城市扩张进程中水环境污染成本响应模拟
收稿日期: 2008-05-27
修回日期: 2008-11-20
网络出版日期: 2009-03-25
基金资助
国家科技基础性工作专项重点项目(2007FY110300);中国科学院地理与资源研究所知识创新三期工程项目。
Simulating the response of eco-environment to urban expansion
Received date: 2008-05-27
Revised date: 2008-11-20
Online published: 2009-03-25
Supported by
国家科技基础性工作专项重点项目(2007FY110300);中国科学院地理与资源研究所知识创新三期工程项目。
本文旨在建立地表水环境污染对城市扩张的响应模型,以模拟预测城市扩张进程中的社会经济发展、土地效益和生态环境成本的动态变化过程。首先,应用遥感影像解译技术,对城市扩张引起的土地利用变化进行定量分析;其次,基于社会福利最大化和绿色GDP(GGDP)等理论,模拟城市地表水环境污染成本在不同社会经济情景下对城市扩张的响应。以西安为典型研究区域,分析了该区在1996~2006年间城市扩张行为及其对地表水环境污染的影响,结果表明:在不同的社会经济发展条件下,有着不同的城市扩张最优点(均衡点);城市扩张引起的边际生态环境成本小于平均土地效益时,城市扩张会使社会福利变好,城市扩张应继续;技术进步可优化地表水环境污染成本和提高土地利用效率,优化城市扩张均衡点;在现有的经济技术水平发展条件下,理论上西安城市扩张最优点在2024年达到。
吴永娇, 马海州, 董锁成 . 城市扩张进程中水环境污染成本响应模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2009 , 28(2) : 311 -320 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2009020005
This study aims to disclose dynamic relationship among socio-economic development, land use and eco-environment efficiency by proposing a response model of eco-environment to urban expansion. Firstly, we quantitatively describe the changes of land use from urban expansion by using the technology of remote sensing image interpretation. Secondly, dynamic relationship between eco-environment efficiency and socio-economic development is simulated through proposed model which is constructed based on theories of the maximum social welfare and Green GDP (GGDP). The proposed model is applied to Xi'an, China. Our model proves to be efficienct in simulating the dynamic relationship among land use, economic growth and eco-environmental efficiency through the analysis of urban expansion process in Xi'an. Results show that urban expansion will make the social welfare better only if marginal eco-environment cost caused by the urban expansion is less than the average land use; the improved technology and technological innovation can reduce eco-environment cost and increase land use efficiency, thus postpone the terminal of urban expansion. The simulated result shows that the urban expansion of urbanization process in Xi'an should be suspended in 2024 under the current situation.
Key words： land use; urban eco-environment; urbanization; green GDP; Xi’an
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