土地利用的基本竞争模型是土地利用类型变化驱动力分析的理论基础。把握土地利用个体目标和社会目标的关系,尤其是它们之间的矛盾及其地区差异,是进行土地利用变化驱动力宏观分析的有效途径。工业化城市化与粮食安全之间的矛盾、农业发展与生态环境保护之间的矛盾是现阶段我国土地利用变化的基本矛盾。土地利用变化的驱动力在空间上表现出较大的差异。本文选取11项自然和社会经济指标,分省份计算了驱动力指数。结果表明:西部地区以生存型经济福利驱动和环境安全驱动为主,而东部地区以比较经济福利驱动和食物安全驱动为主

Land use is one complex system, which is affected by many factors, including both socio economic elements and natural resources and environment This paper firstly established a framework for macro analysis on the driving forces of land use change in China, in which economic welfare, environmental welfare, the need for food security and the advancement of science and technology are the main forces contributing to the land use changes Then the paper analyzed the basic contradictions in the land use change in recent years on the basis of current situation of land use and economic development in China In the third section, according to the analytical framework established firstly and the basic contradictions in the land use change, and on the basis of the land use data and other related socio economic documents in recent years, this paper analyzed and computed the indexes of the driving forces of the land use change and represented their spatial distribution in China By the distribution of these driving forces, the whole China can be seen as three distinct sub areas: Tibet southwest sub area, central northwest sub area and east sub area, each of which takes on different features in respect of the driving forces of land use changes As indicated in this paper, the economic welfare is the fundamental impetus to the land use changes, and the environmental welfare and the need for food security are also important factors in China The future land use change is ultimately decided by the performance of these factors and their interactions