辽河三角洲是海平面上升的主要脆弱区。本文以GIS为平台 ,以盘锦市 1∶10 0 0 0 0地形图和土地利用图作为底图 ,结合社会经济统计数据 ,获得地面 1km× 1km范围高程值以及评估单元基础数据 ,并计算出在没有防护、不同潮位背景、海平面上升不同高度的条件下 ,辽河三角洲未来海平面上升将淹没的土地面积、受灾人口和经济损失、生态损失 ,以及不同土地利用类型的淹没面积及相应的经济价值。可为制定区域减灾防灾战略提供科学依据

This paper takes Geographical Information System (GIS) as a platform, gains altitude values (range of 1 km×1 km ), 3D map and basic data of evaluation in the studied area of the city of Panjin, based on the 1∶100,000 scale relief map and land use map as well as socio-economic statistic data. Submerged land area and potential loss are assessed for the case of no defence,different sea-level rise and high water level, respectively. The concrete conclusion is as follows. First of all, the potential effects on land include: Firstly, for no defence(the same as hereinafter) and average high water level, submerged land composing mostly of coastal villages and towns extends along coastline, and submerged area is 869-949km 2 or 21% to 24%. Secondly, for the historic highest water level,submerged area is 2,444-3,259km 2 or 61% to 84% with Dawa county submerged almost. Thirdly, the submerged area in Liaohe River Delta (Panjin) is 23%, but Zhujiang River is 7%, Changjiang River 18% and Huanghe River 5%. Next, potential population affected by sea-level rise contains: Firstly, for the average high water level, population affected in 1998 is 4 to 6 (if considered increasing, then 7 in 2030 and 14 in 2100)ten thousand or 3% to 5%. Secondly, for the historic highest water level, population affected in 1998 is 65-106(97 in 2030 and 267 in 2100)ten thousand or 55% to 90%. Again, potential economic losses by sea-level rise have: Firstly, for the average high water level, economic loss in 1998 is 8-9( if considered increasing, then 40 in 2030 and 1,328 in 2100)hundred million yuan or 7% to 9%. Secondly, for the historic highest water level, economic loss in 1998 is 62-93(297 in 2030 and 13,256 in 2100)hundred million yuan or 58% to 87%. Finally, potential environment loss of wetland by sea-level rise includes: Firstly, for the average high water level, environment loss in 1998 is 179(if considered increasing, then 872 in 2050 and 924 in 2100)hundred million yuan or 45% to 49%. Secondly, for historic highest water level, environment loss is 328(4,235 in 2050 and 4,665 in 2100) hundred million yuan or 83% to 93%. Relevant preventive measures such as sea wall defence reinforcement, adjusting and renewal wetland environment, establisment of flood insurance system, and formulation of integrated coastal management plan are put forward. And scientific basis for constituting regional strategies to mitigate and prevent disasters are provided.