根据 194 9～ 1998年各县 (市 )的统计资料 ,分析了河北省近 5 0年粮食生产的变化历程和空间差异 ,运用灰色系统理论对影响河北省粮食生产的诸因素进行关联动态分析 ,量化了粮食总产量与诸因子的关联程度 ,指出粮食单产、有效灌溉面积和粮食播种面积是影响河北省粮食生产的最重要因素 ,并提出了实现河北省粮食生产可持续发展的基本途径 ,为今后河北省农业可持续发展提供了参考依据

Based on the statistical data at provincial and county levels from 1949 to 1998, the dynamic change of grain production and regional differences are discussed In the last 50 years, the total grain production took on an increasing trend on the whole In the period of 1949～1998, the total grain production increase was 24480 thousand tons with an annualaverage increase of 489 6 thousand tons and the per capita grain production increase was 320 8 kilograms Because of the differences in natural conditions and agricultural history, the spatial difference in grain production increase is very notable The regions with higher annualaverage increase rate of grain production are mainly distributed in the piedmont plains where irrigation conditionsand agricultural base are better such as Shijiazhuang, Handan, Xingtai, Baoding. However, the regions with lowre annualaverage increase rate of grain production are mainly located in the mountainous and hilly areas such as Zhangjiakou, Chengde and the easternplain with poor naturalconditions According to the grey systemtheory, factors affecting grain production are analyzed and correlative degree between factors and grain production is quantitatively measured The results show that per unit area grain yield, effective irrigated area and grain sown area are the most important factors that affect grain production Moreover, the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain production are discussed such as relying on scientific progress to increase per unit area grain yield, protecting arable land and stabilizinggrain sown area, popularizing technology of intercropping and improving multi crop index, strengthening capital constructionof farmland and enhancing the synthetic ability of agricultural production This paper provides a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Hebei Province