住房制度改革以来,中国城市居住迁移率大规模增加,成为城市重构和社会空间分异的基础动力。利用生命历程理论,通过家庭问卷调查,本文使用事件史模型动态地模拟了居住迁移,并比较外来人口与本地人口居住迁移影响因素的差异。整体来看,1980年以来年均居住迁移率呈上升趋势,外来人口的年均居住迁移率要比本地人口高。住房性质、婚姻变化、工作变动、居住区位和年份等变量都显著影响居住迁移,反映了住房制度改革、住房市场和分配环境、家庭生命周期等因素对居住迁移的影响;但影响程度户籍间的差异明显,工作地区位的变动导致通勤成本的变化是外来人口居住迁移的最显著影响因子,而家庭生命周期和住房特征变量是本地人口居住迁移的最显著影响变量,反映了两者之间的本质差别。居住区位对本地人口的居住迁移影响显著,内圈层居民的迁移率相对较低,而居住区位变量对外来人口的影响相对较弱。
As a more and more important statistic method in studies of residential mobility, longitudinal analysis could dynamically simulate residential mobility because this analysis could relate residential mobility to not only specific events or triggers in personal or household's life, such as marriage change and the birth of a child, but also the main changes of housing market in a broader social and economic context. Making use of survey data collected in Guangzhou in 2005 and forming personal-year longitudinal data spanning from 1980 to 2005, the longitudinal analysis results show that residential mobility rate manifests a rising trend from 1980 to 2005 with close connection with housing reform process.Non-native population has evidently higher mobility rate than native population because non-native population has higher rate of employment change, leading to big probability of residential mobility. Housing types, marital status change, job change and time variable indicating the housing form process, housing market and distributional environment and household's life cycle respectively all have significant effects on residential mobility of non-native and native population, but the significant extent has big differences. Life-cycle change is more significant in causing residential mobility of native population, but job change which will change the commuting cost is more significant for the non-native population, indicating the essential differences between the non-native and the native population. Residential location has significant impacts on native population's residential mobility with higher probability of residential mobility of those who reside in the suburban area, but has insignificant impacts on residential mobility of the non-native population.
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