收稿日期: 2002-04-28
修回日期: 2002-07-10
网络出版日期: 2002-10-15
基金资助
国家自然科学基金资助项目(49771004)
Site-specific debris flow vulnerability assessment
Received date: 2002-04-28
Revised date: 2002-07-10
Online published: 2002-10-15
泥石流易损度是指在一定区域和给定时段内 ,由于泥石流灾害而可能导致的该区域内所存在的一切人、财、物的潜在最大损失。易损度评价因子主要分为财产指标和人口指标两大类。财产指标包括建筑资产、交通设施资产、生命线工程资产、个人财产和土地资源 ;人口指标包括人口年龄、受教育程度、富裕状况、人口自然增长率和人口密度。财产指标和人口指标具有不同的计量单位因而不能直接相加。本文提出的“转换赋值函数”解决了人、财、物统一标度和综合表达的难题 ,使泥石流易损度定量表达为财产指标转换函数赋值与人口指标转换函数赋值之和的二分之一的平方根。易损度取值范围介于 0～ 1或 0 %～ 10 0 %之间
刘希林, 莫多闻 . 泥石流易损度评价[J]. 地理研究, 2002 , 21(5) : 569 -577 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2002050005
Debris flow vulnerability is the potential maximum losses in people, property and materials due to potential debris flow damaging phenomenon for a specified area and during a reference period, which is measured on a scale of 0 (0%) to 1 (100%). Debris flow vulnerability is related to the huge and complex socioeconomic and environmental system, which is mainly classified into two categories of property and population. The property index includes the assets of building, transportation infrastructure, lifeline, personal property, and land resources. Site-specific debris flow vulnerability is a complex-function of the property index. The population index includes the age, education level, wealth situation, natural growth rate of population, and population density. Site-specific debris flow vulnerability is a sum-production-function of the property index. Monetary unit is used to measure the property value, while the value of person may not be simply measured by money. Thus the property index and population index with different units cannot be directly added. In this paper, the transformation functions have successfully provided identical scale and dimensionless expression for both the indexes of property and of population, which make the vulnerability possibly to be expressed synthetically as the sum of the values of property and population. Mathematically debris flow vulnerability is computed by the square root of the half sum of the transformed values of property index and population index.
[1] Maskrey A.Disaster Mitigation:A Communit y Based Approach.Oxford:Oxfam,1989.1～100.
[2] Corsanego A,Giorgini G,Roggeri G.Rapid evaluation of an indicator of seismic vulnerabilit y in small urban nuclei.Natural Hazards,1993,8:109～120.
[3] Kappos A J,Tylianidis S K C,Pitilakis K.Development of seismic risk scenarios based on a hybrid met hod of vulnerability assessment.Natural Hazards,1998,17(2):177～192.
[4] Chen Y,Chen Q,Chen L.Vulnerabilit y analysis in eart hquake loss estimation.Natural Hazards,2001,23:349～364.
[5] Oberlin G,Gilard O,Givone P.The potentialities of a risk disaggregation between vulnerabilit y and hazard:example of t he relative stabilit y induced for flooding risk alleviation.In:Casale R and Margottini C(eds.).Floods and Landslides:Integrated Risk Assessment,Berlin:Springer2Verlag,19991261～277.
[6] Keylock C J,Barbolini M.Snow avalanche impact pressure vulnerability relations for use in risk assessment.CanadianGeotechnical Journal.2001,38:227～238.
[7] Mejia2Navarro M,Wohl E E,Okas S D.Geological Hazards,vulnerability,and risk assessment using GIS:model forGlenwood Springs,Colorado.Geomorphology,1994,10:331～354.
[8] King D.Uses and limitations of socioeconomic indicators of communit y vulnerability to natural hazards:data and disasters in nort hern Australia.Natural Hazards,2001,24(2):147～156.
[9] IU GS,Working group on Landslide,Committee on Risk Assessment.Quantitative risk assessment for slope and landslidet he state of t he art.In:Cruden D M and Fell R(eds.).Landslide Risk Assessment Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,199713～12.
[10] Longhurst R.The assessment of community vulnerability in hazard prone area.The Royal Society,London,31 march1995.Disaster,1995,19(3):269～270.
[11] Xie L.Evolution of seismic damage and losses assessment in urban region of China.In:Shen J,Sun H,Schaefer T L(eds.).Proceedings of U.S.ΠChina Workshop on Natural Disaster Mitigation and Reduction1 Beijing:China OceanPress,1999.351～356.
[12] Tobin G,Montz B E.Natural Hazards:Explanation and Integration.New York:The Guilford Press,1997.1～388.
[13] Deyle R E,French S P,Olshansky R B and Paterson R G.Hazard assessment:t he factual basis for planning and mitigation.In:Burby R J(ed.).Cooperating wit h Nature:Confronting Natural Hazards wit h Land0Use Planning for Sustainable Communities.Washington,D.C.:Joseph Henry Press,1998.119～166.
[14] Panizza M.Environmental Geomorphology.Amsterdam:Elsevier,1996.1～268.
[15] United Nations,Depart ment of Humanitarian Affairs.Mitigating Natural Disasters:Phenomena,Effects and Options AManual for Policy Makers and Planners.New York:United Nations,1991.1～164.
[16] United Nations,Depart ment of Humanitarian Affairs.Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management,DNAΠ93Π36,Geneva,1992.
[17] Alexander D E.Natural Disasters.London:UCL Press Limited,1993.1～632.
[18] Liam Finn W D.Geotechnical aspects of t he estimation and mitigation of eart hquake risk.In:Tucker B E,Rdik E M,Hwang C N(eds.).Issues in Urban Eart hquake Risk,Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1993.35～77.
[19] Fell R,Hartford D.Landslide risk management.In:Cruden D M,Fell R(eds.).Landslide Risk Assessment.Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1997.51～109.
[20] Hurst N W.Risk Assessment:The Human Dimension.Cambridge:The Royal Society of Chemistry,1998.1～101.
[21] Bolt B A,Horn W L,MacDonald G A,Scott R F.Geological Hazards.Berlin:Springer2Verlag,1975.1～328.
[22] 杜兴信,李博.陕西关中地区城市灾害评价.灾害学,1994,9(3):46～52.
[23] 张业成,郑学信.云南省东川市泥石流灾害灾情评估.中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(2):67～76.
[24] 赵士鹏.闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险评估.地理研究,1997,16(1):98～103.
[25] 黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析.北京:北京师范大学出版社,200111～128.
[26] 罗元华,陈崇希.泥石流堆积数值模拟及泥石流灾害风险评估方法.北京:地质出版社,200011～82.
[27] 罗元华,张梁,张业成.地质灾害风险评估方法.北京:地质出版社,1998.1～116.
[28] Solway L.Socio-economic perspective of developing country megacities vulnerable to flood and landslide hazard.In:Casale R,Margottini C(eds.)1Floods and Landslides:Integrated Risk Assessment1Berlin:Springer2Verlag,1999.245～260.
[29] Blaikie P,Cannon T,Gavis I,Wisner B.At Risk:Natural Hazards,People’s Vulnerabilit y,and Disasters.London:Routledge,1994.1～284.
[30] 《跨世纪的中国人口》(综合卷)编委会.跨世纪的中国人口.北京:中国统计出版社,1994.1～447.
[31] Tiedemann H.The economical consequences of floods and landslides.In:Casale R,Margottini C(eds.).Floods andLandslides:Integrated Risk Assessment.Berlin:Springer2Verlag,1999.223～244.
[32] Ngo E B.When disasters and age collide:reviewing vulnerability of t he elderly.Natural Hazards Review,2001,2(2):80～89.
[33] Lavigne F,Thouret J C,Voight B,Suwa H,Sumaryono A.Lahars at Merapi volcano,central Java:an overview.Journal of Volcanology and Geot hermal Research,2000,100:423～456.
[34] Einstein H H.Landslide risk systematic approaches to assessment and management.In:Cruden D M,Fell R(eds.).Landslide Risk Assessment.Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1997.25～50.
[35] Woo G.The Mat hematics of Natural Catastrophes.London:Imperial College Press,1999.1～292.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |