京津冀都市圈人口增长特征及其解释
收稿日期: 2008-06-16
修回日期: 2008-10-26
网络出版日期: 2010-11-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40671046);国家社会科学基金(07BJY070);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET06-0022)
Empirical research on influencing factors on population growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region
Received date: 2008-06-16
Revised date: 2008-10-26
Online published: 2010-11-20
Supported by
国家自然科学基金项目(40671046);国家社会科学基金(07BJY070);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET06-0022)
李国平, 陈秀欣 . 京津冀都市圈人口增长特征及其解释[J]. 地理研究, 2009 , 28(1) : 191 -202 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2009010021
As a rising metropolitan region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region has an extremely important strategic position in the regional development pattern of China. During the past several decades, the spatial structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region has greatly changed. The research on that can not only help reveal the spatial characteristics of the regional economy, and the trends of their evolution, and determine the regional development stage, but also bear important implications for regional planning. Agglomeration and dispersion of population are the fundamental reasons for the evolution of regional spatial structure. People are the main micro-economic actors, so the authors choose the evolution of the spatial distribution of population as the research focus. This paper analyzes the population growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region from 1990 to 2000. By using three classes of variables, this paper studies the influencing factors on the population growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region and its disparity. Three main conclusions are as follows: (1) The population grows faster in the southern part of the region than in the northern part. The distribution of population densities shows that the agglomeration of population in the region has become more evident. (2) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region has a polycentric spatial structure. There exist two high-density corridors within the region in 1990 (the Beijing-Tianjin corridor, and the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang corridor), and three (with the Beijing-Tangshan corridor as the newly added one) in 2000. (3) The econometric analysis indicates that the natural conditions and the economic factors have significant impacts on the population growth. The lower elevation values, the faster growth rates of per capita GDP, the faster development of the tertiary industry and the larger market potentials can lead to the faster population growth. The model also shows that although both the natural conditions and the economic factors have important impacts on the population growth, the influences of the latter are much greater.
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