过去2000年中国气候变化研究
收稿日期: 2010-07-30
修回日期: 2010-08-16
网络出版日期: 2010-09-20
基金资助
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB950100);国家杰出青年科学基金(40625002);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q1-01、KZCX2-YW-315)
An overview of research on climate change in China during the past 2000 years
Received date: 2010-07-30
Revised date: 2010-08-16
Online published: 2010-09-20
总结了中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所在过去2000年中国气候变化研究方面的主要进展,并对未来研究动向进行了展望。在过去10余年中,中科院地理资源所的历史气候变化研究在已有基础上,面向国际本领域研究的前缘科学问题,开展了大量研究工作,在代用资料的收集、整理与数据库建设,温度与降水变化重建以及气候变化的时空特征分析等方面取得了许多新成果。未来不但需要进一步利用历史文献、树轮等气候变化重建手段,加强高分辨率的气候变化重建工作,加密气候变化代用资料的空间覆盖度,并结合历史气候模拟等手段,深入开展气候变化动力学机制研究;而且还需要进一步利用地理资源所在本领域已积累的研究优势,开展历史时期的气候变化与人类相互作用等方面的研究。
郑景云, 邵雪梅, 郝志新, 葛全胜 . 过去2000年中国气候变化研究[J]. 地理研究, 2010 , 29(9) : 1561 -1570 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2010090003
In this paper we summarize the major progress made by the scientists at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences on the study of climate change in China during the past 2000 years and provide insight to future research activities. Faced with hot scientific issue in the field from international projects, much research has been performed at the Institute in the past decade, and many new and significant results are produced in the areas of collection and compilation of various proxy data, construction of an extensive database of climate change in China, reconstruction of temperature and precipitation series, and analyses of the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change for the past 2000 years. In the future, in addition to reconstructions of climate change based on high-resolution proxies, such as historical documents and tree-ring data, we need to increase the density and spatial coverage of the proxy data. Using the approach of historical climate modeling, the forcing mechanisms of climate change can be examined. With the advantage of the accumulated research results at the Institute, we can also investigate the interactions between climate change and human society during historical periods.
Key words： climate change; progress; perspective; the past 2000 years; China
[1] 张丕远. 中国历史气候变化. 济南: 山东科学技术出版社, 1996.
[2] 郑景云, 郝志新, 狄小春. 历史环境变化数据库的建设与应用. 地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 146~154.
[3] 吴祥定. 树木年轮与气候变化. 北京: 气象出版社, 1990.
[4] 邵雪梅, 方修琦, 刘洪滨, 等. 柴达木东缘山地千年祁连圆柏年轮定年分析. 地理学报, 2003, 58(1): 90~100.
[5] Shao X M, Wang S Z, Zhu H F, et al. A 3585-year ring-width dating chronology of Qilian juniper from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Iawa Journal, 2009, 30(4): 379~394
[6] Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu, He Fanneng, et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of reclamation and cultivation and its driving factors in parts of China during the last three centuries,Progress in Natural Science. 2004, 14(7): 605~613.
[7] Yang X Y, Yu J C, Lu H Y, et al. Starch grain analysis reveals function of grinding stone tools at Shangzhai site, Beijing. Science in China series D-Earth Sciences, 2009, 52(8): 1164~1171.
[8] Zheng J Y, Ge Q S, Hao Z X, et al. Spring phenophases in recent decades over eastern China and its possible link to climate changes. Climatic Change, 2006, 77(3~4): 449~462.
[9] 郑景云, 葛全胜, 方修琦,等.基于历史文献重建的近2000年中国温度变化比较研究, 气象学报, 2007, 65(3): 428~439.
[10] Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixin. Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2003, 47(21): 1826~1831.
[11] Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Fang X Q, et al. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene, 2003, 13(6): 933~940.
[12] 郑景云, 葛全胜, 方修琦,等. 从中国过去2000年温度变化看20世纪增暖. 地理学报, 2002, 57(6): 631~638.
[13] Ge Quansheng, Fang Xiuqi, Zheng Jingyun. Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale. Progress in Natural Science,2003, 13(8): 601~606
[14] Liu X H, Qin D H, Shao X M, et al. Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences. 2005, 48(4): 521~529
[15] Liu Xiaohong, Shao Xuemei, Zhao Liangiu,et al. Dendroclimatic temperature record derived from tree-ring width and stable carbon isotope chronologies in the middle Qilian Mountains, China. Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research, 2007, 39(4): 651~657.
[16] Zhu H F, Zheng Y H, Shao X M, et al. Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2008, 53(24): 3914~3920.
[17] Zheng J Y, Wang W C, Ge Q S, et al. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2006, 17(3): 579~592.
[18] Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Hao Z X, et al. Reconstruction of historical climate in China: High-resolution precipitation data from Qing Dynasty Archives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005, 86(5): 671~679.
[19] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng, et al. Relationship between precipitation and the infiltration depth over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley.Progress in Natural Science, 2008, 18(9): 1123~1128.
[20] Zheng J Y, Hao Z X, Ge Q S. Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences, 2005,48(12):2182~2193.
[21] Ge Quansheng, Guo Xifeng, Zheng Jingyun, et al. Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736.Chinese Science Bulletin, 2008, 53(1):107~114
[22] Wang W C, Ge Q S, Hao Z X, et al. Rainy season at Beijing and Shanghai since 1736. Journal of the Meteorol Ogical Society of Japan, 2008, 86(5): 827~834.
[23] Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixin, Tian Yanyu,et al. The rainy season in the northwestern part of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 18th and 19th centuries. Quaternary International, 2010, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.02.025.
[24] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng. Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736~2000). Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2008, 18(1): 17~25.
[25] Ge Q S, Hao Z X, Tian Y Y, et al. The rainy season in the Northwestern part of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 18th and 19th centuries. Quaternary International, 2010, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.02.025.
[26] 邵雪梅, 梁尔源, 黄磊, 等. 柴达木盆地东北部过去1437a的降水变化重建. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(3): 122~126.
[27] Bradley R S, Hughes M K, Diaz H F. Climate in Medieval Time. Science, 2003, 302(5644): 404~405.
[28] Yancheva G, Nowaczyk NR, Mingram J, et al.Anti-correlation of summer/winter monsdoons?Reply. Nature, 2007, 450: E8~E9, doi:10.1038/nature06339.
[29] Lee H F, Fok L, Zhang D D. Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium. Climatic Change, 2008, 88(2): 131~156, doi: 10.1007/s10584~007~9329~1.
[30] Jones P D, Mann M E. Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 2004, 42: RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143.
[31] Jones P D, Briffa K R, Osborn T J, et al. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: A review of current status and future prospects. The Hol Ocene, 2009, 19: 3~49, doi: 10.1177/0959683608098952.
[32] D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Li J B. Increased Eurasian-tropical temperature amplitude difference in recent centuries: Implications for the Asian monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33: L22706, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027507.
[33] Holmes J A, Zhang J W, Chen F H, et al. Paleoclimatic implications of an 850-year oxygen-isotope record from the northern Tibetan Plateau. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34: L23403, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032228.
[34] National Research Council. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 Years. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press, 2006.141.
[35] Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Tian Y Y, et al. Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical documents in China by different studies. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 28(8): 1007~1024.
[36] Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Hao Z X, et al. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37: L03703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041281.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |