中国各省级行政区未来气候耗能变化可能情景
收稿日期: 2008-02-22
修回日期: 2008-11-24
网络出版日期: 2009-01-25
基金资助
国家科技支撑项目课题(2007BAC29B02)
Change scenarios of China's provincial climate-sensitive components of energy consumption
Received date: 2008-02-22
Revised date: 2008-11-24
Online published: 2009-01-25
Supported by
国家科技支撑项目课题(2007BAC29B02)
利用7个全球耦合气候模式的集成结果,得到我国2020~2029和2050~2059年气温和度日变化的可能情景。结合社会经济发展的影响,计算得到我国各省级行政区未来气候耗能变化的可能情景。结果表明:我国未来平均年总度日有显著的降低,总度日的变化有明显的地域性,西部和北方地区降低,南方地区有所增加;取暖度日普遍降低,降温度日有不同程度的增加;2020~2029年和2050~2059年度日变化空间格局相似, 2050~2059年的变化幅度大于2020~2029年;未来我国南方沿海大部分地区的气候耗能有所增加,气候耗能下降区主要分布在北方、中部和西部地区;气候耗能变化空间格局有度日变化的作用,也受社会经济发展水平的影响,同一地区的各省(区、市)具体气候耗能变化值也有较大差异。
任玉玉, 任国玉, 千怀遂 . 中国各省级行政区未来气候耗能变化可能情景[J]. 地理研究, 2009 , 28(1) : 36 -44 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2009010006
This paper projects future change in provincial climate-sensitive components of energy consumption of China, which resulted from the anthropogenic climate change and socio-economic development. The climate scenarios for 2020-2029 and 2050-2059 are obtained from seven IPCC AOGCMs simulations. The result shows that, by 2021-2030, the degree-days increase, compared with 1990-1999, in the south of China and decrease in the north of China. The situation for 2050-2059 is very similar to 2020-2029 in spatial patterns but the change magnitude is bigger. To climate-sensitive components of energy consumption, for 2020-2029 the increment is the largest in southern China and eastern coastal region, including the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. For the 2050-2059 scenario, the increase occurs in the south of China and the Bohai Sea Rim, while the decrease occurs in the center of China, part of western China and the north of northeast China. The special change value of climate-sensitive components of energy consumption of provinces in the same climatic province is different because the change of climate-sensitive components of energy consumption depends on not only climate change but also socio-economic development. Compared to the 2020-2029 scenario, provinces with a rising trend in climate-sensitive components of energy consumption increase in number in 2050-2059. Future climate-sensitive components of energy consumption still need further study due to the limit of present data and methods.
Key words： climate change; degree-day; energy consumption; future scenarios
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