本文在建立耦合系统评价指标体系的基础上,运用灰色关联分析法,构建了人口结构与区域经济交互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,揭示了内蒙古人口结构与区域经济耦合的主要因素及耦合关系,并从时空角度对耦合度的演变规律进行了分析。研究发现,内蒙古人口结构与区域经济系统要素耦合的机制复杂,而且关系密切;耦合度空间分布呈现与人口规模相反的规律,全区可划分为协调、磨合、拮抗和低水平耦合等4种类型。总体而言,内蒙古人口结构与区域经济耦合的空间分布基本以拮抗类型为主、低水平耦合次之,与1990年相比,2000年的耦合度呈现出上升的趋势;耦合度时序变动表现出一定的阶段性和波动性。
Based on previous censuses of Inner Mongolia, spot check of population in several years, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region statistical almanac in several years and related material, the dissertation established an evaluation index to the coupling between population structure and regional economy according to the current development and problems of the region. Using methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and grey correlative analysis, the dissertation built a correlation model and a coupling model of the interaction between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia.It analyzed the coupling between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia, the static space distribution of the coupling of counties in Inner Mongolia in 2000, the dynamic contrast of distribution in 1990 and 2000 and the evolving rule of the coupling from 1993 to 2004 in Inner Mongolia. The results show, that the coupling mechanism between population structure and components of regional economy is sophisticated, population structure is closely connected with the development of regional economy in Inner Mongolia; but the coupling distribution degree between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia presents an inverse law to population scale.Inner Mongolia can be divided into four types: harmony, amelioration, conflict and low-level coupling. In general, amelioration predominates, followed by low-level coupling, compared 2000 with 1990, the coupling degree increases dynamically; and the sequential change of the coupling degree between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia present different phases and undulations.
[1] 宋健.结构问题是21世纪中国人口的核心问题.市场与人口分析,2002,8(1):26~30.
[2] 王维国,徐勇,李秋影.我国人口年龄结构变动对经济发展影响的定量分析.市场与人口分析,2004,10(6):1~8.
[3] 尹仁燮.韩国人口结构变化对储蓄的影响.人口学刊,2006,(6):8~11.
[4] 姜向群,杜鹏.中国人口老龄化对经济可持续发展影响的分析.市场与人口分析,2000,(2):1~8.
[5] 姚静,李爽.中国人口老龄化的特点、成因及对策分析.人文地理,2000,(10):24~29.
[6] 黄佐钘,黄健元,陈龙真.人口老龄化对社会经济的影响——基于江苏省第五次人口普查数据的分析.市场与人口分析,2004,10(6):52~56.
[7] 陈友华.人口老龄化、经济发展与老年社会福利设施建设——以南京市为例.人口学刊,2004,(2):20~25.
[8] 珊丹.深圳市人口结构分析与经济发展.西北人口,2002,(4):10~11.
[9] Zweifel,et al.Ageing of population and health care expenditure: A red herring ?Journal of Health Economics,1999,(8):485~496.
[10] David A Wise.The economics of Aging.The University of Chicago,1989.
[11] 王德文.教育在中国经济增长和社会转型中的作用分析.中国人口科学,2003(1):22~31.
[12] 王维国,杨晓华.我国人口素质与经济协调发展关系的实证研究.西北人口,2006,(2):26~28.
[13] 于蜀,徐桂琼.经济转型与中国人口职业结构的变动.中国人口科学,1999,(5):38~44.
[14] 孙晓芳,原喜泽.人口城乡结构与经济发展的相关性——基于太原市的分析.山西财经大学学报,2006,(10):42~46.
[15] 贺菊煌.人口变动对经济的影响.人口与经济,2004,(2):1~6.
[16] 李永浮,鲁奇,周成虎.2010年北京市流动人口预测.地理研究,2006,(1):131~140.
[17] 冯健.杭州市人口密度空间分布及其演化的模型研究.地理研究,2002,21(5):635~646.
[18] 刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析.地理学报,2005,60(2):241~242.
[19] 陈彦光,罗静.城市化水平与城市化速度的关系探讨.地理研究,2006,25(6):1063~1072.
[20] Markusen J R.Trade in producer services and in other specialized intermediate inputs.American Economic Review,1989,79(1):85~95.
[21] Glaeser E.Learning in cities.Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254~277.
[22] 黄金川,方创琳.城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析.地理研究,2003,22(2):211~220.