本文在对“告别三峡游”的发展和问题进行介绍、描述和预测的基础上 ,从三峡游的可持续发展出发 ,应用事件旅游、系统动力学、旅游营销学的理论 ,对“告别三峡游”进行系统和动态的分析 ,试图从理论上论证三峡游下一阶段发展应当注意的问题 ,为类似的旅游运作提供借鉴。结论是“告别三峡游”作为一种特殊的促销手段 ,可以短时促进旅游的发展 ,但是也具有极高的风险性 ,不能随便使用

Based on the reviewing the development of Three-Gorges Program, the problem of the Farewell Tour of Three Gorges promotional program has been identified. By applying the event tourism,system dynamics and tourism marketing theories, a systematic and dynamics approach is adopted to analyze the internal structures of the Three Gorges Tourism Development and to explain and to predict the dynamic impacts of the Farewell Tour of Three Gorges. It is expected that the study provides not only an analytical framework to the similar problems but also the cautions to adopt the high risky promotional strategies. A simple model of Three Gorges Tourism Development based on the Bass model of product life cycle was constructed to replicate the basic behavior.The model is composed of four sectors thatare linked by feedback structures: tourist sector, attractionsector, public infrastructure sector and service facility sector. Tourist sector is the most important. It has been identified that tourists of Three Gorges are determined by the potential tourists, increasing rate of potential tourists, potential tourists who have lost interests before making decisions to travel and the tourists who make revisitation decisions. These four variables are governed by the feedback structures which are characterized by the delays and non-linear functions and therefore misconception is prevailing in the tourism management. It has been found out that although Farewell Tour of Three Gorges can induce more potential tourists to make travel decisions within a short time, the revisitation tourists, and the new potential tourists decline. As a result, the potential tourists reduce sharply right after the Farewell Tour of Three Gorges and can only increase very slowly in the long run if remediationactions are taken. Similar patterns are observed to the newly added tourists who visit Three Gorges. Apart from the reduction of tourists, other consequences, such as quick expansion of service capacity, vigorous and non-regulated competition, the damaged investment environment for long term public infrastructure and new attraction projects and delayed government actions accelerate the vicious cycle of the decline of Three Gorges Tourism after the implementation of the Promotional Program. The study concluded that Farewell Tour of Three Gorges is a very risky promotional program. The program in fact only benefits a few in the short term and brings long term negative effect to the tourism industry of Three Gorges Tourism.