合评分法、层次分析法 (AHP)在综合分析吉林省西部草原火灾的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的基础上,建立草原火灾风险指数模型 (GFDRI),对研究区草原火灾风险程度进行了定量评价,并借助GIS技术将吉林省西部草原火灾分为轻度 、中度、重度和极重度4个风险区。检验结果证明草原火灾风险评价和分区具有较高的可靠性,可为当地草原防火部门火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供依据和指导。

With the development of disaster research and economy, disaster risk assessment has become a new research area, which will help decision makers to choose optimal technical policies to manage disaster and to set up disaster mitigation strategies. As one of the important natural disasters, the grassland disaster has greatly influenced the development of stockbreeding. So it is necessary to research on grassland fire risk. The grassland in the western Jilin province is an important one in China, which belongs to Songnen grassland in Northeast China, and is also a region susceptible to fire. According to the statistics, the fire disaster in the grassland in the western Jilin province occurred 142 times and affected an area of 7095.5ha during the period 2001-2004, thus seriously threatening and restricting sustainable stockbreeding development in the region. In terms of natural disaster generating mechanism and risk analysis formula, the grassland fire disaster risk index (GFDRI) is set up based on the analysis of grassland fire disaster, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery ability by using linear weighting model, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grassland disaster risk evaluation model. The risk values of grassland fire disaster are calculated respectively in the western Jilin province. The study area was divided into four risk regions, namely, extremely heavy, heavy, moderate and light.The results are proved to be higher reliable.This study is can provide reference and guidance for grassland fire disaster insurance, managing grassland fire disaster and developing strategies to mitigate grassland fire disaster and reduce losses from it. Because grassland fire disaster was influenced by many factors, the index such as vegetation and terrain should be taken into account when the study is carryied out in other place where the terrain changes sharply and the vegetation varies. At the same time, the index value should be changed correspondingly. In the further research the spatial data should be applied to describe the distribution and variety of grassland fire risk.