中部地区(包括山西、河南、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南6省)是我国重要的粮食主产区,在分析中部地区粮食生产特征的基础上,进一步分析了中部地区粮食生产对我国粮食安全的影响。结论如下 :(1)1978年以来,中部地区粮食产量总体持续增长,年均增长2.12%;(2)中部地区粮食生产年均占到全国水平的30.01%,中部地区的粮食生产波动会对我国粮食生产产生客观的影响;(3)中部地区粮食生产具有一定的波动性,但是幅度不大;(4)灰色关联分析表明,有效灌溉面积、粮食播种面积和成灾面积是影响中部地区粮食综合生产能力的主要因素。由此,应从我国粮食安全的高度去重视中部地区粮食生产,采取各项政策措施来促进中部地区粮食生产的稳定与增长。

Central China, including Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, is the country’s major food production area. This paper analyzes its grain production scales from grain sown area and grain output. By surplus method, it explores fluctuation of grain production and its characteristics with time sequence data of 1978~2006 grain production. First, the fluctuation is a classical one, which fluctuates in the increase and decrease of total grain production, second, it is a short period fluctuation which takes place in 2~3 years, third, except few years, the fluctuation is within 5%. Meanwhile gray interrelated mode is established with gray systematic theory to analyze the influentiing factors of grain comprehensive productive capacity. Irrigation area, grain sown area and disaster stricken area are the major influentiing factors. Based on the characteristics of grain production in Central China, the paper analyzes its influence on China’s grain safety: first, since 1978, Central China’s grain production has been increasing by 2.12% per year; second, Central China’ grain production occupies 30% of average national grain production which has an objective impact on China grain production; third, Central China’s grain production fluctuates to a certain degree but not so much; and fourth, gray interrelated mode indicates irrigation area, grain sown area and disaster stricken area are the major influentiing elements for grain comprehensive productive capacity. Effective regulation and control measures can promote grain production and guarantee China’s grain safety. First of all, the function and status of a commodity grain production base cannot be changed in the central part, and the protection of farmland and agricultural infrastructure should be strengthened; second, stabilizing the current policies and measures, constructing a long-term system to support national grain production, and maintaining and upgrading farmers' initiative; and third, bringing into full play scientific technology and innovation.