根据1951~2002年中国194台站的雨日资料,运用分形理论中R/S分析法的基本原理,设计了两项Hurst指数试验。研究并预测了中国5大区域年雨日的气候变化趋势。研究表明:中国5大区域未来年雨日变化趋势与过去50年来的变化有着很好的自相似性。两项Hurst指数试验结果表明中国今后年雨日将继续减少。依照5大区域的气候倾向率,未来10年青藏高原和川西高原平均每十年减少雨日3.7~3.8天;中国东部南方区和中国东部北方区平均每十年减少5.9~6.8天;四川盆地年雨日减少最多,平均每十年减少雨日12.3天。且期间雨日没有突变。
冯新灵, 罗隆诚, 邱丽丽, 冯自立
. 青藏高原至中国东部年雨日变化趋势的分形研究[J]. 地理研究, 2007
, 26(4)
: 835
-843
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2007040021
The precipitation climatic change includes the changes of the rainfall and the rainy days. Rainy day change is an important constituent of the precipitation climatic change. Under the background of the temperature rising and the climatic warming, how will the rainy days be able to change? This problem belongs to one of the important contents on global climatic change research. The author studied the regional change, the tendency change and the future change of the annual rainy days of China. Using the rainy day data from 1951 to 2002 at 194 meteorological stations of China, the author studied and forecasted climatic change tendency of annual rainy days in five regions of China with the basic principle of the fractal theory, R/S analytic method. The study indicates that, there is a similarity between future change tendencies of annual rainy days in five regions with that of the past 50 years. In order to make an in-depth study of the future change of rainy days, this study designed two items of Hurst Index experiment and inferred the changing tendency, the transition and the sudden change of rainy days with the corresponding relation between two experimental results and the annual changing tendency of the rainy days. The result indicates that the annual rainy days have the completely consistent tendency to reduce in five regions of China, but the change of rainy days shows a remarkable regional differential characteristic. The rainy days will reduce 6.8 days every ten years in the next ten years in the north of Eastern China and 5.9 days in the south of Eastern China. The reduction of that of Sichuan Basin is the most, which will be 12.3 days every ten years, the Tibetan Plateau and Western Sichuan Plateau are the least, which will be 3.7 to 3.8 days but be not stable. There is the transition of climatic change in five regions of China, but there is no sudden climatic change of rainy days in this period.
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