近些年来,由于经济的发展,废水排放总量的增加,近岸海域水环境恶化已成为大连市主要的生态环境问题。本文运用模糊模式识别模型研究了大连市近岸海域水环境质量的动态变化,并对水环境的影响因素进行分析,从而建立了水环境与其影响因素之间的数学模型。在此研究基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)模型进行水环境调控,提出了大连市水环境经济协调型发展方案,这对于大连市的可持续发展具有重大意义。

Pollution in the nearshore waters is a maior environmental issue in Dalian How to dominate the water environment and ensure economic growth simultaneously is an urgent issue to be tackled at present. This paper firstly introduces the fuzzy pattern recognition model into the dynamic analysis on environmental quality of the nearshore waters of Dalian.The results show that the water environmental quality of Dalian Bay is the worst and is becoming deteriorated It then establishes multiregression model for characteristic value (H) and affecting factors of water environmental quality.The results show that the quantity of waste water disharge, the per capita output value of the tertiary industries and the city sewage ratio are the major affecting factors to water environment in the nearshore waters It finally establishes SD model for the major affecting factors of water environment and designs three models (traditional development type,water environment standing type and the type of harmonious development for water environment and economy) through feedback regulating The simulation results show that the third model is most reasonable and feasible for it takes into account either the improvement of water environment in the nearshore waters or economic development The research is of significance to the environmental protection of the nearshore waters and sustainable development of Dalian city