本文依据 1992 - 2 0 0 0年北京地区 2 0 0 0多个土地开发项目统计资料 ,通过实证对城市土地空间开发的理论模式进行研究。结果表明 ,城市特定区域的土地开发 ,表现为乘数效应作用下的逻辑斯蒂增长。根据模型对各环线和扇面模拟的相关系数高达 0 95以上。在此基础上 ,结合北京举办奥运会带来的巨大投资规模 ,预测北京大都市土地开发的趋势

Urbanization process has come into a rapid growth period since the 1990s. Beijing, the capital city of China, is stepping into a metropolitan developmental stage. The investment for city construction and real estate will be more than 50 billion yuan each year within next 5 years based on Beijing International Metropolitan Planning for holding Olympic Games in Beijing, 2008. However, Beijing's real estate market has entered a booming period in 2001 when a new real estate project opened out each day in average. Moreover, up to 100 real estate projects have been developed in some of the spatial points within the central city fringe. According to characters of location in urban land development, this paper tries to find a growing pattern which is more suitable to describe spatial characteristics of urban land development. Based on analyzing more than 2000 land samples in Beijing's land market from 1992 to 2000, a logistic growing pattern of urban land development has been illustrated in Beijing metropolitan area both in concentric areas and radiate sectors. Four stages, i.e.,preliminary, accelerated, decelerated and saturated stages, are in the life circle of spatial land development within a limited area based on the principle of diminishing marginal benefit. Although some of the areas,such as old downtown and Shijingshan fun-shaped area, have been in a pre-saturated stage, most parts are in an accelerated stage according to the results of analysis and prediction in the paper.